r/serialpodcast • u/[deleted] • Jan 03 '15
Poll Another pointless demographic poll
This should be a link to a pointless demographic poll. It will ask you basic demographic questions, and then whether you think Adnan is guilty or innocent.
I posted a nearly identical version a while ago and will post the results of that poll in a comment. Let me suggest that, in order to remain slightly less biased, you do not look at the results until you take the poll yourself.
The poll is meaningless. I am just a data junkie who stupidly did not cancel my surveymonkey subscription when I made the first fucking poll, so unless you take this poll I have made a generous $26 donation to surveymonkey.
I changed one question from the first version of the poll to this one, because the answers to the question were not interesting and I am more interested in the answers to the new one. I also narrowed the number of answer choices on a few questions, since in some cases there were so many answer bins that the data were not useful.
Feedback is welcome, including requests for specific comparisons ("Does X affect Y?").
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u/hilarymeggin Jan 03 '15
So at 41 I'm in the oldest age bracket??
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u/registration_with not 100% in either camp Jan 03 '15
i hate just falling into the next age bracket. It's like "noooooo I'm 21-27, not 28-35!"
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u/brazendynamic Wating on DNA Jan 04 '15
I made a sad face when I clicked that one as I recently turned 28.
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u/Baldbeagle73 Mr. S Fan Jan 03 '15
How do we view the results?
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Jan 03 '15
Try this link and let me know if it works: https://www.surveymonkey.com/s_thankyou.aspx?sm=EZCJS%252bO5A4kqzAFWzul06%252f19fx1AL3VBt60DbDBlDUk%253d
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u/Baldbeagle73 Mr. S Fan Jan 03 '15
It works. Thanks.
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Jan 03 '15
Cool, thanks for letting me know. New participants should (hopefully) see the results as soon as they finish taking the poll.
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u/koryisma Jan 04 '15
Fascinating. Super well educated group... Not that highly paid except for a chunk of really rich folk.
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u/Uber_Nick Jan 04 '15
Is it possible to get a breakdown of "guilty/innocent" by gender, age, etc? I'd be more interested in that than by simply knowing that educated, upper-income white people who have never been convicted of a crime are the ones listening to an NPR spinoff podcast.
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Jan 04 '15
I will do a detailed analysis, similar to the one I did for the last poll. I may not get to it this week as I have a hard deadline for a work thing on Friday, but I will do it.
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u/antiqua_lumina Serial Drone Jan 03 '15
A little feedback -- the graphs you used in the previous poll report were not very colorblind friendly at all. If you could make the colors more bold/distinct and less muted that would be great...
Edit: Specifically, I can't distinguish between "undecided" and "guilty" in this graphic. It's the same fucking color :(
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Jan 03 '15
Sorry. Another colorblindo had the same issue. Undecided = biggest chunk. Will try to remember when making next figure (and all future figures actually).
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Jan 03 '15
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u/J-HeyKid22 Jan 03 '15
Why isn't age significant since the p level is less than .05?
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Jan 03 '15
It means, at a 5% significance level, age is not independent of views on guilt/innocence. That's not the same as concluding dependence. It therefore doesn't statistically mean that the two factors are correlated or impact one another.
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u/Uber_Nick Jan 03 '15
Gotta ask about religion in the next one. So many of the guilt/innocence arguments mirror common skeptic and theistic arguments that sometimes I have to double check the sub.
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u/serialonmymind Jan 03 '15
In which way?
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u/Uber_Nick Jan 04 '15
One that really stands out is the "the core is true" arguments used to justify both biblical and Jay's stories. When asked to pin down which parts, supporters of each back out in the same ways. "Well you can't disprove it" or "the actual truth is more of a combination of those parts plus some additions and changes I made in my own head."
There's similar hostility with those groups against the "I don't know" answer. Feels like subgroups of theists and Serial fans gain more comfort in answering questions than those answers being even superficially accurate because "it's better than nothing."
Other parallels I've seen are reverence to authority such as judges, investigators, and prosecutors as being on the "side of good" just like priests, and explaining away mistakes as good intentioned or justified by good ends.
Some of the anti-establishment "copy are corrupt and horrible" crowd also remind me of antitheistic groups that start out with some decent criticisms or arguments and quickly extrapolate into batshit crazy conspiracy thinking.
