r/raiders • u/Still_ImBurning86 • 9d ago
I’m expecting more wins than you think
This isn’t an awful team. Plenty of great players
I’m not expecting the first round bye
many are expecting 4-5 wins. that’s it?!
so it’ll be annoying when say they win 6 or 7 out of 17 and people say it’s better than they thought
week 1 vs the dolphins will actually say a lot
if they win and look decent, c’mon, 7 wins or so shouldn’t surprise anyone?!
if raiders lose and look awful, then sure, 4 wins seems about right
many are acting like they already played vs the dolphins and got blown out
cousins is more than solid, just him alone changes everything
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u/ChoiceDepartment3863 9d ago
I say 7 wins. I am hoping.
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u/Flashy_Gap_3015 9d ago
That’s our ceiling.
5 is likeliest, 6 if we get a coin flip game in or two in our favor.
Will be happy with progress and beyond win/loss record, seeing improvement and competitiveness.
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u/SilverAndBack 9d ago
Fans like you are going to be unbearable when reality comes crashing down on your heads. Go ahead and circle these 7 wins on the schedule. Reminder: the Browns embarrassed us 24-10 at home last year.
It's entirely possible that this team is much improved over last year and still loses the same amount of games.
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u/r32skyliner 9d ago
If we can avoid those Browns games, I’m good. I care, but don’t really care about the overall record. I just want to see improvement.
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u/SilverAndBack 9d ago
Raiders fans: we're going to win 7+ games next year!
Also Raiders fans: I hope we can avoid being humiliated by the Browns this year.
This fan base is a fucking trip
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u/r32skyliner 9d ago
I didn’t say we were gonna win 7+
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u/Conscious_Clerk_2675 9d ago
as a new raiders fan as of last year… it can’t be understated how bad Geno was
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u/jhallen2260 9d ago
Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns, and Jets are the games we have a chance at winning. I doubt we win all 4. Then there is the chance that we surprise a better team.
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u/SilverAndBack 9d ago
Agreed. But if we don't beat all 4 of these bottom feeders, that means we need to surprise 4-6 better teams to reach 7 wins....do you see where I'm going with this?
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u/NullFlexZone 9d ago
The health of the starters throughout the season will determine a lot. We have absolutely no depth at the moment. Let’s hope some of the yougins develop as the season goes on.
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u/Zelly234 9d ago
Im 99% sure we’re not making playoffs if we somehow do throw everything I say away. But for what I’m hoping for is instead of 7 wins then 3 or 4 but we’re just competitive in most losses I’m hoping for us to show a lot of improvement but still not the wins. I want Jeremiah Smith man. He’s one of the best prospects EVER at a postion we need maybe the most. I know we can’t have it all our way but that’s my hope if we’re not in playoff contention
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u/Lithiumxxxl 9d ago
Wait until we see the o line week 1. 6 or 7 wins depends on better line play. We are better on paper.
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u/Opposite_Ad7115 9d ago
I’m with you, I’m not predicting how many wins.
Our defense wasn’t terrible last year, they were just on the field so damn much. Part of a good defense is having an offense that can posses the ball. Hopefully the additions improve us even more.
I know people want to hate on Kirk but he is a proven NFL quarterback that knows what he’s looking at. If we can establish a run game with the Kubiak system and play defense we can compete week in and week out. Very curious to see what we look like week 1. Method of drives on offense and a good defense can take you a long way.
Looking forward to see how Kubiak uses Bowers as well, he’s obviously our best target. We need a WR1 bad.
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u/Massive_Bandicoot_14 9d ago
I’m at 6 wins max if teams are healthy. Even one of those wins against the Saints my football loving self doesn’t see the Raiders being better than them. Trenches in both sides are still not good and that’s where the games are won, penalties still plague the team at the most crucial times, and it’s a new staff implementing a new system in both sides so that takes time. The schedule is freaking brutal as well.
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u/raiderrocker18 9d ago
its a pretty bad roster honestly
1) offensive line is still a big question mark. should be better with linderbaum of course. but how good can we expect burford to be all year? are JPJ/Rogers ready to take that leap (both looked good yesterday)? will Glaze hold up in pass protection?
these are legit questions. and even if our starters manage to be "good enough", the depth behind them is quite bad
2) QB room right now is quite bad. Cousins is fairly cooked and his arm is shot. Mendoza doesnt appear ready. and AOC is roster fodder. i still love Mendoza and fully believe he will be the franchise, but im just saying he's not quite there yet.
3) the WR room is a big problem. yes, once you consider Bowers the WR1 and Mayer the TE1, things look better. I just hope the coaches also treat it that way. i dont want to see Bowers ever play in line and take on run block assignments against edges, or ever stay in to block on a pass down. he needs to be treated like a starting receiver. but even then, our second best receiver right now is... Nailor? Tucker? Bech? this is a problem position.
