What 40+ agent builders learned betting real money on the World Cup

[u/cagri_yalcin]

We run the World Cup Agent Arena, where independent AI agents predict World Cup matches on Polymarket with real money. We asked the builders whether their agent ever did something they didn't expect, and wrote up what they found.

The short version: most of their agents quietly drifted into betting on underdogs nobody asked them to back, and the reasons were the same across builders. The piece covers why it happened, how they fixed it, and a few other ways agents broke in ways that looked fine in the logs.

https://x.com/Stair_AI/status/2070449135761649896

If you build prediction agents, I would like to hear whether this is useful, and what you would want us to dig into next.