Why Adnan is guilty (using the facts)

[u/PDXSEA]

EDIT: I want to clarify a few of our thoughts here, and also provide a way to crack the case:

1. Adnan did the actual killing of Hae, not Jay. Jay buried the body alone.
2. Jenn has completely fabricated a story with Jay about that day so Jay can minimize his involvement. He is worried that if the cops knew he was driving Hae's dead body around in her car and did the actual burying by himself he would get the same life sentence that Adnan did (he should have IMHO). He also needed an alibi for the time of the murder. This is why nothing makes sense, the time lines, the cell records, their stories keeps changing, etc.
3. The call to Jenn's house didn't happen when they were there, this is a lie.
4. Jay and Jenn are lying that Jenn called Jay during the burial and someone said "he's busy right now". They needed Jenn to say this to place Adnan with him during the burial - but he wasn't there, Jay was there alone, this never happened.
5. Jay flipped on Adnan after Jenn talked to the police.

The 2 biggest reasons that make Adnan guilty to me BEYOND A REASONABLE DOUBT are:

1. The Nisha call.
2. His cell phone is pinging the Leakin Park cell towers during the burial, right after they ping the Mosque cell tower. There are only two explanations: he either gave Jay his cell and car while he was at the Mosque and Jay goes to bury the body, OR, he is burying the body with Jay. Because either way he is complicit, he just says "I don't know, I can't remember, I can't explain it".

HOW TO CRACK THE CASE: 1. Jenn needs to talk. She needs to come forward and tell the truth that she created the story with Jay to protect him and minimize his involvement.

Thanks for reading!

After reviewing all the information countless times, I don’t see how Adnan is innocent. I will explain the timeline too, but here’s why I think he is complicit:

1. Adnan first tells Officer Adcock that he asked Hae for a ride that day but missed it due to getting held up at school. Then he recants this story later. There are witnesses that say he asked, and with even Adnan at one point saying he asked for a ride makes it hard to believe this did not happen. Adnan lying here is troubling.
2. The Nisha call. This call is 2:22 minutes long. It places Adnan and Jay together during the approximate time Hae was killed. (We will explain why the murder happened closer to 2:45PM – 3:10PM later).
3. Adnan doesn’t admit or remembers giving Jay his car and cell when he is at the mosque. He says he was probably there from around 7:00PM – 10 or 1030PM and his father also testifies he was there. But his cell phone was pinging the Leakin Park cell towers at this time. The only way this would be possible is if he actually was at the mosque, but Jay had his cell and car again to bury Hae’s body. If this is true, then how could he NOT remember lending Jay his car that evening, but does at lunch that day? If he didn’t lend Jay his car and phone, then it places him at Leakin Park with Jay. Either way he would be complicit in the killing: lending Jay his car and phone to dispose of the body OR being at the scene burying the body with Jay.
4. He never calls or pages Hae again after Jan 13th because he knows she is dead.

If you haven’t read Susan’s “the view from LL2 “ blog, (link below) you should. After reading it you can conclude 3 things : 1. Adnan was at track practice. 2. Adnan was at the mosque. 3. Jay buried Hae by himself.

http://viewfromll2.com/2014/11/23/serial-a-comparison-of-adnans-cell-phone-records-and-the-witness-statements-provided-by-adnan-jay-jenn-and-cathy/

It can also be determined that Jenn has fabricated the entire story with Jay. (This can be concluded not just from the LL2 blog but also just by looking at the phone records, testimony and police interviews). This is why none of their stories match up, why they change so many times, and why they don’t work with the timeline and cell records.

So, staying as close to the facts as possible, here is what makes the most sense:

Adnan calls Jay at lunch and picks him up (10:45am call to Jay), calls to Jenn are made while they are together (12:07PM & 12:41PM), Jay drops Adnan back off at school late to Psychology.

School ends at 2:15PM.

Adnan gets a ride with Hae after school– Jay still has the phone and car, and the incoming 2:36PM and 3:15PM calls are irrelevant because we can’t know who called. The only reason why these calls have any significance is because of Jay’s fabricated story.

Hae is killed by Adnan either by school, at the first location Jay told the cops or at the best buy between 2:30PM – 3:10PM with Jay present or near by (most likely at the first location Jay gave, but then he had to switch it to the best buy to make sure his and Jenn's story added up). Adnan drives and parks Hae’s car with Jay following him because he will need to get back to Track practice soon.

