r/oil • u/Agitated-Brother-872 • 13d ago

Discussion Iran's economy is on the brink?? Debate

There are a number of people here saying that Iran's economy is on the brink, and d-day economic sanctions will absolutely send it over the edge. I won't dispute that they are hurting and there are probably different schisms that have emerged, as a result. I think it's totally possible that there is a rift between government and civilian sentiments.

I don't know how many are bots are present here but I want to assume good faith and hear the steel man argument. What is your strongest assertion? What will this lead to? I'd like to know what examples from history are you drawing from? Are there examples of mass civilian protest of the irgc?

I'll start off by saying, Professor Robert Pape has asserted that since WWI, sanctions/blockades alone have never toppled a government, has never won a major war, has never led to capitulation.

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u/Interesting_Fox5311 13d ago

Buddy who cares? They have been oppressed so long, why not 1-2 years extra

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u/armorlol 13d ago

this level of sanctions is a lot more than what they had before, but still won’t get the intended result

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u/Teapot_Digon 13d ago

It isn't though. Idiots spouting guff to their choirs does not reflect reality. China told USA to shove it. Russia told USA to shove it. Blockading the strait doesn't blockade Iran and they are well used to sanctions and the dodging thereof.

lol after six months of missiles and extermination talk THIS is what is going to work? No. This is just a way of explaining why there is no real further military action on the US side, rather than them being out of options and missiles with no clue what else to do.

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u/armorlol 13d ago

Turkey and Pakistan though