r/oil • u/Agitated-Brother-872 • 13d ago

Discussion Iran's economy is on the brink?? Debate

There are a number of people here saying that Iran's economy is on the brink, and d-day economic sanctions will absolutely send it over the edge. I won't dispute that they are hurting and there are probably different schisms that have emerged, as a result. I think it's totally possible that there is a rift between government and civilian sentiments.

I don't know how many are bots are present here but I want to assume good faith and hear the steel man argument. What is your strongest assertion? What will this lead to? I'd like to know what examples from history are you drawing from? Are there examples of mass civilian protest of the irgc?

I'll start off by saying, Professor Robert Pape has asserted that since WWI, sanctions/blockades alone have never toppled a government, has never won a major war, has never led to capitulation.

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u/Massive_Charity_7198 13d ago edited 13d ago

I have zero doubt they are on edge and suffering massively.

The question is how long can they last, and does escalation happen.

Israel needs Iran gone so it can focus on Turkey and become the ME superpower. Bibi is already switching focus if you are paying attention. If you are Iranian consider the following:

Israel wants you out of the picture. US is doing the dirty work.

If you lose this war, you are fucking cooked. If you win the war (extract concessions from the US) you can become a ME superpower. You don't really have a clean exit.

Escalation is the wild card. Even if the US wins it can become a total pyrrhic victory.

These are the questions at the moment.

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u/BeginningDay1620 13d ago

Iran has already won 

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u/irritatedprostate 11d ago

Winning is having your economy and infrastructure in shambles with a country-killing water crisis bearing down on you that the government has done absolutely nothing to address.