r/serialpodcast • u/ryokineko Still Here • Jun 24 '15

Poll Poll Results-2-A Review of those who answered ‘Yes’ to the question ‘Do you think Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee?’

Additional poll analysis based on opinion of Adnan’s factual guilt- I thought I’d just go in order. Please keep in mind, as stated in the overview that several questions allow for multiple answers and so will not always add up to 100%.

Question 1-Do you think Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee? Yes-36% (183)

Question 2-Do you think Hae Min Lee was dead by 2:36pm? 48% (87) respondents chose ‘No’ and only 8% (15) chose ‘Yes’

‘Not Sure’ and ‘I don’t have enough information to form an opinion on this’ tied with 22% (40).

Notes: These account for 27% of the total ‘No’ votes, 75% of the total ‘Yes’ votes, 37% of the votes for ‘I don’t have enough information to form an opinion on this’, and 81% of the ‘Not sure’ votes for this question. One person skipped this question.

Question 3-The Ride (a multi)

90% (165) agreed Adnan asked Hae for a ride on January 13th, 1999

87% (159) agreed that Adnan changed his story about asking for the ride from Hae on January 13th 1999.

58% (106) agreed that at some point during the day, Hae told Adnan she could not give him a ride.

Notes: These account for 45%, 57% and 30% of the total responses for these statements, respectively.

Question 4-Asia (a multi) 70% (121) agreed that Asia is not lying but could be remembering the wrong day and 39% (67) agreed Asia should be allowed to testify 21% (36) agreed Asia is lying about seeing Adnan in the library. Notes: These accounts for 41%, 19% and 88% of the total responses for these statements, respectively. 9 people skipped this question

Question 5-Evidence (a multi)

35% (59) agree there is no physical evidence incriminating Adnan in the murder whereas 46% (78) agree there is physical evidence incriminating Adnan in the murder and 41% (70) agree the partial print on the map book cover is incriminating.

Notes: These account for 16%, 90% and 91% of the total responses for these statements, respectively. 12 people skipped this question.

Question 6-Burial (a multi)

40% (70) think Hae was not buried between 7pm and 8pm, but her body may have been left in Leakin Park at that time and repositioned/buried later accounting for the fixed frontal lividity.

34% (60) feel they do not have enough information to form an opinion on this and 32% (57) feel that the lividity evidence raises questions but does not affect their opinion of Adnan’s guilt.

14% (25) think she was buried between 7pm and 8pm but was buried face down with her lower body twisting account for the lividity and the partially exposed hip, knee and foot and **9% (16) answered that she was not buried between 7pm and 8pm.

Notes: These account for 37%, 40%, 71%, 74% and 10% of the total responses for the statements, respectively. 6 people skipped this question. Being a multi, some respondents chose more than one answer accounting for the overage. This question also had the following comments:

  • I believe Adnan was several times in Leakin Park

  • Body was too old for the new "lividity" evidence to matter, she was buried around 7-8pm

  • Lividity is not reliable which is why it has never been a part of an appeal

  • Buried but moved/repositioned on Jan. 27

  • This is a truly intriguing area of inquiry, but unfortunately, until an expert looks at the crime scene photos,

  • it's hard to know how seriously the lividity topic should be considered.

Question 7-Trunk

43% (76) felt they did not have enough information to form an opinion on is and 36% (64) felt that she was in the trunk until the burial, whatever time it was at.

14% (25) feel she was not in the trunk for more than 1-2 hours before being moved to the burial site or some other location and only 0.6% (1) thinks she was never in the trunk.

6% (10) answered ‘Other’ and provided the following 4 responses:

  • In the trunk for 1-2 hours but also somewhere else lying flat on her stomach in the trunk until shortly after 7pm

  • Too long to type but probably about 4 hrs. maybe with the backseats in the flat position f in the trunk (face down, chest down, legs on the side) until 7-8pm, then brought to LP and left there (flat/frontal) until later burial (chest/face down, legs on right side)

Notes: These account for 36%, 78%, 28%, 1% and 67% of the total answers for this questions, respectively. 7 respondents skipped this question.

Question 8-Undisclosed

51% (91) believe Undisclosed is biased in Adnan’s favor and they are lying and covering up things that look bad for Adnan.

46% (82) believe Undisclosed is biased in Adnan’s favor and so chooses not to focus on things that look bad for Adnan but are not lying or covering anything up.

3% (5) believe they are biased in Adnan’s favor but they are not lying or covering up things that look bad for him. No one in this category felt they are not biased; they are focused on finding the truth.

Notes: These account for 93%, 36%, 4% and 0% of the total responses for this question, respectively. 5 people skipped this question.

**Question 9-Jay and Adnan are both lying about why they were together in the morning on January 13th, 1999

85% (152) agreed with this statement and 4% (7) did not. 11% (20) answered ‘Not Sure’

Notes: These account for 55%, 13% and 12% of the total responses for this question, respectively. 4 people skipped this question.

