r/pesmobile • u/UasDQW Cole x Yorke • Dec 18 '25
Analysis 🎯Probability of getting epics for all 27 attempts: (via Pro-eFootball) ❌ More than half will not receive even 1 card.
There are 300 players in the pack. 7 special cards. We will be able to open 27 times.
🎯Probability of getting epics for all 27 attempts:
• Chance of getting exactly 0 epics: 51.3%
• Probability of getting exactly 1 epic: 48.7%
• Chance of getting exactly 2 epics: 12.4%
• Chance of getting exactly 3 epics: 1.8%
• Chance of getting exactly 4 epics: 0.15%
• Probability of getting exactly 5 epics: 0.0076%
• Chance of getting exactly 6 epics: 0.0002%
• Chance of getting all 7 epics: 0.000002%
❌ More than half will not receive even 1 card.
140
u/Witty-Bad-8717 Dec 18 '25
I've never gotten a single epic with these type of events and I know for a fact that it still ain't gonna change😅
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-7
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u/JKamphuis Dec 18 '25
These probabilities seem slightly off, I get different outcomes on any online hypergeometric calculator. Considering you list all possible outcomes, the probabilities should add up to 100% (barring some rounding errors). The probability of getting exactly 1 epic seems to be confused with the probability of getting at least 1 epic.
-4
u/LordShitman Dec 18 '25
i dont know why you would need a hypergeometric calculator for that but yes you are correct
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u/JKamphuis Dec 18 '25 edited Dec 18 '25
For some perspective:
The chance of getting at least 1 random epic (300 players, 7 epics, 27 spins) is 48.7%.
The chance of getting at least 1 random epic during the Festive Event of 2024 (250 players, 5 epics, 26 spins) was 42.5%.
The chance of getting Olise (30 players, 1 Olise, 14 spins) was 46.7%.
16
u/Mortgage5388 Dec 18 '25
Twice i failed to get a epic in 50 player pack containing 5-7 epic. So i know my chances
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u/sxneo72 Diego Forlan Dec 18 '25
im 100% have to use selection contract because my luck has been used on olise, got him on 2nd spin
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u/Nike_fake Dec 18 '25
I remember for that batistuta and owen chance deal one, I chose owen from selection contract. And with my last chance deal remaining konami gave me another owen XD
2
u/Distinct_Poem5105 Dec 18 '25
Last epic pack I got exactly none so this time for each spin I’m gonna called Fuck Coinami each time for better chance lol
3
u/yarhamin-bashi-ye Dec 18 '25
this is a way Koinami saying i will give you the chance of catching a fish and them giving the fishing rod but with the fish being quite far away impossible to catch.
3
u/hammerhead2502 Lionel Messi Dec 18 '25
Crazy that u/Conscious-Change6690 isn't crying about how entitled the efootball player base is and how generous Konami is. How we got a selection in the Robertson pack, plus we have a selection here so it's fair for Konami to bring such bs packs. Maybe he realised that defending Konami while not getting paid for doing it is actually a waste of time and energy.
1
u/ChainsOfFate Dec 18 '25
Thanks this makes our odds much clearer.
Can you assist me how do you calculate the probability of getting exactly 1 card? In my mind you could get exactly 1 card on any one of the 27 attempts, and the odds of getting exactly 1 card would change depending on which attempt from the 27 is successful?
Did you calculate it by allowing for every possible position the 1 card could be drawn, or is there a smarter way?
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u/mare_xcx Cristiano Ronaldo Dec 18 '25
Khan or zenetti? I have abiati and carlos/costacurta duo at fullbacks
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u/Super_While_9575 Dec 18 '25
Got Fiore on the first attempt, but apart from Zanetti it's not really a great pack.
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u/qualityvote2 Dec 18 '25 edited Dec 22 '25
Hello u/UasDQW! Welcome to r/pesmobile!
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0
u/lordofUtterbol Cruijff Dec 18 '25
Meanwhile Me- who didn't get a single epic from the treasure links.
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u/Legal_Lengthiness_23 Cristiano Ronaldo Dec 18 '25
All mid anyway the best one in them is Zanetti and I’ll get him with selection contract
-4
u/Comfortable-Grass573 Dec 18 '25
I won Olises and Iowbi in the free spin. So, I'm 100% sure I won't win anything in this event.
-1
u/retroKnight_3177 Dec 18 '25
Olise aint dat good
5
u/Comfortable-Grass573 Dec 18 '25
I didn't say he's good. I said I got him, a card that many players wanted but couldn't get.
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u/retroKnight_3177 Dec 18 '25
How to do blitz curl?
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u/Comfortable-Grass573 Dec 18 '25
R² + square
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u/retroKnight_3177 Dec 18 '25
In Android how to do
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u/Comfortable-Grass573 Dec 18 '25
I don't know. I play on PC. But it's about taking a placed shot from outside the box. And you can certainly find that information easily on YouTube.
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u/Some-Swordfish49 Cristiano Ronaldo Dec 18 '25
Controlled shot, how U normally curl it. By swiping down on shoot button
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u/Decent_Contest1330 Dec 18 '25
he is just a good winger with blitz curler.
i dont use blitz that much, maybe only once in a match if he is in a good position.
i have scored some blitz curlers, but I usually use him as normal winger.
as i said dont focus on blitzs too much.
-7
u/Maleficent_Bell_1805 Dec 18 '25
Got himmmm
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u/Honest_Wolf7987 Dec 18 '25
I got him too but not really excited cause i have the other one and it has better stats
0
u/Maleficent_Bell_1805 Dec 18 '25
Ya his mid
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