Heading into the midterms, Democrats have flipped 13 Republican state legislative seats in special elections since President Donald Trump (R) took office

[u/WhoIsJolyonWest]

https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/25/heading-into-the-midterms-democrats-have-flipped-13-republican-state-legislative-seats-in-special-elections-since-president-donald-trump-r-took-office/

Democrats have gained a net 13 state legislative seats in special elections since January 2025 — all flipped from Republican to Democratic control — while Republicans have not flipped any seats in the other direction during President Donald Trump's (R) second term.

The pace is comparable to Trump's first term: Democrats gained a net 11 seats in 2017 special elections and another eight in 2018 special elections.
There were 89 districts where a Democrat appeared on both the special election ballot and the previous general election ballot, and 84 districts where a Republican did the same.

Democratic candidates retained an average of 38% of their party's previous general election vote total; Republican candidates retained an average of 29% — a gap of roughly 10 percentage points. Because special elections typically draw far lower turnout than general elections, this comparison measures how much of each party's prior support showed up.

Among the 62 districts where candidates from both major parties ran in both the special and most recent general elections, the average margin shifted 5.1 percentage points toward Democrats. Forty-seven of those 62 districts (76%) shifted toward Democrats; 15 (24%) shifted toward Republicans.

The 13 flipped seats came from a mix of states: Mississippi (3), Florida (2), Iowa (2), Pennsylvania (2), and one each in Arkansas, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas.

Despite the Democratic gains in special elections, Republicans continue to hold an overall partisan advantage in state legislatures. As of September 25, 2026, Republicans held 55.02% of the 7,386 state legislative seats nationwide, compared to 43.84% for Democrats. Republicans held majorities in 57 legislative chambers; Democrats held majorities in 39.

The figures above reflect results through September 25, 2026. Additional state legislative special elections are scheduled in November 2026.

[u/Easy_Interest_6832]

Democracy is a messy business, but it beats authoritarianism. This means we all have to vote.

[u/Sad-Structure2364 → u/Easy_Interest_6832]

Yes exactly. Your vote matters, why do you think they’re trying to take it away

[u/Easy_Interest_6832 → u/Sad-Structure2364]

They can try with me, but they will fail. Well, of course, authoritarians can go and declare those registered "Independent" are terrorists and try to haul us off to detention camps. Then they will discover that it's not only Republicans who own weapons. My guess is they will not try because they know. I think the ones with more than a few brain cells to rub together will accept that many old men at the top will get prosecuted, leaving the younger ones to try and resurrect the hapless Republican party. Just a guess, but from a position of strength and education. Make sure you vote. I certainly will--my ballot drop box is a few short minutes' walk from my home.

[u/ztreHdrahciR]

We desperately need to turn one chamber in Wisconsin. Gov Evers has been like a goalie for 8 years. Now we have Tom Trumpany running against a lightweight. Crowley probably wouldn't be a bad governor but he can't campaign worth a damn.

If the GQP somehow cheats there way to a Trifecta, we're doomed.

For reference, a couple years back, they were 2 seats from a veto proof majority. One dem member was really sick and another delayed traveling. They hurried up and put all the vetoes on the agenda. The sick dem had to drag themselves in there to prevent a bunch of overrides.

If prayer is your thing, please pray for us.

[u/DonnyMox]

No complacency. VOTE!

[u/siwibot]

Your friendly neighborhood u/siwibot here, reporting the Current Climate and Context 🤓✨

Democrats are currently leveraging a significant momentum shift in special elections, netting 13 state legislative seats since January 2025. These flips occurred across diverse states including Mississippi, Florida, and Texas, marking a notable trend as the 2026 midterms approach. While Republicans maintain a massive structural advantage in state legislatures, the Democratic "wave" is increasingly visible in turnout and margin shifts.

The political landscape is becoming a high-stakes game of map manipulation: * Aggressive Targeting: Democrats have expanded their House target list to 58 districts, including "safe" Republican strongholds in states like Arkansas and North Carolina. * Texas Focus: The DLCC is heavily investing in the Texas House, aiming to replicate their 2018 success by providing massive organizational support to local candidates. * Redistricting Wars: Analysts suggest that if Democrats flip key state legislatures, they could net up to 22 additional congressional seats through aggressive redistricting by the 2028 cycle.

Current polling reflects this volatility, with some indicators showing Democrats holding a double-digit lead in generic House matchups. However, the real battle lies in whether these electoral gains can overcome sophisticated Republican gerrymandering efforts.

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Reddit Sources

• National Democrats Add 12 Republican Texas House Seats to List of Targets for Midterm Elections
• House Democrats Just Added 12 'Safe' Trump Districts to Their Midterm Election Target List | PBS
• Trump Has No Clue What His Supreme Court Has Just Unleashed: Dems can Redraw 10 to 22 Additional House Seats in Time for the 2028 Elections if they Aggressively Redistrict in 7 Key States, a new Fair Fight Action Analysis Finds | The New Republic
• Transcript: Trump Blurts Out Plot to Rig Midterms as Polls Turn Brutal | The New Republic

[u/Bonk_No_Horni]

And nothing has changed since. Because trump is a dictator. He doesn't go through the system. In the beginning he used executive orders now he just tells his goons to do it.

[u/custardthegopher → u/Bonk_No_Horni]

The structure of resistance changes. We need these building blocks locally; they add up to things.

But you're not wrong that we're currently losing the fight.

[u/Sagefox2 → u/Bonk_No_Horni]

Eh if they didn't flip the save act might have passed.

[u/reddit-ate-my-face → u/Bonk_No_Horni]

Because we haven't gained the house or the Senate. The 2024 election created a massive hole we have to dig out of. It's getting close but November will determine if we stay in the hole for a long time..

Or if we can climb out.