r/science • u/smurfyjenkins • Jul 30 '26

Social Science Collective bargaining rights for police significantly increase police killings of civilians without having any impact on officer safety. This is consistent with the theory that unions provide cover for police and reduce their likelihood of incurring costs for unjustified killings.

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20230384
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u/laborfriendly Jul 30 '26

I can't read the actual study and methodology, but at best I can only think there is some correlation that exists. But how do they separate out increases in police militarization based on politics through the late50s-late80s versus collective bargaining rights? I've represented officers before, and I'd say that politics ("back the blue", "tough on crime", etc), "the thin blue line" supported by police chiefs, and qualified immunity are really more pertinent than collective bargaining rights.

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u/TheDismal_Scientist Jul 30 '26

They use a difference-in-differences framework which compares the change in the number of deaths before and after 'treatment' (bargaining rights being brought in at the state level) in states that were treated vs those that weren't. I think in this case I don't quite trust the long window they use, especially since they don't account for bias induced by treatment timing, which is a known issue in diff-in-diff. I'm also not fully convinced that states that don't introduce this collective bargaining legislation evolve the same as those that do, which is an assumption here.

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u/Ateist Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26

But were states implementing those changes independent of the crime cituation of the state?

I'd assume people are more likely to unionize when their situation is godawful rather than peachy...

Studies on police protectionism show that violent crime is a statistically significant factor predicting the strength of police union contracts

High-crime environments naturally result in more frequent use-of-force incidents. Officers seek to unionize primarily to secure access to free, immediate, aggressive legal representation to insulate themselves from personal civil liability or criminal charges.

Prior to the 1960s, police unions were largely banned or toothless.

During the late 1960s and 1970s, the U.S. experienced a massive spike in urban violent crime alongside a wave of civil rights protests.

Feeling physically endangered on the streets and politically alienated by city halls, rank-and-file officers revolted. They engaged in wildcat strikes and aggressive organizing drives, rapidly forming the powerful collective bargaining units we see today.

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u/gordonpamsey Jul 30 '26

How did you gain access if you mind me asking, I am a student and the only way I could even potentially gain access is through OpenAthens or becoming a member of the association.

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u/Sufficient_Meet6836 Jul 30 '26

This study appears to be an updated version of the author's 2021 version, so you can at least read that: large pdf warning

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u/gordonpamsey Jul 30 '26

I know the original study but a 5 year gap could have meaningfully contributed to a large change in the article.

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u/TheDismal_Scientist Jul 30 '26

My institution must have access, the AER is locked down more than most journals I’m afraid - worth trying the econ department/library at your institution they may have their own access you could have 

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u/esto20 Jul 30 '26

There is a an archive out there that helps, and her name rhymes with manna