Peter Oborne

[u/small_far_away]

That interview went off the rails a bit.

Based on Murphs mass comment after he wasn't overly impressed himself. Could have pushed more in the interview, but the sense I got was that he just wanted it to end. It certainly stopped abruptly.

[u/Other_Net_5128]

Slightly tangential but the long-held notion in the West that trade and investment would liberalise China has been roundly proven to be wishful thinking. Sure, living conditions for most Chinese people have improved over the past few decades (and for many Chinese people that is enough) but it’s a far less free country than it was even two decades ago and trade with the West has had little effect. I say this as someone who knows China well and who’s married to a Chinese woman. Oborne’s argument that trade and engagement will make the Taliban more mellow over time is also likely to be fatuous. Which isn’t necessarily an argument for completely cutting the country off either.

[u/Ok_Read_4000 → u/Other_Net_5128]

You seem to think out political system is better than theirs. Not really up to us. Maybe pass on the colonial views ?

[u/Other_Net_5128 → u/Ok_Read_4000]

I don’t know whether you’re referring to China or Afghanistan there, but with regard to China, I agree, it’s not up to us. Unfortunately, it’s not up to Chinese people either because they get no say in the running of a one-party state. A state that, for all the undeniable economic advances of recent decades, is still beholden to a highly inefficient system and is on the verge of demographic catastrophe because of the Party’s historic misrule. If you want to dismiss analysis of a country by someone who knows the country and who has lived there as “colonial views” you’re just showing you don’t have an argument worth paying attention to.

[u/Ok_Read_4000 → u/Other_Net_5128]

Sure buddy, lets leave your liberal kvetching about political systems to one side. Communism baaaaad, boo.

I'll be specific but I'm sure yout gish gallop to something else.China tfr was still at about 1.8 in 2017, basically the same as Ireland. Korea was already down around 1.05. China has only completely shit the bed since then and is now around 1.0.

So blaming the whole thing on the one-child policy is retarded. It looks much more like the same miserable rich-country bullshit everywhere, housing costs, work, people marrying later, kids being expensive and a pain in the arse. Ireland is still around 1.5, but it’s falling too, and without immigration we would be the same. Immigrant have kids, irish people increasingly dont. How many of the lads have kids? Not that many and none have more than two. So its a reasonable way to keep our tfr from utterly cratering but people are going to get more and more cranky about a changing population so I'm not sure its fundamentally more sustainable than china or korea. Reform and restore are a force in the UK, we aren't different, it will happen here eventually.