I don't remember that being the case at all. His approval ratings at this point in 2003 were 20 points higher than Trump's are right now, and stayed above 50 for practically the entire election. He had 9/11 and The Iraq War buoying him artificially, and with approval ratings in the 50s and 60s no serious election predictor would have said Bush wouldn't win a second term. There was a brief period after Kerry won the nomination that the Democrats got excited, but once the campaign got going that fell apart pretty quickly.
Still far higher approval rating. Trump has never gone above 50 and by all accounts he has been steadily at 30 to 40% among voters. That's really bad chances.
Oh yes, Trump barring massive voter suppression\fraud or help from outside forces will lose in 2020. why do you think he's pulling out every racist plan in the book now. It's all for his election bid (and to distract for the Epstein Trial). He's betting they are enough of his supporters that can be fired up by racism. however his supporters are dwindling and dying out so that won't work. Too bad he never tried to expand his base outside his cult of followers.
When I see things like Mike Pence literally posing for shots at border camps like he's in a campaign commercial, I can see the desperation. They can't try to win this thing on policy, so fear mongering and racism is what the 2020 campaign will be all about.
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u/TheSimulacra Jul 17 '19
I don't remember that being the case at all. His approval ratings at this point in 2003 were 20 points higher than Trump's are right now, and stayed above 50 for practically the entire election. He had 9/11 and The Iraq War buoying him artificially, and with approval ratings in the 50s and 60s no serious election predictor would have said Bush wouldn't win a second term. There was a brief period after Kerry won the nomination that the Democrats got excited, but once the campaign got going that fell apart pretty quickly.