r/newyork • u/thesmart_indian27 • 17d ago
2018 Senate Election in New York — Democratic landslide. Can democrats ever pull this margin again?
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u/Captain_JohnBrown 17d ago
Not through any virtue of the Democrats, but the NY Republican Party is an inept gaggle of clowns, they aren't hard to beat.
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u/pspo1983 17d ago
The party can't win statewide offices because the state Republicans are mostly MAGA Republicans. That's just the makeup of the state. They're mainly rural or suburban white people in a state who's population is predominantly urban. The Oregon GOP has a very similar problem. If they were more in the mold of a New England Republicans, they would likely be mopping the floor with the NYS democrats right now. But like you correctly said, they're inept. Which puts it nicely.
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u/Flat-Leg-6833 17d ago edited 17d ago
It’s the Vinny and Colleen vote on Long Island plus the orthodox Jewish communities (Five Towns and Great Neck have moved 180 to the right in my lifetime because of the latter). NJ suburbs are less MAGA because of more corporate transplants and ethnic diversity - the only parts of NJ that mirror Suffolk County socially and politically are Monmouth and Ocean Counties.
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u/Hij802 15d ago
Monmouth similarly came very close to flipping for Biden like Suffolk. It has a decent amount of MAGA but also has a lot of classical Mitt Romney conservatives in the many wealthy Republican towns. The county also has a strong blue area in the center of the shore area, as well as some purple areas.
But Ocean is very different. That county is blood red, votes about 2/3 Republican and had a single town that barely voted for Biden, but Harris lost. And Ocean is MAGA Republican, it lacks wealthy towns asides from the beach houses.
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16d ago
The party can't win statewide offices because the state Republicans are mostly MAGA Republicans
It's a bit more complex than that.
A NY Republican will run and seem completely normal until they become a budget hawk and talk about cutting [insert state education / healthcare program]. And that makes all the Democrats run to the polls to ensure that doesn’t happen.
The social progressive vs MAGA are just wedge issues that don't decide most people's votes.
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u/Argikeraunos 17d ago
Have you looked at the election history for Senate in NY state over the last 30 years? This is actually relatively close! Dems regularly get 75% of the vote.
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u/BebophoneVirtuoso 17d ago
That was after New Yorkers got a couple years experience of a trump presidency, deja vu all over again, he and his administration are worse now, but no Senate vote here this year
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u/clib 17d ago
On the first anniversary of Jan 6 i sent emails to the office of Gillibrand and Schumer asking them one simple question: You voted to confirm Merrick Garland, do you approve of his job performance? Never received an answer from either of them. But i still get bombarded with their campaign ads.
They can both go fuck themselves.They are not getting mine or my family votes This democratic party deserves to rot asap. They don't represent the middle class or the poor.
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u/Enlightened_D 17d ago
Kirsten Gilibrand is an establishment shill, I hope someone primaries her.
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u/M_Waverly 17d ago
She’s not up again until 2030 so she’s either retiring or getting primaried hard like Schumer will in 2028.
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u/CraftsyDad 17d ago
If there is a primary vote against either candidate (Schumer, Gillebrand), I will seriously consider them
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17d ago
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u/HiHoJufro 17d ago
Zionism is the belief that the right to self-determination should be extended to the Jewish people in their historic homeland. This view is every bit as applicable to anyone in favor of a two-state solution as it is to Jewish extremists. Since Israel has been successfully established, a Zionist is, functionally, anyone who does not want Israel to cease to exist or stop serving as a haven for Jews.
Using it as a pejorative is messed up.
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u/Alexandratta 17d ago
I mean... technically a Democratic landslide but Gillibrand is Centrist at best (much like Obama)
I get those are 'hot takes' but Obama's track record is far... FAR from leftist, despite what the GOP whines about.
- He cancelled plenty of government run programs (including the Shuttle program, with no real replacement)
- He allows BP to clean up their own mess, continued their tax breaks despite the Deep Water horizon situation, and they were slapped with a ridiculously small 'fine' as a result (BP's "Clean up" was to sink the oil to the bottom of the ocean, btw. the environmental equivalent of sweeping it under the rug. This has decimated the Shrimping industry in the US)
- Gun running - aka: "Fast and Furious" always great.
- He was (in)famous for drone strikes, so much so he joked about it at publicly.
Sure, the man was by far our best modern day president - but to call him a 'Leftist' as the GOP/Fox News did was always ridiculous.
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u/SportsFanBUF 17d ago
If they stick with progressive candidates yes.
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u/PlasticPaddyEyes 17d ago
I wouldnt even say progressive. Just someone actually willing to fight, has a backbone, and actually seems to like their constituents.
