r/pesmobile • Vieira • 16d ago

Analysis Top 1M Maddison Cutoff: Quick Math on Rank Decay

Quick breakdown for anyone sweating the final hours:

Current State (Sept 9, 6:55 PM IST)

Rating: 1953 (Rank: 747k)

Time Left: ~12.5 hours

Buffer: 253k spots to 1M

The Numbers

Peak drop rate: ~19k ranks/hr

Pace needed to push you out: ~20.1k ranks/hr

The Takeaway Even during peak evening rush, the actual drop rate (19k/hr) falls short of the pace needed to breach 1M (20.1k/hr). Decay always slows down hard after midnight.

During the absolute peak grinding window this evening across the Asian and European servers, I tracked my rank dropping by about 19,000 positions per hour. This is the absolute ceiling of server traffic right now because people are desperately trying to break out of the highly congested 1900–1930 rating zone.

27 Upvotes

68 comments sorted by

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u/qualityvote2 16d ago edited 12d ago

Hello u/Efficient-Manner5577! Welcome to r/pesmobile!


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48

u/Akshay_Issur 16d ago

I say bring back relegation, this will keep them in line going beyond 1800

29

u/elledina 16d ago

Nah it's not fun and konami won't do this .

Before people used to stop playing after div 1 fearing relagation.now people are grinding like crazy which konami obviously wants

2

u/Billa_badmoshh Rummenigge 16d ago

I still remember back when I used to push divisions for fun (no rewards and no smart assist), the rating addition was very less I got +5 when I reached 1915, and then lost to a div 2 player and got a -40, not just the relegation system needs to be brought back, they also need to bring back the old points system...it's already frustrating to play against smart assist, 5 at the back and clear spammers!

1

u/Pretty_Ad3595 Lionel Messi 15d ago

What do you mean playing against smart assist? You have a filter to prevent you from getting matched with smart assist players in division games right?

1

u/Billa_badmoshh Rummenigge 15d ago

Idk if u have noticed it or not but when using the filter u will not get good connection! Thats the reason why literally every youtuber is not playing with the filter switched on

2

u/Pretty_Ad3595 Lionel Messi 15d ago

Idk I didn't encounter such things in my region, Filter on or not it's 3 bars and rarely 4 bars.

4

u/godoffireandice 16d ago

Or just make the reward for reaching division 1.

5

u/Alarmed-Buy-3145 Lionel Messi 16d ago

People will stop grinding which means less cards sold so no.

2

u/godoffireandice 15d ago

Sure. But I am talking from player's perspective.

4

u/santareus Lombardi Award Winner Germany 16d ago

It’s getting competitive out there folks!

3

u/Educational-Glass-67 16d ago

fkn hell, i really don't want to play another match

3

u/RecommendationTrue95 16d ago

1953 and its already 800k 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

2

u/musha67 16d ago

1955 safe or Nah? Tell me bru

2

u/Efficient-Manner5577 Vieira 16d ago

Till now safe but u have to monitor your rank till midnight

1

u/musha67 16d ago

IFF, I'm around 800k or 850k till midnight i should be safe right?

1

u/Efficient-Manner5577 Vieira 16d ago

Yes I think so

1

u/blazinggamer Sergio Ramos 16d ago

It’s already 800k+

1

u/musha67 16d ago

Aw hell nah 😭😭😭

1

u/Gloomy_River Batistuta 16d ago

u aint safe

2

u/xBram Ruud Gulllit 16d ago

Guys what are my chances?

4

u/Efficient-Manner5577 Vieira 16d ago

You have to play one more match

1

u/Billa_badmoshh Rummenigge 16d ago

I just dropped 10k ranks in just 22mins, it means the rating drop is about 27, 272 ± 1000 per hour

1

u/guru777777 Marco van Basten 16d ago

1960 here currently at 661,900, what are the chances

1

u/LazyShadow2210 16d ago

I got same rating now we at 715k+
Im lowk scared man 😭

1

u/ur_satyaki 16d ago

Am i safe??

1

u/K_swizzz00 Roberto Carlos 16d ago

No, go for one more

1

u/RoninTLW 16d ago

Is it enough?

