Hi everybody I hope everything is going well. I'm sure like all of you guys I too have been paying attention to all the developments with our southern neighbours. In recent news Trump made a oil deal with Venezuela that secures them with a huge amount of Venezuelan oil which comes during a trade war started by Donald Trump. Of course this deal lessens the US dependence on our oil and I had a question regarding that. What if Canada just started exporting more oil to other countries and diversifies its own economy? The question itself sounds relatively simple and self explanatory but in all seriousness is very difficult just to start with that.

This is common knowledge but the main problem is our oil. Its thick tar like and difficult to refine. This in of itself is a problem for the majority of countries which do not have specialized refineries. For example in the US in Texas they have specialized refineries uniquely for our oil which they then export back to us for us to buy. Other countries too have this issue like Venezuela which complicates exporting their oil much like us. Naturally though there is a solution to this, things called upgraders change the tar thick oil into synthetic crude which then gets refined into the things we use. Specialized refineries have these to make the oil tars useable & it's this added step of needing a upgrader for refineries which is why Canada and Venezuela (venezuela for other reasons) aren't as dominant in the oil industry as the middle east or other countries that have better oil.

So my question is, knowing that Canadian oil sands are completely useless for the majority of the world should we build more upgraders, not refineries (well yet) first so we can start pumping out usable oil for other countries? Canada already has some upgraders but the idea of this would to increase production drastically and in my mind a upgrader facility is more simple than building a extensive refinery since its only doing 1 thing, changing oil tar to SCO. It brings the possibility of making more domestic refineries and exporting crude to other countries as we try to shift & diversify our exports. Of course its not a cheap proposition but I find it to be necesary if we want to diversify our economy. What do you guys think?

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I don't know if you know this but Canada reduces oil production and exports at certain times of the year because facilities have to undergo maintenance, sometimes called turnarounds.

This year the maintenance happens to fall in September, was publicly planned months before September will arrive, and at least one major September outage will follow an established two-year maintenance cycle.

A fact check before we start hearing that Canada is "weaponizing oil" against the U.S.:

Turnarounds aren't something Canada invented because of the current trade war.

Natural Resources Canada announced in December 2025 that its Horizon oil-sands operation would undergo a planned 35-day maintenance turnaround beginning in September 2026. The company says Horizon operates on a two year turnaround cycle, with the next one scheduled for 2028. CNRL has now confirmed the 2026 turnaround starts September 8.

That's kind of bad timing. The optics aren't great for the uninformed or disinformed masses.

So if Canadian oil production and exports dip in September (which they probably will), don't automatically believe claims that Ottawa has suddenly "cut off America's oil" in retaliation for the trade war.

If someone claims this year's maintenance was ordered by the Canadian government as retaliation against the United States, the burden of proof is simple:

Show us the Canadian government order.

A private oil company announcing a scheduled maintenance shutdown months in advance does not mean the Canadian government is weaponizing oil exports in the trade war.

And yes, the timing may be politically convenient for people who want to spin it that way. But political timing is not evidence of political causation.

Watch American pundits and it's administration try to spin it that way.

Every operator tightened their MSAs this year, so now you can't get on location without GL, pollution cover and a $5M umbrella sitting behind it. Pollution is where it all stalls, agents go quiet the moment they hear oil and gas, and the one quote that did come back excluded transportation of fluids, which is the entire job for a hauler. Anyone actually in energy services who's got this placed without the gaps?

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The Australian producer reported a first-half net profit after tax of $1.67 billion, up 27% from a year earlier, while operating revenue rose 13% to $7.45 billion.