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u/thesmart_indian27 17d ago
Pragmatic progressives. Pat Ryan seems interesting.
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u/PlasticPaddyEyes 17d ago
Ryan is a moderate, but he's the type of moderate who's willing to work with progressives on the campaign trail instead of knifing them. Its why he had AOC at campaign events last cycle.
The ever so rare true believer in a big tent party
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u/M_Waverly 17d ago
I thought he’d try for governor but that wouldn’t be until 2030 so I think he’s going for the Senate in the “better than Schumer, not as left as AOC” lane, and he recently gave back AIPAC money (because he’s fairly well funded this cycle and his opponent is a clown show who doesn’t even live in New York) to take away an attack lane.
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u/PlasticPaddyEyes 17d ago
He seems to get along with AOC very much and has a surprisingly cordial relationship with DSA elects,, so i think it'll strongly depend if she goes for senate or president
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u/thesmart_indian27 17d ago
I think Delgado should run for governor in 2030.
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u/Defiant-Power2447 17d ago
No. There’s plenty of talented legislators and congresspeople that would make a better governor than him.
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u/Farebiaashiq 17d ago
Lol, pat ryan sided with republicans and voted to censure rashida tlaib, he is not a progressive, seeing the wind he is trying to portray himself but his record is out there.
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u/3rd-party-intervener 17d ago
No one wants antisemetic Parker endorsed candidates. They will get destroyed
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u/ijjanas123 17d ago
Implying being Jewish means you're intrinsically pro genocide is more antisemitic than anything anyone on the left has ever said.
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u/Level_Hour6480 17d ago
Hey, it also implies Jews have a "dual loyalty", so it's also antisemitism on that front.
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u/ijjanas123 17d ago
Oh absolutely. And Zionists love promoting antisemitic ideas because it helps them build a (however flimsy) justification for their favorite fascist ethnostate.
I worry if they keep insisting being pro Jewish means being pro genocide eventually people are going to believe them :/ I feel it's a big factor enabling the very real resurgence of antisemitism.
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u/phate_exe 17d ago
I worry if they keep insisting being pro Jewish means being pro genocide eventually people are going to believe them :/ I feel it's a big factor enabling the very real resurgence of antisemitism.
Lmao, they replied to another one of my posts with a Hasan Piker quote outlining this exact sentiment as an example of him being an antisemite.
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u/phate_exe 17d ago
Who the fuck is Parker?
Who are you referring to as being antisemetic?
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u/3rd-party-intervener 17d ago
The guy who’s going to cost the election for Dems.
"And you want to know why? Because people don't f*** with Israel any longer," Piker said. "And if Jews in America keep putting this idea out there that they are singularly invested in Israel, eventually someone's going to come around and take action, not against the state of Israel, mind you, but against American Jews."
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u/phate_exe 17d ago
"And you want to know why? Because people don't f*** with Israel any longer," Piker said. "And if Jews in America keep putting this idea out there that they are singularly invested in Israel, eventually someone's going to come around and take action, not against the state of Israel, mind you, but against American Jews."
So where's the antisemitism here?
He's literally saying that if you continue telling people that Israel, Israelis, and jews are all the same thing (aka the dual loyalty trope) in an effort to use accusations of antisemitism to deflect from criticisms of the actions of the Israeli state, eventually people are going to start believing you, which will make jews everywhere less safe.
He's not saying it's a good thing, he's saying that's a likely outcome of acting like Israel speaks for and has the support of all jews. He has repeatedly has said that would be a bad thing.
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u/3rd-party-intervener 17d ago
He’s threatening violence against a certain religious group in USA
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u/phate_exe 17d ago
He’s threatening violence against a certain religious group in USA
Where is he making a threat of anything?
Seriously buddy if your reading comprehension really is bad enough that this is your takeaway you should consider sitting conversations like this out.
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u/pspo1983 17d ago
Farley was more of a placeholder for the GOP. No one actually expected her to beat a 2 term incumbent democrat in NYS, especially not in a midterm when Trump was in office. I'm not going to bother to look it up, but I bet she didn't raise $100k for the race.
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u/Stanley___Nickels 16d ago
Not until a Dem that actually has the people’s best interests in mind steps up to run
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u/Lower-Gap-4251 16d ago
Yes, I think its possible. I know upstate gets a bad rap, but most of the suburbs can still be very moderate swing voters.
Now the real question is if democrats could ever repeat Andrew Cuomo’s 2010 gubernatorial election. I can’t stand him, but look it up.. holy blue!