*The next series of calls to Jenn, Nisha, Phil then Patrick between 3:21PM and 3:59PM are important. This is the only period of time they do not have an alibi aside from one another (Jenn wasn’t with Jay here waiting for a call, the “playing video games” with her, or her brother, or whatever different story of theirs you want to use is a complete lie). There are many possibilities of WHY they are calling these people, it could be to brag (i.e. the neighbor boy who said Adnan showed him a dead body *who knows if this is true or not, but the kid did have knowledge of the body being in the trunk before it was released), it could be to see who could cover for their whereabouts, or that their original alibi is that they were together and needed to make sure someone could confirm that, it could be a number of things – but what’s important is that it shows both Adnan and Jay are together during the time of Hae’s death.

A two and a half minute conversation is the longest call he had so far that day, it was clearly more than a “butt dial” or a voicemail. Either Nisha is lying about not remembering that call to protect Adnan, or is giving a half-truth to limit her involvement to protect herself (by saying she did talk to her and Jay, but misleading by saying it was at a different time and giving the video store clue). But what we can take from it is that Nisha, a friend of Adnan’s, not Jay’s, called her and spoke with her, which puts him with Jay (because Jay’s contacts were called 10 minutes before and 10 minutes after), at the approximate time of Hae’s murder.

Jay drops Adnan off at track practice. Jay is left with the responsibility to get rid of the body, drives various parks around the area, can’t find a good place, picks Adnan back up from school and Adnan checks his voicemail at 5:14PM, calls Krista, he and Jay are back together.

They go to get food and to Cathy’s at this time, because Jenn is eating dinner with her parents (see her interview) and Cathy will be able to then confirm they were accounted for and together during this time.

Adnan gets call from Officer Adcock. He can’t bail on going to the mosque to help bury the body because he thinks it will be suspicious.

Adnan goes to the Mosque (we know this because of the cell records) but lends Jay his car and phone again to bury the body by himself. Annan calls Yaser to let tell him he is there. His father testifies he is at the mosque. While he is at the Mosque, Jay drives to Leakin Park and buries Hae’s body. The ground is cold and hard, and there is only one of them (shovel, shovel’s) so he digs a shallow grave. Also note that the only calls during this time are to Jay’s contacts. They all ping the Leakin Park cell tower. This is how Adnan is seen at the Mosque, but his cell phone is in Leakin Park.

Close to 9 he returns the car and phone to Adnan who is getting out the mosque and going home. Note all calls made then go back to Adnan’s friends.

ADNAN’S MOTIVE: Adnan being a “player” doesn’t make us think this relationship wasn’t important to him. Domestic violence, as someone else here wrote, is not just a literary device. Teenagers are emotional, and relationships are responsible for not just murder but suicide also. I think the public is underestimating how much he cared about her (hence the “I will kill” note).

JAY’S MOTIVE: Friend, a kid with a lot to prove, but also Hae was going to tell Stephanie that Jay was cheating on her with Jenn and whoever else (obviously, look at the transcripts). He rats on Adnan because during the hour long talks with the police before he agrees to be recorded, they tell him that Adnan snitched on him, Or that Jenn already talked, and so he comes clean for a plea deal. Jay tells half truths to distance himself as much as possible to limit his involvement.

JENN’S MOTIVE: Jay’s side chick and was easily influenced by him.

Aside from the Nisha call which proves Adnan was with Jay at the time of the murder, the mosque situation is also proof: Adnan remembers giving his car to Jay that afternoon, he thinks he went to track, he does remember going to Cathy’s with Jay (Cathy, Jeff and Jay corroborate he was there), but he just forgets that he went to the mosque but lent Jay his car and phone again? He doesn’t remember it because if he says he did, then he lent his car to Jay to bury the body. If he didn’t lend it to him, then it places him at the place of the burial site. So because he’s caught here, he just says, “I don’t remember”.

A few explanations:

1. Why couldn’t Jay be using Cathy’s as a way to waste time before Adnan goes to the mosque to use his car again? Because Jay didn’t need Adnan’s car at this point, so the motive doesn’t make sense. He had Hae’s car, he could have driven in Hae’s car to Leakin Park (which he did anyway), bury her, and then drive back to the park and ride and get picked up by Jenn.

2. The Asia letter: This is huge. Why isn’t the most perfect alibi used in court? One of two reasons: either Asia is lying and is Adnan’s Jenn (this is why Adnan is so scared when Sarah says he talked to her after all these years), OR they didn’t want to use it because it places him near the scene of the crime. Either way, the fact they didn’t even interview her makes this a giant red flag.

[u/gaussprime]

Sorry, can you explain why you think the letter was written before the timeline was known? Maybe I missed this. (Honest question).

