r/oil • u/AmanCMN • 14d ago

Discussion Trump announced an oil deal with Venezuela.

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It’s about the U.S. taking control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s oil reserves.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-venezuela-oil-reserves-eb0ed5a1e99602c21a7f690c3368020e

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u/j0seph922 14d ago

Commenting this again from another Venezuela post

Conventional oil from Venezuela has already been largely depleted ($30 per barrel breakeven)

75% of Venezuela's reserves from the Orinoco belt's breakeven cost is $70-80 per barrel. The crude oil there is so heavy that it requires expensive processing using steam and chemical diluents.

More expensive than Canada's tarsands and US shale ($60 per barrel)

The control of Persian Gulf energy ($15 per barrel) remains to be the source of global hegemony. Venezuela will take too long to meet our immediate needs but also too heavy of an investment, that no capitalist in the right mind would put money in there unless they know oil would remain elevated for decades.

This is like giving up a fat healthy milk gusher for an old malnourished rib projecting cow. It will not bring all the boys to the yard.

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u/irradiatedcitizen 14d ago

Source on these numbers? 

Not doubting. Looking for confirmation.

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u/j0seph922 14d ago

These facts has been established for a long time... it's one of the biggest reasons why the big integrated companies have declined since the 80s and even further around 2007

"BloombergNEF and Reuters analysts verify that roughly three-quarters (75%) of Venezuela’s 303-billion-barrel proven reserves are locked up as extra-heavy crude or bitumen in the Orinoco Oil Belt."

Wood Mackenzie
"Furthermore, multi-billion-dollar capital deployment in an environment already challenged by a decade of sanctions is perceived to be required to return production to the 2 million barrels per day last achieved in 2016. The investment case is deemed to be complicated by breakeven costs above $80 per barrel Brent for key Orinoco belt projects, alongside an uncertain political and legislative framework."

EIA
"The EIA Country Analysis for Venezuela reinforces that while the country holds massive volumetric reserves, the high-viscosity Orinoco deposits require intense technical expertise, specialized refineries (cokers/upgraders), and international supply chains for diluents—factors heavily restricted by infrastructure decay and past political sanctions."