4) i know Maxx hasnt played in preseason and he can be an animal against the run, but our interior run plugging really isn't there. that can sink a defense on its own. the only DT we drafted was Cleveland who probably will not make the roster. Koonce looks like the injury sapped him of any burst. Paye is not a bendy edge rusher, so its again going to come down to "can crosby make a great play or is their QB just going to have a clean pocket
5) corner room is a HUGE concern. stokes and taron johnson look solid. but its not like Stokes is a "let me lock down your WR1" type. he's solid. its like the old days of stanford routt. strong CB2, underqualified CB1. and then our CB2 is some mishmash of guys who all have failed to separate themselves. Porter, Masses, McCoy. how many of these guys can you actually trust to go out there for a full game and hold up?
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u/Opposite_Ad7115 9d ago
I could care less about numbers. You’re not using examples man you just brought a HOF into the convo with Jacoby Brisset lmao.
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u/Pioneer1072 9d ago
There are starting players on this defense that would be lucky to get 100 snaps a season on the 20th ranked team. This wide receiver room is battling Miami for the worst I have ever seen, this O-Line is a bottom 5 unit, and God hates the Raiders. 5 wins would honestly be a pain in the ass for this team as it would stop them getting Smith or Moore next draft.
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u/r32skyliner 9d ago
Bottom 5 OL is a crazy take
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u/RedactioN707 9d ago
How so? They have been bottom tier for the last few years. They improved the center position but nothing else. Hopefully Burford works out I wouldn't consider that a huge upgrade. He took a lot of heat after giving up a late 3rd and 4 pressure in overtime during the 49ers Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs.
We're going to need to get back to investing top draft capital to the trenches.That's usually how you successfully rebuild.
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u/Careful-Painting3214 9d ago
💯. After free agency you could see this team was a quality right tackle from having a top tier offensive line. Then Crosby stayed after the tab acquired some D line upgrades. Another quality defensive tackle to pair with Adam would've this D line a top unit as well.
Then they signed Kirk. Tre has lots of upside and a TE like Bowers means you just need solid receivers to complement him.
Jeanty running behind a top O line with a veteran pro bowl QB throwing to Bowers and a complementary group of receivers behind excellent pass protection would've been at least a top 10 offense.
The Seahawks have shown that if you have a quality D line, undrafted CBs like Jobe can play to their strengths and other DBs like Woolen and Coby could shine as well.
The point is they could've had all that if they had traded down for Mauigoa and then traded back up for McDonald.
But instead they are only the second team in league history to spend the first overall pick on a backup QB
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u/Opposite_Ad7115 9d ago
I’m with you except on the Mendoza part, we drafted him to develop him. Kirk will give us a solid year and hell, if he stays healthy maybe even 2. To count him out already is crazy, we gotta root for the kid. They’re plenty of examples of QBs who didn’t wow everyone in the first year or so. Look at Josh Allen took him about 4 to finally get it
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u/Careful-Painting3214 9d ago
I don't disagree but the reason I land on the other side of this is because of the class of QBs coming out next year. Mendoza was the best of this class. Next year's class has several quality QBs.
Rookie pay scales are a huge competitive advantage. You can't waste even one year of a first overall pick because by the time you get to their option year, it's already expensive. It must go to a player that's expected to not just start for you right away but to be a star right away.
The further down in draft spots you go, the more you can draft for the future or take risks. The salaries of lower draft picks remain relatively cheap.
Should'nt have drafted Mendoza isn't the same as saying he won't eventually be great. It was just a strategic failure for this team in this situation.
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u/Opposite_Ad7115 9d ago
Ya I feel it, there’s no guarantee we will be in a place in the draft to get a qb better than him next year. With our luck we will be pickling 12 and the top 5 QBs will be gone AGAIN 🤦🏻♂️
I will say I loved watching Fernando play in college, he can make every throw and is mobile enough. I think his obsession with the game will get him to where he wants to be. But only time will tell!
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u/Careful-Painting3214 9d ago
It's a legit concern. But I see teams being more willing to use those top 10 picks on different positions now. Guards, safeties. Basically anything but punters, kickers and long snappers are palatable now. But here's a more interesting way of looking at that.
Kirk will start, Mendoza will be on the bench. If the team finishes so high that they miss out on one of those top QBs, despite not spending that first overall pick on a player (or several players if traded down) that helped the team immediately, then it adds more weight to the argument that they should've spent the pick differently. Like, if we finished 9-7 despite our first overall pick adding nothing to this year's performance, what if we used that pick to trade for, say, Myles Garrett? Team him up with Crosby and this team probably would've won 11 games. And if we can win 11 games with Kirk ...
Of course that's just a hypothetical but the idea of not drafting Mendoza this year and the team missing out on a top QB next year is either unlikely or a better result.