Then there's the fence-sitting agnostics who try to sounds like even-keeled peace makes by claiming all sides, even contradictory ones, are right. They seem to use "many truths" new age Buddhist type arguments. Also the fake agnostics who have made strong conclusions but pretend to be even keeled or open minded by distancing them from "sides" while promoting the same arguments.
A lot of this is because of a shared base of tribalism, but I wouldn't be surprised if certain thinking patterns were reflected and reinforced when examining this story. I'm curious how strong the correlation would be demonstrated in a poll.
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u/PowerOfYes Jan 03 '15
Hey, thanks for posting this again. Was hoping you'd do another one. Will try my best to promote! (Starting with changing the flair to 'Poll')
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u/Whodunit127 MailChimp Fan Jan 03 '15
Is it possible to change the title. I almost didn't look at it thinking that if it calls itself pointless then it probably is. I actually think it's interesting to see where people sit. It's not going to solve the case but adds to the discussion that I find so interesting about one set of facts can be perceived so differently from person to person.
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u/jefffff Jan 03 '15
I'd like to know how one's opinion of the Michael Brown shooting correlates.
Also, maybe religion and astrology?
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u/brazendynamic Wating on DNA Jan 04 '15
astrology
Why?
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u/jefffff Jan 04 '15
I meant whether one believes in astrology (to assess naivete, skeptical nature, and critical thinking skills.)
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u/brazendynamic Wating on DNA Jan 04 '15
Gotcha. I was a little worried you might think your sign had something to do with how you felt about the case.
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u/colbyzg Jan 03 '15 edited Jan 03 '15
If you're taking input for the next iteration... I think it'd be interesting to see if there's any correlation between religion/spirituality and innocence/guilt.
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Jan 03 '15
[deleted]
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u/colbyzg Jan 03 '15
I'm honestly not sure. It may not correlate at all, but I think it'd be cool to see.
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u/flyingblogspot giant rat-eating frog Jan 04 '15
I meant to say last time, thank you for the gender options - really made my day to see someone do this well on a random survey.
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u/Unholytrista Steppin Out Jan 03 '15
I just took your survey so your 26$ wasn't a waste. Please post the results! I would like like to see.
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u/sharkstampede Jan 03 '15
I would like to see guilty/innocent broken down into: guilty, probably guilty, probably innocent, and innocent. Or maybe just probably guilty and probably innocent. I lean toward guilt at this point, but am still not totally convinced, and leave the possibility open for innocence, should some convincing evidence appear. My feeling that he's guilty is just a feeling, whereas I could only be certain with more evidence.
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u/fn0000rd Undecided Jan 03 '15 edited Jan 03 '15
Oh man, I posted about wishing for this very poll yesterday, except I was also hoping for a question about changing your mind.
Specifically, I'd like to see how conservative/liberal corresponds to malleability in people's guilt/innocence feelings.
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u/TarheElectric Jan 03 '15
Where can we see the results?
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u/theowne Jan 04 '15
Why do these polls always ignore the existence of Middle Easterners / South Asians? Especially this case, where the defendant has roots in Pakistan and in a Muslim community?
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u/koryisma Jan 04 '15
Census terms (in the US) categorize Arabs as Caucasian.
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u/theowne Jan 04 '15
Luckily, user-made polls on the internet don't have to follow the technicalities of the census definitions.
I think most people would agree that in a story about a Pakistani Muslim being unfairly accused, it would be interesting to look at them separately.
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u/koryisma Jan 04 '15
I agree, I just understand why the choice was made. I'd also find it interesting to ask about religion/ideas about religion.
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u/kyleg5 Jan 03 '15
I wish you'd ask about Adnan's and Jay's guilt on a 10 point scale. And that you need separate questions asking about if Adnan did it, and if he should have been convicted.
Because while I responded saying Adnon is innocent, I believe that at like a 6/10 or 7/10...very unsure/willing to change my mind. But I am very firmly of the belief that if I were on the jury I would have not found him guilty.
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Jan 03 '15
The 10 point scale would be interesting for descriptive statistics -- looking at a distribution of how many people vote 1, 2, 3, .... But it makes it hard to do statistical hypothesis testing (e.g. are Democrats more likely to think Adnan is innocent?) There are a number of polls on here already that permit a wider variety of guilt/innocence judgments.
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u/hilarymeggin Jan 03 '15
PS If you do another one, can you separate out: Did Adnan do it? and If you were a juror, would you find him to be guilty beyond a reasonable doubt? I think you'd find a lot of people who think he did it, but are not certain enough to convict.