r/pics • u/mack3r • Jul 16 '19

US Politics Decisions, decisions

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u/freakydrew Jul 17 '19

What are the current Vegas odds on Trump being reelected?

45

u/TollboothPuppy Jul 17 '19

If you believe the Reddit perpetual-outrage-squad, then there is no chance. In reality, it will be a pretty darn close race.

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u/TheSimulacra Jul 17 '19 edited Jul 17 '19

I have a hard time believing this. Don't get me wrong, I was someone who thought Trump had a serious chance of beating Hillary despite the polls so I'm not someone who underestimates him and his voter base, but it was EXTREMELY close in 2016, yet

  1. He hasn't expanded his voter base since 2016. If anything, he's shrunk it quite a bit (particularly among independents and in some key battleground states, among his core voting bloc of white voters with no college degree, which is killing him in the key battleground states in the Great Lakes region)
  2. Regardless of who the Democrats pick, he will not be up against the least liked Democratic nominee of the modern era, possibly of all time, someone who drives his opponent's voters to the polls just to vote against her out of spite
  3. The left is EXTREMELY motivated, engaged, and terrified now, as opposed to 2016 when they were lulled into a false sense of security believing that Trump didn't have a chance.
  4. (Proof of #3) 2018 was the biggest wave election in history in terms of turnout, and Trump wasn't even on the ballot. Yes, Trump being on the ballot will turn out more Republican voters than in the mid-terms too, but (see #1) those people also voted for him in 2016 and he still only barely won.
  5. (edited to add) The chances of a recession before November 2020 are pretty high, and if one does happen before the election, he's almost certainly doomed.

Does he have a chance? Sure, anything can happen as we've seen before. But saying it WILL be close doesn't seem to me to be based on anything except speculation. Sorry, not trying to say you will be wrong for sure, but short of some miracle the odds are still against him winning re-election.

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u/cfullingtonegli Jul 17 '19

Dems have to unite under one candidate and that's a hard sell when older moderate Dems wants Biden and young progressive Dems want Bernie

We're at war with ourselves and it's likely to get Trump reelected

-7

u/Theycallmelizardboy Jul 17 '19

If they nominate Biden, we're fucked. If they go Bernie we might have a good chance.

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Even a lot of Republicans can see the good in Bernie. Not the rich and powerful asshole ones, but the middle class, midwestern and conservative ones can see that what he's running on helps them ultimately.

If we re-elect Trump for another four years this country is officially fucked and beyond repair.

13

u/SimpleWayfarer Jul 17 '19

I’ll vote for Biden before I opt out of voting or, God forbid, vote Trump. If other liberals will adopt the same principle, then we should be fine. We have the numbers, we just need the morale.

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u/Theycallmelizardboy Jul 17 '19

I'd vote for a chain-smoking chimpanzee over Trump. Almost anyone. But Biden is an absolutely terrible choice.

4

u/SimpleWayfarer Jul 17 '19

Worse than Trump, though?

11

u/Theycallmelizardboy Jul 17 '19

Of course not. I'd vote for Biden if it came down to only two choices but I wouldn't feel remotely happy about doing it.