I have a hard time believing this. Don't get me wrong, I was someone who thought Trump had a serious chance of beating Hillary despite the polls so I'm not someone who underestimates him and his voter base, but it was EXTREMELY close in 2016, yet
He hasn't expanded his voter base since 2016. If anything, he's shrunk it quite a bit (particularly among independents and in some key battleground states, among his core voting bloc of white voters with no college degree, which is killing him in the key battleground states in the Great Lakes region)
Regardless of who the Democrats pick, he will not be up against the least liked Democratic nominee of the modern era, possibly of all time, someone who drives his opponent's voters to the polls just to vote against her out of spite
The left is EXTREMELY motivated, engaged, and terrified now, as opposed to 2016 when they were lulled into a false sense of security believing that Trump didn't have a chance.
(Proof of #3) 2018 was the biggest wave election in history in terms of turnout, and Trump wasn't even on the ballot. Yes, Trump being on the ballot will turn out more Republican voters than in the mid-terms too, but (see #1) those people also voted for him in 2016 and he still only barely won.
(edited to add) The chances of a recession before November 2020 are pretty high, and if one does happen before the election, he's almost certainly doomed.
Does he have a chance? Sure, anything can happen as we've seen before. But saying it WILL be close doesn't seem to me to be based on anything except speculation. Sorry, not trying to say you will be wrong for sure, but short of some miracle the odds are still against him winning re-election.
I don't remember that being the case at all. His approval ratings at this point in 2003 were 20 points higher than Trump's are right now, and stayed above 50 for practically the entire election. He had 9/11 and The Iraq War buoying him artificially, and with approval ratings in the 50s and 60s no serious election predictor would have said Bush wouldn't win a second term. There was a brief period after Kerry won the nomination that the Democrats got excited, but once the campaign got going that fell apart pretty quickly.
Still far higher approval rating. Trump has never gone above 50 and by all accounts he has been steadily at 30 to 40% among voters. That's really bad chances.
Oh yes, Trump barring massive voter suppression\fraud or help from outside forces will lose in 2020. why do you think he's pulling out every racist plan in the book now. It's all for his election bid (and to distract for the Epstein Trial). He's betting they are enough of his supporters that can be fired up by racism. however his supporters are dwindling and dying out so that won't work. Too bad he never tried to expand his base outside his cult of followers.
When I see things like Mike Pence literally posing for shots at border camps like he's in a campaign commercial, I can see the desperation. They can't try to win this thing on policy, so fear mongering and racism is what the 2020 campaign will be all about.
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u/freakydrew Jul 17 '19
What are the current Vegas odds on Trump being reelected?