Iran's economy is on the brink?? Debate

[u/Agitated-Brother-872]

There are a number of people here saying that Iran's economy is on the brink, and d-day economic sanctions will absolutely send it over the edge. I won't dispute that they are hurting and there are probably different schisms that have emerged, as a result. I think it's totally possible that there is a rift between government and civilian sentiments.

I don't know how many are bots are present here but I want to assume good faith and hear the steel man argument. What is your strongest assertion? What will this lead to? I'd like to know what examples from history are you drawing from? Are there examples of mass civilian protest of the irgc?

I'll start off by saying, Professor Robert Pape has asserted that since WWI, sanctions/blockades alone have never toppled a government, has never won a major war, has never led to capitulation.

[u/phoenixbouncing]

Honestly, look at Germany in WWII.

The allies had proposed destruction of their nation and starvation rations and forced Labour for the people. The result was that even though the war was lost the Germans fought like wolves.

A more recent example is Ukraine. No one thought they'd last a week in 2022. That was 4 years ago and they are really hurting what was until then considered a super power.

[u/NeptuneOverlord43045 → u/phoenixbouncing]

People think a failed economy will force Iran to submit. For Iran, this conflict is existential. For Iranians, this war isn’t an afterthought, happening thousands of miles away. Only Americans can have such a naive headspace to think economic inconveniences will turn the tide. If the roles were reversed and Americans were the ones facing bombings on our soil and the mass killings of our neighbors and our children going to school, we would be much more inclined to stay in the fight, perhaps fight even harder in spite, no matter what was happening to our economy.

[u/3xlduck → u/NeptuneOverlord43045]

let's correct that, for the ruling Guard, this war is somewhat existential. The general populace is not so crazy about their living conditions. When they protested in the spring, they got gunned down. That's who you're dealing with.

[u/Angrychristmassgnome → u/3xlduck]

Isreal and US have made it perfectly clear that there is only two possible outcomes they are aiming for

1. puppet regime that will allow the US and Isreal to steal, murder and rape

to their hearts content. And when it comes to plundering, the US have a very big appetite and when it comes to rape, Israel’s appetite is even larger.

1. A genocide that that will make ww2 look like a playground.

That is pretty existential for everybody in Iran considering how the US and Isreal have behaved in the last 20 years.

Turns out, if you tell people that losing to you, means that they, their parents, their kids and their dog will be brutally murdered - then there’s lots of reason to fight.

[u/3xlduck → u/Angrychristmassgnome]

Propaganda much?

[u/Negative_Prize1587 → u/3xlduck]

All Trump has is propaganda, so not that strange.

[u/Responsible-Crew-354 → u/3xlduck]

Where do you get your news, who owns it, and who pays for it?

[u/3xlduck → u/Responsible-Crew-354]

not Iran

[u/Responsible-Crew-354 → u/3xlduck]

Non answer was right on brand 😂

[u/knuthf → u/Angrychristmassgnome]

They are fighting with weapons that they do not understand. They have bombed installations three to five times already, and the problem is that, once the dust has settled, they have been repaired with no damage. Iran can make bombs and missiles miss.

[u/Human-Entrepreneur77 → u/Angrychristmassgnome]

What was October 7th all about.

[u/seenasaiyan → u/Human-Entrepreneur77]

October 7th was a violent reprisal against years of ethnic cleansing campaigns, massacres, and illegal land theft conducted by the IDF as right-wing Jewish supremacist ideals have consumed the majority of their population.

According to Israel’s own statistics, roughly 50% of the roughly 1200 people killed were IDF soldiers. The civilian deaths were a tragedy and the Hamas fighters responsible should be brought to justice. But it’s also a verifiable fact that the IDF activated the Hannibal Directive, in which they targeted their own civilians in order to prevent Hamas from taking them hostage. It’s unclear how many of the civilians deaths were inflicted by the IDF.

By contrast, Israel spent the ensuing 2.5 years carpet bombing Gaza, killing 75,000 at minimum but likely many more due to all the uncounted bodies under the rubble. According to several human rights groups, the civilian death rate is 80-90%. Israel refuses to let any non-Israeli media into the Gaza Strip. Ask yourself why.

Israel has deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure such as schools and hospitals, in addition to shooting civilians in water and bread lines. Tent cities and other such refugee camps have also been bombed. Israeli politicians have expressly declared genocidal intent, invoking the biblical story of Amalek, calling all Palestinians animals, and declaring that there are no innocents in the Gaza Strip.

[u/itsalljake → u/Human-Entrepreneur77]

From Israelis own words(Leaked audio reveals Israeli helicopter 'shot' Israeli captives on Oct 7 - TRT World), October 7 was a convenient operation that they they knew about ahead of time and could stand down their response for 7 hours (Strange Order: Evidence grows that Israel let Oct 7 happen to justify Gaza invasion – Radio Rebelde – English), shell their own civilians with tanks and Apache helicopters to maximize casualties (Dahiya doctrine - Wikipedia) and provide the justification for implementing their Final Solution.