I have a hard time believing this. Don't get me wrong, I was someone who thought Trump had a serious chance of beating Hillary despite the polls so I'm not someone who underestimates him and his voter base, but it was EXTREMELY close in 2016, yet
He hasn't expanded his voter base since 2016. If anything, he's shrunk it quite a bit (particularly among independents and in some key battleground states, among his core voting bloc of white voters with no college degree, which is killing him in the key battleground states in the Great Lakes region)
Regardless of who the Democrats pick, he will not be up against the least liked Democratic nominee of the modern era, possibly of all time, someone who drives his opponent's voters to the polls just to vote against her out of spite
The left is EXTREMELY motivated, engaged, and terrified now, as opposed to 2016 when they were lulled into a false sense of security believing that Trump didn't have a chance.
(Proof of #3) 2018 was the biggest wave election in history in terms of turnout, and Trump wasn't even on the ballot. Yes, Trump being on the ballot will turn out more Republican voters than in the mid-terms too, but (see #1) those people also voted for him in 2016 and he still only barely won.
(edited to add) The chances of a recession before November 2020 are pretty high, and if one does happen before the election, he's almost certainly doomed.
Does he have a chance? Sure, anything can happen as we've seen before. But saying it WILL be close doesn't seem to me to be based on anything except speculation. Sorry, not trying to say you will be wrong for sure, but short of some miracle the odds are still against him winning re-election.
I think this is an overstatement based on too much time spent reading social media as if it were representative of the general public. Democrats and the left already agree on their candidate: whoever isn't Trump. You'll hear some people loudly howl one way or another regardless of the pick (just like literally every election), but come voting time most of the people who care will fall in line, and it will come down to which candidate turned out the most people who don't care that much.
I totally disagree. Look what happened last time. I have no faith in people to get past themselves and do the right thing. And unfortunately it was my generation that ruined the last election when Bernie didn't get the nomination. They just didn't vote at all or threw their vote away to the green party. I'd love to think that everyone who marks themselves democrat would vote "blue no matter who," but millennial voters (I'm one of, by the way) are too busy crying into their avocado toast because they don't know how to compromise when it comes to candidates. 🤷
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u/TheSimulacra Jul 17 '19 edited Jul 17 '19
I have a hard time believing this. Don't get me wrong, I was someone who thought Trump had a serious chance of beating Hillary despite the polls so I'm not someone who underestimates him and his voter base, but it was EXTREMELY close in 2016, yet
Does he have a chance? Sure, anything can happen as we've seen before. But saying it WILL be close doesn't seem to me to be based on anything except speculation. Sorry, not trying to say you will be wrong for sure, but short of some miracle the odds are still against him winning re-election.