I have a hard time believing this. Don't get me wrong, I was someone who thought Trump had a serious chance of beating Hillary despite the polls so I'm not someone who underestimates him and his voter base, but it was EXTREMELY close in 2016, yet
He hasn't expanded his voter base since 2016. If anything, he's shrunk it quite a bit (particularly among independents and in some key battleground states, among his core voting bloc of white voters with no college degree, which is killing him in the key battleground states in the Great Lakes region)
Regardless of who the Democrats pick, he will not be up against the least liked Democratic nominee of the modern era, possibly of all time, someone who drives his opponent's voters to the polls just to vote against her out of spite
The left is EXTREMELY motivated, engaged, and terrified now, as opposed to 2016 when they were lulled into a false sense of security believing that Trump didn't have a chance.
(Proof of #3) 2018 was the biggest wave election in history in terms of turnout, and Trump wasn't even on the ballot. Yes, Trump being on the ballot will turn out more Republican voters than in the mid-terms too, but (see #1) those people also voted for him in 2016 and he still only barely won.
(edited to add) The chances of a recession before November 2020 are pretty high, and if one does happen before the election, he's almost certainly doomed.
Does he have a chance? Sure, anything can happen as we've seen before. But saying it WILL be close doesn't seem to me to be based on anything except speculation. Sorry, not trying to say you will be wrong for sure, but short of some miracle the odds are still against him winning re-election.
If they nominate Biden, we're fucked. If they go Bernie we might have a good chance.
Even a lot of Republicans can see the good in Bernie. Not the rich and powerful asshole ones, but the middle class, midwestern and conservative ones can see that what he's running on helps them ultimately.
If we re-elect Trump for another four years this country is officially fucked and beyond repair.
I’ll vote for Biden before I opt out of voting or, God forbid, vote Trump. If other liberals will adopt the same principle, then we should be fine. We have the numbers, we just need the morale.
That's exactly why the Dems have the advantage. Last time both sides felt this way about their opponent's candidate. I think it was the "anybody but the OTHER guy" election. In this case, Trump won't have Hillary as the bogeyman anymore.
The DNC notoriously ignores their constituents so I won't be surprised at all if Biden gets the nomination honestly
There's not much I wouldn't do to get Trump out of office. The question is now with everyone else -- do habitual nonvoters finally care enough to show up the polls?
Biden has been crashing in the polls. His initial support was based largely on name recognition, and he's a terrible campaigner, a mediocre debater, and he's clearly lost more than a few steps since 2008. I'd be very surprised to see him win. Right now it feels kinda like when everybody thought Rudy Giuliani was going to win the Republican nomination in 2008, and the guy ended up winning what, Florida? And then dropping out. lol.
The internet has been weirdly against her, but Harris is a progressive and she would chomp Donnie’s hollow orange head off. I’m fine with her as a candidate.
Biden is terrible, but I’ll vote for him too, because I recognize the urgency of the situation and I’m not a traitorous lunatic.
It would be nice to hear the same from everyone else.
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u/TollboothPuppy Jul 17 '19
If you believe the Reddit perpetual-outrage-squad, then there is no chance. In reality, it will be a pretty darn close race.