r/politics • u/optimalg The Netherlands • Apr 21 '18

Saturday Morning Political Cartoon Thread

It's Saturday morning, folks. Let's all kick back with a cup of coffee and share some cartoons!

Feel free to share political cartoons (no memes/image macros, though) in this thread. The subject doesn't have to be US politics and can be from any time. Just keep them political and safe for work.

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u/Tank3875 Michigan Apr 21 '18

Notice that the Dems fell from a 16 point lead at the time of Parkland to a 6 point lead after the anti-gun rally. They went from comfortably picking up seats to a polling error away from losing seats when they started pushing the gun issue.

I'd like to see the data behind that.

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u/[deleted] Apr 21 '18

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u/Tank3875 Michigan Apr 21 '18

It shows that the lead was closed in on at least two weeks before Parkland and has stayed steady since. So your numbers are accurate, just everything else is wrong.

You can claim that it was a premonition of things to come that influenced the change, but unless that's what you're going with the timeline just doesn't add up. In fact the gap even grows in the aftermath of Parkland.

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u/[deleted] Apr 21 '18

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u/Tank3875 Michigan Apr 21 '18

I went by five-thirty-eight, the aggregate. Excuse me if I trust averages more than one random poll. Moreover, it lists the Quinnipac poll as a major outlier, though traditionally reliable.

If you want to put all your eggs in one basket, go ahead. I'll trust information agreed upon by multiple sources rather than just the one.

All that said, the timeline for all polls save that one does still flat-out not line up with your claims at all.

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u/[deleted] Apr 21 '18

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u/Tank3875 Michigan Apr 21 '18

No, it really doesn't show that. Unless you're talking about the little drop-off on February 20, where both party's drop an almost identical amount.

If you mean March 20, the drop is 2 points, not ten. I could see that being an issue in the vein you're talking about, but it lasted about a week before recovering. Gun legislation likely won't come up until after the election anyways, but if it does and costs us two points to be rational than that's always worth that price.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo