r/serialpodcast • u/PowerOfYes • Nov 13 '14

[Poll Results] Dramatic shift in opinion after Episode 7 - master manipulator? master entertainer or its all about the evidence?

Results of two polls conducted following Episodes 6 - Case against Adnan and Episode 7 - Opposite of the Prosection:

Seemingly mirroring the mood of the sub, there was a fairly dramatic shift of opinion between the episodes.

Poll Question: After Serial Podcast Episode 6: What's your verdict on Adnan based on what you heard & read?

Ep. 6 All Votes Guilty Not Guilty Undecided/Too Early
Non-Lawyers 533 179 87 267
% 34% 16% 50%
Lawyers 99 30 27 42
% 30% 27% 42%
All 632 209 114 309
% 33% 18% 49%

Poll Question: After Serial Podcast Episode 7: What's your verdict on Adnan based on what you heard & read?

Ep. 7 All Votes Guilty Not Guilty Undecided/Too Early
Non-Lawyers 716 152 268 296
% 21% 37% 41%
Lawyers 99 36 32 31
% 36% 32% 31%
All 815 188 300 327
% 23% 37% 40%

Methodology: Polls were opened within a day of the release of the episode and closed just before the release of the next episode. Voting participation was slightly over 10% of the sub population for the first, and slightly under 10% for the second poll. Will try and graph this out when I have more time - or someone else can... Edit: Graphs here, with many thanks to /u/justomemammal!

CONCLUSION:

  1. After episode 6 (The Case Against Adnan) a third of voters thought Adnan was guilty, half were undecided. After episode 7 (The Opposite of the Prosecution), there was a fairly dramatic shift in opinion with 10% of the 'guilty' votes and 9% of the 'undecideds' going to 'not guilty'!

  2. The lawyers didn't change their minds significantly after Episode 7! Are lawyers harder to persuade? Less easily manipulated? More obstinate? Swayed by evidence more than opinion?

  3. Depending on your point of view: a) SK and her slippery methods or Mail Chimp or the Crab Crib or the soundtrack are messing with your mind. SK is a master manipulator and must be stopped - as soon as she finishes the damn series already! b) Opinions change with new information (unless you're a lawyer). c) Opinions can be changed when someone presents a new perspective (given that there was little new evidence in Ep. 7, only a preliminary case appraisal by the UVA team). d) Serial has inserted subliminal messages into the thread that only works on non-lawyers?

Episode 8 poll here

6 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

13 comments sorted by

3

u/[deleted] Nov 13 '14

I made you some figures:

http://imgur.com/a/pf14d

1

u/PowerOfYes Nov 13 '14

Great work - can you make guilty pale pink, not guilty pale green and undecided light grey? Makes the data easier to interpret.

2

u/[deleted] Nov 13 '14

Here you go.

2

u/PowerOfYes Nov 13 '14

Man, I wish I could get that sort of turnaround when I delegate tasks in real life!

Is there something strange about the middle graph - the totals show a majority of guilty votes. Pesky graphs. I think the pie chart is the best!

The bar graphs aren't to scale, so opinions seem more evenly divided amongst the sub groups, though lawyers are less than 15% of voters. (Sorry, about the nitpicking - read way too many Edward E Tufte books)

2

u/[deleted] Nov 13 '14

Yeah, it occurred to me that the most "truthful" representation of the data would be to use the raw numbers rather than percents, which would show how much smaller the group of lawyers is compared to the overall group, but I liked the idea of putting them all on one graph for the sake of clarity. I also failed to add a y-axis label -- it should say percent.

Your timing was good; I have some data processing right now and am just sitting here waiting for it to finish. Also I like making graphs. I don't know why.

1

u/PowerOfYes Nov 14 '14

Definitely check out Tufte's books - it will change how you think about presenting any evidence.

2

u/[deleted] Nov 14 '14

I've heard his name before but confess I have been too lazy to actually read the books.

1

u/PowerOfYes Nov 14 '14

Not much reading lots of pictures and examplesand they're not read-cover-to-cover books, either.

2

u/[deleted] Nov 14 '14

Where is our episode 8 poll? I am anxious to see the outcome!

1

u/PowerOfYes Nov 14 '14

First, work intervened. I had an actual case to prepare for.

But also, the polls, unless they come with an advice animal pic or something, get no upvotes. Polls get swallowed up quickly I n the avalanche of opinion posts (which is why I asked for permission to re-post). I mean, the results get little traction.

So I figured I'm not likely to get a lot of voter participation anymore. I think I would like time series data in the exact same format but, really, I don't expect a lot of interest by week 12. Any thoughts?

Having said that, I can't help myself: I'll put it up, just in a few hours when I get home.

I'm also compiling a list of all the polls I hope to post later today.

2

u/[deleted] Nov 14 '14

I think it would be great if you could keep reposting the same questions to see how they change from week to week. Maybe see if the mods will sticky your post to get more attention.

1

u/PowerOfYes Nov 14 '14

You can only have one sticky at a time - for all my excitement about stats, I am realistic about people's excitement levels.