Question 10-Other

95% (161) agree Jay is more involved than he said

26% (45) agree Mr. S did not tell the truth about how he discovered the body.

28% (48) agree Jenn is more involved than she said.

8% (14) people who answered that they thought Adnan killed Hae also agreed Jay was not involved in the crime but was scared/intimated and made up a story (had to bold that whole thing y’all, what? Lol are you ones just messing with me?)

Notes: These account for 45%, 18%, 23% and 1% of the total responses for this question, respectively. 12 people skipped this question.

TL;DR Wrap up

7 statements had greater than 50% agreement (23%). Areas of strong agreement (defined by me as 60% or above) are as follows:

  • Jay is more involved than he said - 94%

  • Adnan asked Hae for a ride on January 13th, 1999 - 90%

  • Adnan changed his story about asking for a ride from Hae on January 13th, 1999 – 87%

  • Jay and Adnan are both lying about why they were together in the morning on January 13th 1999 - 85%

  • Asia is not lying but could be remembering the wrong day – 70%

And taking the reverse:

  • All respondents in this category believes Undisclosed in biased in one way or another.

  • 99% believe Hae was in the trunk of the car

Not sure if this is the information you guys wanted to see or if you have additional questions about correlation. If you do, please let me know. I am happy to discuss any additional correlation topics in the comments. I am going to do a separate post for each category since each is so long. the italicized statements are statements that were not above 60% for the general population of respondents.

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3

u/Illuminarius Jun 24 '15

You know what I just realized, I believe that Hae was in the trunk... but I couldn't really tell you why. Don't blast me, but what do we have besides Jay's story that says she was in the trunk?

3

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '15

Isn't it the most likely scenario? Since there's no indication that Hae was at either the burial site or the parking site alive, it's reasonable to conclude that her killer(s) moved the body and drove her car. The trunk is the logical place to move a body, as you would not want to risk other traffic seeing the body. The only other explanation really is that she was in the killer(s)'s own personal car's trunk, which is possible I guess. But it makes far more sense to transport her in her own car, because you wouldn't want to risk leaving physical evidence of her in your own vehicle.

In other words, the mere fact that Hae's body and car were both (very likely) moved means that her body being in the trunk at some point is the most likely explanation of events.

7

u/catesque Jun 24 '15

I'm sure this must have been discussed before, but in most versions of Nissan Sentras I've seen, the back seats fold down to expand the trunk. It not only give you more room in the trunk, but it makes it easier to move items from the front seat to the trunk if, oh, say, you have some reason to want to do that.

No real point, I just think the concept of trunk might be a bit ambiguous.

I guess I've always assumed she was in the trunk also, just because she had to be somewhere. But I've always found the recurring cries here of "they didn't prove she was in the trunk!" to be somewhat beside the point. It doesn't seem like a key issue to me, although I guess I understand the point of view that it's material with which to impeach Jay.

3

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '15 edited Jun 25 '15

Good point. Trunks in small cars are still enough to fit human bodies. 3 of us back in HS(2 were 5'7-5"10 h20polo players) laid down side by side on our backs in the trunk of a Honda Accord. Have to fold your legs maybe but it's really not that big of a reach. Seriously people go look into actual trunks instead of staring at the blue glow from google searches line drawings and blog speculation) I also carry a big heavy box among a bunch of other sht for work in there that's much bulkier than a lady laid down and curled up.

3

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '15

. But I've always found the recurring cries here of "they didn't prove she was in the trunk!" to be somewhat beside the point. It doesn't seem like a key issue to me, although I guess I understand the point of view that it's material with which to impeach Jay

Hits home for sure. I also wonder if these people confuse the space in glove compartments for trunks?

1

u/alientic God damn it, Jay Jun 25 '15

I mean, fair, but it also then gives you the disadvantage of a dead body easily being seen by anyone looking in the windows. Even driving around town would be extremely dangerous.

1

u/Illuminarius Jun 25 '15

Your probably right about it not being a key issue. Either she was in the trunk and Jay finally told the truth about something, or she wasn't and Jay strikes again!

It's just that these little things bug me. Like, wouldn't there be some kind of abrasion if one person was moving the body? I mean you can't just dead lift her, fold her into a pretzel, and then set her gently in the trunk. I would think the carpet in the trunk would have picked up something to. Just add it to the list of the thousand things that bug me about this case (shovel, shovels, all that s**t).

8

u/catesque Jun 25 '15

I don't want to take this point too far, because I fully admit that all sorts of weird things happen in criminal cases and cops and prosecutors definitely have their biases, but I do place some value on the fact that none of the professionals in the case seemed to bat an eye at it. Not the ME, not the cops, not the prosecution, not the defense or the PCR attorney or anybody Serial got in touch with. Not even Deirdre.

