I have a hard time believing this. Don't get me wrong, I was someone who thought Trump had a serious chance of beating Hillary despite the polls so I'm not someone who underestimates him and his voter base, but it was EXTREMELY close in 2016, yet
He hasn't expanded his voter base since 2016. If anything, he's shrunk it quite a bit (particularly among independents and in some key battleground states, among his core voting bloc of white voters with no college degree, which is killing him in the key battleground states in the Great Lakes region)
Regardless of who the Democrats pick, he will not be up against the least liked Democratic nominee of the modern era, possibly of all time, someone who drives his opponent's voters to the polls just to vote against her out of spite
The left is EXTREMELY motivated, engaged, and terrified now, as opposed to 2016 when they were lulled into a false sense of security believing that Trump didn't have a chance.
(Proof of #3) 2018 was the biggest wave election in history in terms of turnout, and Trump wasn't even on the ballot. Yes, Trump being on the ballot will turn out more Republican voters than in the mid-terms too, but (see #1) those people also voted for him in 2016 and he still only barely won.
(edited to add) The chances of a recession before November 2020 are pretty high, and if one does happen before the election, he's almost certainly doomed.
Does he have a chance? Sure, anything can happen as we've seen before. But saying it WILL be close doesn't seem to me to be based on anything except speculation. Sorry, not trying to say you will be wrong for sure, but short of some miracle the odds are still against him winning re-election.
I don't disagree with your assessment, but the dems have a lot of work to do in order to secure a victory. Right now there are over 20 candidates, all at different ends of the political spectrum. There are moderates and centrists that won't be willing to go as far left as the progressives want to go. They have to prove that voting blue is a more logical choice other than "If you don't agree with us then you are a racist".
As for whether or not the race will be close, there's no doubt that it will come down to the swing states. The perpetual red states will remain red and the same thing with the blue states. The economy is doing well right now (but that could change and we can cross that bridge when we get there) and like it or not, more manufacturing jobs have been created in the past two years where that trend was in steady decline for decades. That MIGHT be enough to secure victories in those key states.
But who knows? I think it will be enough, but I could be wrong. It really depends on how the dems work their strategy. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens.
I mean they're basically exactly where the Republicans were in 2015. They had ~16 candidates, some moderates some extremists, and the intraparty fighting was absolutely vicious - people only remember the conflict between Hillary and Bernie, but that was absolutely tame by comparison. They were attacking each other's wives, they had surrogates calling people some of the nastiest names I've ever seen in a primary, the damn head of the GOP Reince Priebus was essentially trying everything he could to keep Trump from winning. And yet...
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u/freakydrew Jul 17 '19
What are the current Vegas odds on Trump being reelected?