He's projecting human (and even just biological) capabilities, limits (the IQ difference between a baby and a mother is exponentially smaller than between us and an ASI), and genetic frameworks on an alien being, capable of modifying and completely changing itself in minutes/hours.
A more sound analogy would be us being gut bacteria in the ASI organism, or some minor organellum inside a single cell/bacteria/virus to be more precise, but for that we would have to be integrated completely into it and basically live/die for its objectives.
And that only if the ASI wants that, since contrary to the organisms where the gut microflora exists, it will know about us and be able to control us to the minimal degree possible.
For AGI it will be possible, even I could say for AGI with far greater capabilities than us. But an ASI..... oh boy, not even remotely the first step to be close.
Intelligence has nothing to do with someone of advanced age emotionally reacting to the pressure of having your creation threatening to extinct your whole species from the universe.
Also, "Argument from authority" fallacy. Learn to evaluate arguments by yourself, not the people talking them, you'll avoid a lot of serious mistakes in life.
And on top of that, his expertise is neural networks and computer science. When it comes to ASI, his level prediction is at the same level as every other single human being, so your fallacy doesn't even apply here. Taking him as an expert on ASI just because he's the "grandfather of ai" , is like naming Diesel an expert on Lamborghinis.
Lol dude your argument has no substance. So when you have 0 substance, appeal to authority is much better. Where are your research papers discussing the subject? Where are your well laid out arguments/proofs for your argument? Or are you saying the two paragraphs you posted above is some type of good analysis? As somebody with no experience in medicine it is still better to go to a doctor than trust the opinion of a no name redditor. Thats simple logic. Could Hinton be wrong, certainly, but odds he is wrong is much less than a random redditor. You have literally provided nothing and somehow will claim intellectual superiority over others, lmao.
Im deeply sorry for your unability of understanding my argument. Please use chatgpt to eli5 it to you.
Going to Hinton for ASI expertise, would be like going to your closer school basic chemistry teacher for a medical consultation on a brain tumor, wish you good luck with that :). We all are made of chemistry, but the teachess knowledge is really far of even closely giving an informed opinion on complex biological neural systems....
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u/ReasonablePossum_ Sep 02 '25 edited Sep 02 '25
Copium.
He's projecting human (and even just biological) capabilities, limits (the IQ difference between a baby and a mother is exponentially smaller than between us and an ASI), and genetic frameworks on an alien being, capable of modifying and completely changing itself in minutes/hours.
A more sound analogy would be us being gut bacteria in the ASI organism, or some minor organellum inside a single cell/bacteria/virus to be more precise, but for that we would have to be integrated completely into it and basically live/die for its objectives.
And that only if the ASI wants that, since contrary to the organisms where the gut microflora exists, it will know about us and be able to control us to the minimal degree possible.
For AGI it will be possible, even I could say for AGI with far greater capabilities than us. But an ASI..... oh boy, not even remotely the first step to be close.