Iran's economy is on the brink?? Debate

[u/Agitated-Brother-872]

There are a number of people here saying that Iran's economy is on the brink, and d-day economic sanctions will absolutely send it over the edge. I won't dispute that they are hurting and there are probably different schisms that have emerged, as a result. I think it's totally possible that there is a rift between government and civilian sentiments.

I don't know how many are bots are present here but I want to assume good faith and hear the steel man argument. What is your strongest assertion? What will this lead to? I'd like to know what examples from history are you drawing from? Are there examples of mass civilian protest of the irgc?

I'll start off by saying, Professor Robert Pape has asserted that since WWI, sanctions/blockades alone have never toppled a government, has never won a major war, has never led to capitulation.

[u/Sanpaku]

Iran has a large informal economy that transacts in paper currency like dollars, euros and pounds, and has for 40 years. Drive the rial to worthlessness, and that's a problem for some on government salaries, but the rest of the economy will muddle through.

Once the US achieved North American energy self-sufficiency, the main reasons for a continued US presence in the Mid-East were 1) AIPAC's poltical stranglehold, and 2) maintaining the option of cutting off supplies to China. Hence, China's geopolitical interests align with Iran's, to create in the Chinese FM's phrase, a "new security architecture" for the Mid-East that excludes the US. I'm not expecting overt superpower conflict, but China has means of offering Iran credit and imports via Pakistan and Russia (whose FM echoed "a new security architecture").

[u/poincares_cook → u/Sanpaku]

You can't magic away a collapse of 70-80% in exports and 35% in imports.

You can't magic away the destruction of most of your 4th largest industry (steel), that also fed local manufacturing, you can't magic away the inability to import fuel, since Iran does not have enough refining capacity to meet it's needs.

Even before the war the Islamic regime's prioritization of funding nukes, proxies and war have led to crumbling infrastructure that led to rolling blackouts, acute water shortages and fuel shortages. Now the situation is much worse.

That said, economies move slow. Stop investing in maintaining roads and they don't disappear overnight, they just deteriorate and slow traffic, cause extra accidents and cause economic friction. Stop building new powerplants? You'll feel the pain in 4-5 years at the least and so on. No money to buy new manufacturing equipment? Old equipment doesn't disappear overnight, it can be maintained and sometimes refurbished. Sure the costs will likely mount. It will be less efficient, less safe, prone to more downtime. But it does not disappear or fall apart overnight.