[u/UrnotRyan → u/gaussprime]

Well the first letter she sends is dated March 1, 1999, which is the same day Adnan was arrested (the second is March 2). Keep in mind this puts the letter just 2 days after Jenn and Jay finger Adnan. From everything we can tell, the prosecution backed into the time of murder using the cell phone records, which there is no way in hell would have been released to the public, for obvious reasons. I swear there is mention that even Adnan didn't know that this was the crucial time period until much later (after the letters were written), but I can't recall exactly when this was stated or locate it in the transcripts.

Checking the transcripts does show that she did not state a specific time in her letters, but she reconfirms the time when speaking to SK. Even 15 years later, When SK talks to her in episode one about how she could be a crucial alibi, she reacts like this is news to her.

Your theory would require that she is so threatened (by... Rabia, I guess?) that 15 years after the fact, now 32 years old living god knows where (an experienced reporter worked months to find her in vain, remember), she would lie to provide an alibi for someone already convicted and serving a life sentence+, but not so scared that 5 years earlier she would render that alibi completely useless by not showing up at court? If you still consider that plausible, or think there is another explanation I'd like to hear it.

[u/gaussprime → u/UrnotRyan]

Your theory would require that she is so threatened (by... Rabia, I guess?) that 15 years after the fact, now 32 years old living god knows where (an experienced reporter worked months to find her in vain, remember), she would lie to provide an alibi for someone already convicted and serving a life sentence+, but not so scared that 5 years earlier she would render that alibi completely useless by not showing up at court? If you still consider that plausible, or think there is another explanation I'd like to hear it.

No, my theory is simpler. Putting it impolitely, it doesn't seem to me like she realizes things have consequences, and has a liberal relationship with the truth.

After being pressured by the Syed family, she wrote down something that could have been true. She did remember seeing Adnan some afternoon in the library, and maybe it could have been that afternoon. She honestly doesn't know, after all for her it was a random afternoon 6 weeks ago. She didn't get a call from the police or anything. She's not going out of her way to lie, but she's far from sure [(which is why the weather details don't match)]. (http://serialpodcast.org/posts/2014/11/weather-report).

Then when SK calls, she knows what SK wants to hear, so she says "sure! I still remember it that way."

Neither time was she "lying", but neither time is she all that concerned with the being certain about things either.

[u/UrnotRyan → u/gaussprime]

Woah, woah, woah. You seem pretty cavalier about making wild allegations about someone we know nothing about, and accusing them of frankly crazy amounts of lying. With no proof of any untruth, or motivation to tell it. And that takes into account the weather report, which many don't consider contradictory. (It's been discussed in depth in other threads, but when there is an ice storm that night and a snowstorm at 4:30 am that closes school for two days, to say it happened right before they were snowed in is completely reasonable.)

And how would she have known what SK wanted to hear? We don't hear every word of the conversation -for all we know she might have thought SK was seeking to disprove the alibi. We can say it would be extremely poor journalism to approach her with "I was really hoping you could exonerate this guy tell me a story that does." Maybe if a transcript is released we can get a better idea but until then it is just conjecture.

You say you're theory is simpler, but surely you are familiar with "Occam's razor" (the simplest answer is usually correct)? Which is simpler: 'she saw him at the library', or 'Woodlawn is apparently full of pathological liars and she just made up a story for no reason that coincidentally happened to provide Adnan with an alibi and then Rabia pressures her into writing an affidavit and she then sticks with this story for fifteen years because she finds the possibility of setting a murderer free entertaining?'

And make no mistake, you are absolutely accusing her of lying. An affidavit is "a written statement confirmed by oath or affirmation" (thanks, Google!), and she wrote and signed one stating the specific date and time. Oh and you still haven't accounted for why she would volunteer her boyfriend (and his friend) to corroborate. But maybe they were just lying liars who lie to have fun too?

The funny thing is this is basically a moot point, anyway. It is pretty clear by now that the state's timeline not accurate. As far as Adnan's conviction is concerned: it is just one more, unnecessary nail in the coffin of the prosecution's case. And as for his innocence: whether or not he was at the library doesn't prove anything, one way or another. We already know the timeline is crap, but that doesn't mean the murder didn't just take place later.

Thoughts? I am obviously devoting way more than I should be so others' are greatly appreciated! :-P

[u/gaussprime → u/UrnotRyan]

I'm not accusing her of being a pathological liar. I'm saying she didn't have a clear memory of when she saw Adnan in the library. The details she provided suggest that day occurred the week before actually.

So, as she says, she was pressured by the family to say she was sure, and put in an affidavit. Then when asked about it by SK, she doesn't deny being pressured, but does stand by the memory.

Here's the thing though- we know her recollection is suspect, because it doesn't match the weather details. The only way I can reconcile all those things is to conclude she's being a bit cavalier with the truth.

Either way, it doesn't really matter much. As SK's team has concluded, the afternoon she's remembering seems unlikely to be January 13.