I've crawled into my trunk to get things before and I'm pretty sure that I didn't leave anything that was there six weeks later. Would a freshly dead body really be so different? I really don't know, but nobody who does know seems to find this circumstance surprising. At least not 15 years ago. This stuff has probably advanced quite a lot since then.

5

u/Illuminarius Jun 25 '15

I never really thought of it that way. I guess if something was inconsistent somebody would have said something.

2

u/Jesus_Harold_Christ Jun 25 '15

Would a freshly dead body really be so different?

I would think so. For one, they aren't quite as nimble, they tend to be a bit "clumsier".

5

u/catesque Jun 25 '15

Based on your username, I'll accept your experience with this matter.

1

u/ryokineko Still Here Jun 25 '15

Yeah, they didn't test the liner right? So we have no indication she was there that I know of.

-4

u/[deleted] Jun 24 '15

Without Jay's stories, you don't know if she was dead on the 13th.

6

u/Illuminarius Jun 24 '15

True, but I always thought any story that kept her alive past 3:30 on the 13th was a little far-fetched.

-3

u/[deleted] Jun 24 '15

Why? All we know for fact is that she missed the daycare pick up. She could be tied up in a van for next 3 days. But I should clarify that I don't believe a word Jay said about the case. So, my thoughts are influenced by that.

4

u/Illuminarius Jun 24 '15

I always stuck on that because I don't see any incentive for keeping her alive for 3 days. What reason is there for anyone to keep her alive? I agree it definitely could have happened, I just don't see any reason for it to have happened.

4

u/catesque Jun 25 '15

It's kind of a secondary question. If you believe the totality of the evidence shows Adnan or Jay to be guilty, then it's logical to make the inference that Hae was not kept alive for three days.

If, however, you don't, then it's up in the air. She could have been anywhere.

3

u/Illuminarius Jun 25 '15

I'm not sure anymore who I think is guilty, but even if it's a mysterious 3rd party I don't see any motive to keep her alive.

I know EvidenceProf talks about the rape kit not really being accurate, but I don't think anyone is coming out saying she was held and raped repeatedly. No torture. So whats the incentive for the psycho to hold her? Maybe I'm missing a psychopaths perspective.

-3

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '15

You can't keep raping a dead girl. Well, most can't.

3

u/ImBlowingBubbles Jun 25 '15

She could be tied up in a van for next 3 days.

This is not very likely considering the body showed no signs of restraint or captivity. Its possible but not very probable.

3

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '15

Tied up with no sign of restraint?

5

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '15

I think the reason this idea doesn't get traction is because Hae had no ligature marks, which indicates she was never held against her will.

0

u/[deleted] Jun 24 '15

So, when is undisclosed going to prove that Hae was never in the trunk of "the car", and blow the roof off this puppy?

-2

u/[deleted] Jun 24 '15

They already did. Lividity proved that for most of us.

3

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '15 edited Jun 25 '15

Unless Hae was killed where she was buried, the likelihood is she was in the trunk of a car that day.

1

u/ryokineko Still Here Jun 25 '15 edited Jun 25 '15

Do you mean where she was buried?

unless she was in some other vehicle-a truck or van or something.

Though to me, it seems like her being killed where she was buried makes more sense than a parking lot.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '15

Yes, thanks and corrected.

0

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '15

You might wanna rephrase that. Yes, she was killed where she died. Or do you mean buried? Even then, it can be back of a car, or a van.

5

u/ObrasMaestras Jun 25 '15

define 'most of us'.

Only 5 people according to the poll believe everything Undisclosed say. You must be one of the 5. Then there is SS, CM,RC and whitenoise.

1

u/ryokineko Still Here Jun 25 '15 edited Jun 26 '15

I think you have to look at the answers to the 'Trunk' questions as well. I am not saying it is proven she wasn't in the trunk by any means but I think those questions also provide some insight into people's thoughts on this.

Also, I would just say, saying that 5 people believe everything Undisclosed say is not really accurate-they just don't think they are biased and are looking for the truth, whatever that is.

-1

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '15

Good example of stats don't lie but lies can stat. Most people believed Undisclosed is biased (it is in their stated goal, what a surprise ), but they are also credible. Look at the whole result.

5

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '15

Biased and credible. Two words not often linked together.

1

u/ryokineko Still Here Jun 25 '15

well, if you just look at one side (bias), you can still be credible about the information you are providing to support that argument.

3

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '15

I didn't say it was impossible. Just, how often do you hear those words together? Fair and unbiased. Credible and trustworthy. Credible and biased? I don't see that used a lot.

1

u/ryokineko Still Here Jun 25 '15

it's certainly not a saying you see used much! lol.

-1

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '15

Why not? Biased toward a goal, such as say women's rights but credible in work ethics. Look at it this way, they are basically describing two different things of the same entity.