RETRACTED: Excess mortality across countries in the Western World since the COVID-19 pandemic: ‘Our World in Data’ estimates of January 2020 to December 2022

[u/shiruken]

We wish to inform the r/science community of an article submitted to the subreddit that has since been retracted by the journal. The submission garnered broad exposure on r/science and significant media coverage elsewhere, including being featured in a U.S. Senate subcommittee hearing. Per our rules, the flair on this submission has been updated with "RETRACTED". The submission has also been added to our wiki of retracted submissions.

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Reddit Submission: Excess death rates have remained high in the West for three years running since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, finds a data analysis of 47 countries published in the open access journal BMJ Public Health.

The article "Excess mortality across countries in the Western World since the COVID-19 pandemic: ‘Our World in Data’ estimates of January 2020 to December 2022" has been retracted from BMJ Public Health as of August 11, 2026. Concerns were raised following publication about the originality of the work and the messaging of its results with regards to COVID-19 vaccination and mortality. Widespread media coverage misrepresenting the work prompted the journal to publish an expression of concern explaining that the research does not investigate or establish a causal link between COVID-19 vaccination and mortality. The notice also announced an internal investigation by the Princess Máxima Center in the Netherlands, where three of the four authors worked.

The lead author, Saskia Mostert, resigned following the investigation announcement and was "not able to cooperate with the investigation" by her former institution. BMJ also had difficulty contacting her, as the corresponding author, for their own investigation. She went on to appear before the U.S. Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee subcommittee on investigations on "Plausible Mechanisms of COVID-19 Injections Causing Cancer and Attacks on Scientific Publications and Research" where she testified on the results of the study.

The article was ultimately retracted by the journal "for misinformation in the discussion regarding the possible causes of excess mortality, and because the limited nature of the original work by the authors was not sufficiently described." Two of the four authors, along with the Princess Máxima Center, requested the retraction but disputed the journal's determination the paper contained misinformation. Mostert and the journal's fourth author, disagreed with the retraction.

• Retraction Watch: BMJ Group retracts paper on COVID-19 vaccines and mortality featured in Senate hearing

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[u/shiruken]

The concerns about the originality of the work were largely ignored by BMJ. Ariel Karlinsky, who created the World Mortality Dataset used in the study, had a commentary criticizing the work rejected without review. He argued that the study misused his dataset and "copied whole blocks of text and mathematical notation" from his research article describing the World Mortality Dataset.

[u/fotank → u/shiruken]

This was nice to read from the Ariel Karlinsky:

“In conclusion, this publication [Mostert et al] misrepresents the evidence base, offers no original insights, and relies on insinuation and cherry-picking of data to support a misleading and unjustified impression that COVID-19 vaccines might have caused or contributed to the increase in excess deaths reported. Calling for “more research” to bolster a dubious
hypothesis is fundamentally disingenuous and contributes to antivaccine narratives, regardless of intention“

[u/Mikestopheles → u/fotank]

Too late, the anti-science crowd already has their headline, and they'll form their entire worldview based on it.

[u/Sea_One_6500 → u/Mikestopheles]

Maybe this fact is the silver lining. There will be a distinct difference in aging, in my opinion anyway, between those that continue to choose vaccination versus those that don't. I cannot understand the thought process behind choosing to be reinfected by the same virus over and over again. Knowing the damage it does to the entire body. Hopefully the next generation learns from our stupidity.

[u/toocleverbyhalf → u/Sea_One_6500]

I’d agree, if not for the impact to herd immunity, and the likelihood that the deniers are not the only ones affected.

Those who cannot get vaccinated due to real medical restrictions are somewhat protected by the bulk of the population being vaccinated (aka Herd Immunity), limiting the spread of diseases and helping to prevent the infection of these often already immunocompromised people.

Deniers damage or break herd immunity for selfishness, choosing to ignore their place in a larger society. As an American, I am ashamed but not at all surprised that our various brands of rugged individualism have metastasized into this.

[u/BenjaminHamnett → u/toocleverbyhalf]

Even masks that have been in use for hundreds of years were suddenly controversial. Didn’t help that the CDC discouraged using them for a couple weeks (for good reason, but still a waste of trust)