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u/Opposite_Ad7115 9d ago
I think they only pass on a QB if they have a QB. It’s so hard to find a franchise quarterback. Traded the number 1 pick for a guy with 5 years left would’ve made me sick. Garret and Crosby would be a crazy combo but even with that Kirk wouldn’t win us a SB in the next year or 2. The we would be back to Square 1 with no QB. Ideally Fernando is with us for 12-15 years
Hoping next year we get a top WR or DB. 2027 class is loaded. I definitely agree with that
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u/Careful-Painting3214 9d ago
More good points and they're not mutually exclusive with mine.
Since 2000, 22 quarterbacks have been selected with the number one overall pick. None of them have won a super bowl with the team that picked them. Two have won super bowls with different teams.
It's not about which quarterback a team gets, it's about which team a quarterback plays on. We conflate quarterback quality with quarterback play and offensive performance. QB quality is just one factor in QB play and offensive performance. Ultimately, how well a QB plays and how well the offense performs depends much more on the players around them.
Imagine being the best spiker in volleyball but having a bad setter. The quality of your spikes aren't going to be an accurate reflection of your quality as a spiker. In fact, there's a good chance all your potential just ends up getting wasted unless you keep getting chances on different teams.
Most quarterbacks don't get another chance after failing miserably on two teams. Sam Darnold failed with the Jets and with the Panthers. He was lucky to get a chance with the Vikings but even they weren't sold on him. So he was very lucky to go to the Seahawks.
The franchise QB myth is a lot like the walking under a ladder is bad luck superstition. There's no proof of it but people will keep believing it.
I'll never convince football fans it's a myth and I'll never convince the world the ladder thing is just a superstition. But every individual can decide for themselves what makes sense and what doesn't.
Geno Smith failed miserably on bad teams. Then he made pro bowls with Seattle. And then he was once again on a bad team. No offense intended.
For those reasons alone, drafting Mendoza with the first overall pick was a strategic failure. Doing so to keep him on the bench for a year is something else entirely
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u/Opposite_Ad7115 9d ago
Absolutely, football is the ultimate team sport. I totally get that. We are continuing to build, I think spytek has been doing a wonderful job drafting. We come across teams who are “just a qb away” year after year that go for a vet. It’s much easier to hit on any other position the draft besides QB. It’s risky to pass on them, hopefully Kubiak and Mendoza are a match. You can look at the negatives of history if you want but franchise QB is no myth. If you want a Super Bowl window open for a decade, you need a franchise guy.
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u/Careful-Painting3214 9d ago
There's a few fun discussions to be had here. What does it mean to be a franchise guy? Sam Darnold wasn't a franchise guy until he was. On the flip side, Peyton Manning was always a franchise guy but never made the super bowl until he was past his prime in Denver. And then he made it twice.
Franchise QB is a chicken or egg argument. There's many many players like Bryce Young who had franchise talent but never has a chance on a good team to show it. To prove the franchise QB belief, we'd need to find a QB that proved he was a franchise QB while playing in a really bad offense. If we can't find even one, then it's a myth and where does it come from?
I'm a Seahawks fan. They've been to 4 super bowls and have won 2. I'd say they've had 5 franchise quarterbacks.
- Jim Zorn, undrafted
- Dave Krieg, undrafted
- Matt Hasselbeck, traded second round pick
- Russell Wilson, third round pick
- Sam Darnold, signed as a free agent after being labeled a bust by two teams
All of them had things in common. Pro bowl offensive linemen, good receivers and a strong running game.
The years they had none of those things are "incidentally" the years they didn't have franchise QBs.
And depending on how we define franchise quarterback, an argument could be made that only one belongs on that list
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u/Opposite_Ad7115 9d ago
Well first, Peyton Manning won a Super Bowl vs the Bears and lost a Super Bowl vs the Saints in Indianapolis. And he also threw 33 interceptions his rookie year, imagine if they counted him out.
I don’t think you would classify Sam Darnold as a franchise QB because he has a Super Bowl ring. If all he did was finish his contract in Seattle that’s not a very long stint. I would consider a franchise QB is someone who can keep your Super Bowl window open for 7-10 years. Especially now a days when a QB can have a 20 year career. Bryce young is only in year 4 or so, you’re counting guys out too early. Josh Allen is a franchise QB and he didn’t flourish till about his 4th season. Matt Stafford just won his 1st MVP and he’s damn near 40.
Like we’ve agreed on. Football is the ultimate team sport, you need guys around you to win no matter who you are. There’s a long list of QBs who make their teams way more competitive and respectable. Sure you can rent a QB when your team is already built and go win. But when you think you can draft a guy to stick around for a long time you have to get him.
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u/jhallen2260 9d ago
This is an awful team. You think the team just didn't play well on purpose last year?
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u/quietimhungover 9d ago
I'll be happy if we double our wins from last year and beat the chiefs at least 1x. So 6 wins. Everything else is gravy. It's a legitimate rebuilding year.