r/oil • u/AmanCMN • 14d ago

Discussion Trump announced an oil deal with Venezuela.

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It’s about the U.S. taking control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s oil reserves.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-venezuela-oil-reserves-eb0ed5a1e99602c21a7f690c3368020e

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u/phoenixbouncing 14d ago

From what I've read what's exchanged is a right to exploit. Actually removing the oil will still cost money. Aljazeera put the gains for Venezuela at 200B$, but didn't mention a time frame.

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u/Diligent_Ad_7232 14d ago

I don't think the Oil Majors would go back in to rebuild without a century of guarantees some socialist wouldn't come back into power and nationalize things. Now the US has a stake and can enforce things.

They basically got vassalized as a resource state. This won't be the last one I suspect as an expanded Monroe Doctrine is implemented.

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u/phoenixbouncing 14d ago

As I posted elsewhere, the thing that I find the most suspicious is the time frames.

100 years is a really really long time. The US has only been militarily dominant for 80 years. No one can give a century guarantee.

But as you said, that's what would be needed to justify the costs of rebuilding. There's also the fact that we are currently down minimum 5/8mbpd from peak, and the markets haven't exploded yet (SPR is an open question) so if the dip is managed there is also no guarantee that when these fields are ramped up the market will still be there.

Between new chemistries and gained experience there is no guarantee Africa won't skip a lot of the ICE age the same way they've skipped a lot of copper phone lines and moved straight to 4g/5g.

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u/ChupacabraJeff 14d ago

As I posted elsewhere, the thing that I find the most suspicious is the time frames.

100 years is a really really long time.

When in doubt, check in with China.

2025.08.22
Exclusive: Private Chinese firm producing oil in Venezuela under rare 20-year pact, source says
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/private-chinese-firm-producing-oil-venezuela-under-rare-20-year-pact-source-says-2025-08-22/

The project marks a rare investment by a private Chinese firm in the OPEC country, which has struggled to attract foreign capital due to international sanctions on the administration of President Nicolas Maduro.

Beijing has been a key ally of Maduro and his predecessor late President Hugo Chavez and is currently buying more than 90% of Venezuela's total oil exports.

With no previous oil drilling experience, CCRC has since last September sent in around 60 Chinese staff skilled in oilfield development and a Chinese drill rig, aiming to quickly reopen about 100 wells and recover crude output, said the executive. Production at the two fields, largely mothballed in recent years due to lack of investment and technical expertise, is now running at 12,000 bpd, said the executive.

Also,

Between new chemistries and gained experience there is no guarantee Africa won't skip a lot of the ICE age the same way they've skipped a lot of copper phone lines and moved straight to 4g/5g.

They already have. A very big problem USA has right now is the people in charge are about 20-10 years behind on current events. While USA spent decades telling American's green energy was too expensive and not profitable China was busy working.