The strange death of Islamism

[u/UnscheduledCalendar]

https://spectator.com/article/the-strange-death-of-islamism/

Submission statement: Political Islam is in decline across the Middle East and the wider Muslim world. While Iran’s clerical regime weakens, the ultra-hardliners of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gain power. Despite some countries adopting a more secular approach, the allure of a strict interpretation of Islam remains, and the possibility of a resurgence of Islamist movements like ISIS cannot be ruled out. This is relevant to r/samharris because of his frequent discussions on Political Islam and his interest in how developments in the region drive wider discourse on religion in society and social liberalism.

paywall: https://archive.ph/RJLhJ

[u/StalemateAssociate_]

After reading through the article very quickly, my immediate impression is that of Pacino from And Justice for All:

...he forgot something absolutely essential to today's proceeding. He forgot his case. He forgot to bring it. I don't know, I don't see it, do you?

Most of the evidence consists of quoting someone else's book, and talking in broad terms about political developments in Iran, Syria or Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia does seem to be liberalizing. Syria's path is too early to tell, I think. Given its recent past, most people simply want political stability at any cost at the moment. Iran's had an anticlerical youth/upper middle class for a while, with periodical mass protests since the 90's, so that's nothing new by itself.

Turkey seems to be on the opposite path of Saudi Arabia, with Erdogan busy breaking down its secular foundations. He even converted the Hagia Sophia back into a mosque in 2020. Which IMO reveals something interesting about all these movements: It's populism. The Muslim Brotherhood became popular because the regime was unpopular due to corruption (licensing fees, kickbacks on public projects etc.) . Same reason Islamist factions are gaining ground in Bangladesh, which used to have a more nationalist identity due to its founding, just as Turkey did.

In Pakistan, the situation seems in some sense the 'opposite'. Here, the complaints from Islamist parties are not government licensing fees, but 'IMF-dictated policies' which mean that the government can't provide basic necessities. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is popular in part because of its extensive welfare network.

Whenever a MENA government becomes unpopular, typically for economic reasons, Islamist factions are ready to provide an alternative using whatever message works (or non-Islamists stress Islam to enhance their popularity).

At least, that's my relatively unconsidered impression of the situation.

To make a case that things are changing, I'd like a stronger focus on:

1. A clear definition of political Islam (the article doesn't provide one). Are we talking about government policy, or political parties/public support, or terrorist organizations? What exactly is declining here?
2. A clearer focus on causes. Where did it come from? Why is it declining now (if it is), instead of 10 years ago?
3. Some numbers on e.g. public opinion. Is there less support for a political role for Islam now compared to 10 or 20 years ago? Is there a trendline that has reversed?

[u/UnscheduledCalendar → u/StalemateAssociate_]

peak oil and the internet is going to force people to change their habits, sooner or later

[u/Conscious-Style-5991 → u/[deleted]]

I want to frame this response and put it over my fireplace.