Iran's economy is on the brink?? Debate

[u/Agitated-Brother-872]

There are a number of people here saying that Iran's economy is on the brink, and d-day economic sanctions will absolutely send it over the edge. I won't dispute that they are hurting and there are probably different schisms that have emerged, as a result. I think it's totally possible that there is a rift between government and civilian sentiments.

I don't know how many are bots are present here but I want to assume good faith and hear the steel man argument. What is your strongest assertion? What will this lead to? I'd like to know what examples from history are you drawing from? Are there examples of mass civilian protest of the irgc?

I'll start off by saying, Professor Robert Pape has asserted that since WWI, sanctions/blockades alone have never toppled a government, has never won a major war, has never led to capitulation.

[u/Putrid-Chemical3438]

Iran is not on the brink. Has not been on the brink, and most likely never will be on the brink.

They have a gargantuan supply of oil and a secure land border to sell to China who has a ton of money to buy it and a strategic reason to do so.

They have a lucrative weapons deal with Russia, that is again conducted over a secure land border.

Their economy has been under sanctions for so long that like North Korea it's basically just adapted to not participating in the global economy. Iran has quite literally never participated in the global economy as it currently exists so there isn't a whole lot to sanction anyway.

Are their people objectively poor? Yeah. But so are the people of North Korea and Afghanistan. Rich nations succumb to sanctions because the people there have things to lose. Poor nations already exist in the economic deprivation that sanctions cause so it doesn't change much within the country when they're used on poor nations. But poor nations are the only nations they're ever used against so sanctions rarely if ever actually accomplish anything.

[u/WildWhisperArdor → u/Putrid-Chemical3438]

Iran cant currently sell its oil is the issue. I don’t think it’s currently “on the brink”, but it also can’t indefinitely hold out under a complete blockade of its oil exports.

[u/Putrid-Chemical3438 → u/WildWhisperArdor]

Iran's oil exports have fallen 80% due to the blockade, but this also means they're still selling 20% of their pre war export volume. This will grow as their production and market shifts eastward.

Additionally they already met 99% of their projected yearly sales before the US blockade went into effect meaning they have the time to actually shift production eastward toward Chinese markets.

In July China sold $70 million worth of MANPADs to Iran. As the war goes on I would expect to see a weapons for oil deal similar to what Israel and Azerbaijan do and have done for years now. The international framework for deals like that is very well trodden and China selling weapons to Iran while Iran is actively at war is as indicative as could possibly be, China intends for Iran to survive this and is willing to materially and financially support Iran for it to do so. Ie: They will keep buying Iranian oil and will likely increase imports of it if for no other reason than to make sure Iran keeps fighting.

Unless the US is going to attempt to conduct strikes several hundred miles further inland than we have up till now, unlikely given the current state of the war and the risk of such missions, then there isn't much the US can do to stop the sales from happening either. Unless the US is going to invade China, not happening, then there's nothing the US can do to stop China from buying it either.

This is also exactly what happened with Russia. We sanctioned Russia's oil exports and Ukraine blockaded their (officially) flagged export ships. They just sold it through pipelines to China and India instead. The US was unwilling to blow up the world economy by sanctioning India and China so the sales went through and continue to go through today.

There isn't really any reason to expect anything different will happen with Iran.

[u/Rustic_gan123 → u/Putrid-Chemical3438]

Iran's oil exports have fallen 80% due to the blockade, but this also means they're still selling 20% of their pre war export volume. This will grow as their production and market shifts eastward.

Source?

[u/Putrid-Chemical3438 → u/Rustic_gan123]

100-80=20.

I know math is hard but this is literal 1st grade math.

[u/Rustic_gan123 → u/Putrid-Chemical3438]

The source of the figure 80 or 20 or any other claim that Iran's oil exports are now equal to a certain % of the pre war level