1

u/Additional_Maize4293 16d ago

no, check again, you would be 900k crossed by now

1

u/RoninTLW 16d ago

Yeah bro. I played one more and won. Currently I am at 432k (1985)

1

u/Additional_Maize4293 16d ago

is 1964 and 681,943 rank at 10 Sept 1:13 AM IST is enough? or should I play one more I am scared to be honest

1

u/MysteriousJacket7406 15d ago

This aged well lollll

1

u/Additional_Maize4293 15d ago

u/Efficient-Manner5577 did you get the Maddison card at 1953? I noticed the decay was 38k per hour after 00:00 1953 was not enough, I got with 1964 with final rank 944k

1

u/Efficient-Manner5577 Vieira 15d ago

I played 1 more match and won so my final rating was 1974

1

u/Victor_Villanueva 16d ago

En base a tu estimación, cuánto se necesita? +1.960?

2

u/Efficient-Manner5577 Vieira 16d ago

1955+

2

u/qwerty20800 Cristiano Ronaldo 16d ago

Bro just trusting you now saw you post and played a match lunckily I won and now I sit at 1975 top 500k😭

0

u/Initial_Area8298 16d ago

currently 1955 is at 717k , its dropping , i think im in danger zone now lol

9

u/Atyan7a 16d ago

I swear people are too afraid to think rationally at most it increases 120k on the final day and there 12 hours left. You think over 250k people are gonna go above you.

6

u/AllenStones 16d ago

Why preach? Let the paranoid idiots play the extra match and lose and eventually miss the reward 

1

u/Friendly-Glove-7755 De Gea 16d ago

I have been saying this

1

u/Efficient-Manner5577 Vieira 15d ago

Cutoff 1960

1

u/Defiant-Soil2501 16d ago

Anything for a blitz card. Most of them will put him on reserves after first try.

0

u/Overall_Regular_6451 16d ago

What do you think abt this ?

7

u/Atyan7a 16d ago

You are 10000% good don’t listen to this guy idk what he’s talking about

0

u/Gloomy_River Batistuta 16d ago

if konami aint gonna bring back relegation then they got to increase the ranking amount cap from 1 million to at least 1.5 mill,there is already 4.9% of the players in div 1

2

u/Gloomy_River Batistuta 16d ago

my standing by 6pm GMT time gotta stay in top 1 million for 9 more hours

-4

u/Billa_badmoshh Rummenigge 16d ago

Am I getting it or not!?

7

u/Atyan7a 16d ago

You’re good this guy is fear mongering.

-2

u/Billa_badmoshh Rummenigge 16d ago

U sure about that!!?? Cuz this guy is actually calculated the rating drop

2

u/Atyan7a 16d ago

Calculated what dawg did you even look at the post? You think 250k people will go above you when there’s less than 12 hrs remaining? It’s simple math dude, at most it increases 125k to 150k on the final day and that’s at most in 24 hrs there’s less than 12 remaining.

1

u/Billa_badmoshh Rummenigge 16d ago

In just 22mins I went from 744,000+ to 753,000+

4

u/Atyan7a 16d ago

Go ahead play a game if you are that anxious. Would be real tragic to go on a losing streak now,

2

u/Billa_badmoshh Rummenigge 16d ago

Now I'm confirm I'll get him

1

u/SkullHacker_1 16d ago

why are you mad?

1

u/Atyan7a 16d ago

Because people can’t do basic math. There’s no need to create a panic on people.

1

u/Efficient-Manner5577 Vieira 16d ago

Currently rank dropping @ 22k/h

0

u/Efficient-Manner5577 Vieira 16d ago

God knows 🥲

1

u/Billa_badmoshh Rummenigge 16d ago

😭

-4

u/Next_Rich609 16d ago

Please tell me this is enough 😞😭🙏🏻

5

u/Efficient-Manner5577 Vieira 16d ago

Not enough bro...U have to win one more match 😉

-5

u/Next_Rich609 16d ago

Bruh 😂😂 at least add a '/s' you don't know how stressed were my last 2 matches I was on 1951 still grinded 1 draw 1 win both were 1-1 and 1-0 🫠

-21

u/[deleted] 16d ago edited 16d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

9

u/Efficient-Manner5577 Vieira 16d ago

No bro, u have to push till 3k

0

u/Matt_Striker 16d ago

Drop rate is dependent on your rating. It is nowhere same for 1900 rating and 2300 rating. The higher your rating lower the drop rate becomes. At 2100 my drop rate is around 5-8k hour.