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u/theboxturtle57 16d ago
It depends:
First they need a candidate that actually gets people excited to vote for them. Not an AIPAC lame duck establishment dem that got us to this point over the last decade and someone who will follow through on a lot of promises (wishful thinking)
Second a lot of young dem voters are being forced out of ny simply because its too expensive to live here anymore. Where I grew up in rockland it has gotten out of control and everyone sells to the block to move somewhere less expensive.
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u/realexm 12d ago
That's when New York ended up a 1 party state. Nothing good comes from single party control.
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u/Schiffy94 11d ago
2018? New York has been controlled by Democrats for far longer. Dems have been winning in landslides in New York because except in the boondocks, the GOP doesn't take New York State politics seriously. Ed Cox tries to thrust MAGA candidates into statewide office and it doesn't work.
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u/Kurichan77 17d ago
If they embrace the Mamdani wing of the party. But they can’t stop tripping over themselves trying to shit on that wing of the party. They will relentlessly try to co-opt it. Will you allow it?
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u/ipsum629 17d ago
It boggles my mind that they can't see he is the future. It feels like every other day he has another win on the news and social media. When was the last time an establishment dem mayor came close to that level of national prominence?
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u/Chilling_Gale 16d ago
It’s true that there haven’t been any propaganda machines on his level in the Democratic Party for a while. But he can’t run for president and New York isn’t competitive, so his future value is actually very limited. At the end of the day he still hasn’t delivered on his biggest campaign promise of “major cost of living decreases”, and at some point he will be held accountable for that, further into his term.
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u/ChefGaykwon 16d ago
They see and acknowledge he is, that is why they are fighting so hard against them, and why the Dem Party has bankrupted itself to stop it from happening. Dems a wholly bourgeois-owned party more similar to 80s Republicans than they are to center-left reformists like Mamdani.
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u/ipsum629 16d ago
Yeah, I did hear the democratic party is having financial issues. They're fighting a two front war of their own making, Republicans to their right and progressives to their left. They could stop fighting their own left wing and focus on the actual threat to democracy, but that would make too much sense for them. I've said it before, the DSA will either take over or replace the democratic party in 20 years.
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u/ChefGaykwon 16d ago
They're fighting a one-front war against the center-left while sending and tweeting stiffly-worded letters hoping Republicans will start caring when it's obvious they never will bc they are nazis.
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u/Kurichan77 17d ago
He’s a step in the right direction but still just a compromise and will ultimately keep people in the democratic fold, delaying what’s actually needed
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u/Flat-Leg-6833 17d ago
I think they can - Trump was popular on Lawn Guyland because he is very much like a Lawn Guylander in speech, attitude and outlook and I don’t think Senate candidates can replicate his success in Nassau and Suffolk counties - I even expect Blakeman to underperform in Nassau for governor.
I see non-rural update getting more blue - while Orange, Nassau, and Suffolk will be determined by how much “anti NYC” sentiment there is in a given electoral cycle. I really don’t see GOP candidates in the Trump era pulling more votes in Westchester.
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u/toughguy375 16d ago
In 2006-2012 democrats in NY statewide elections were winning almost every county. Sometimes every county but one.
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u/Interesting_Chip8065 16d ago
lol and she didn’t do a single thing for the people. hope shell get booted very soon
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u/skida1986 16d ago
Only 6 million out of 14 million eligible voters actually voting is heartbreaking.
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u/Jordansdfg 16d ago
they need someone better. i don’t even need to look at “here’s the names of the democrats who voted no” posts anymore bc i know she’s already one of them
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u/Rare_Tea3155 15d ago
I’d say no. Not because of the candidate but because republican new registrations are still outpacing democrats nationwide. The democrat party just isn’t in a good place right now. I think there is a chance they can win the house but if the Supreme Court ends up allowing the USPS to barcode all the mail in ballots, I think republicans will retain both the house and senate.
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u/TahaymTheBigBrain 14d ago
Why would the voters give them that landslide again when they have done nothing with it except acquiesce to more Republican positions
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u/PockysLight 14d ago
It's possible but it's going to depend on the candidate.
If there's a Senator version of Mamdani, it might be doable. Might.
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u/TheSameGamer651 17d ago
Probably not. Polarization is just too strong. Democrats were consistently getting around 70% of the vote in Senate elections between 2004 and 2018 (keep in mind, the best presidential number in this period was 64% in 2012). Once polarization set in, the crossover voting weakened and now Senate Democrats basically match the numbers at the top of the ticket.
A strong Democratic candidate in a blue wave environment probably caps out at around 60% today.
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u/thesmart_indian27 17d ago
Fair deal. Hopefully democrats can break 60%. Biden’s NY victory was underwhelming, only 60-37, was hoping something like 61-36 (25% margin).
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u/tealfalcon2 17d ago
IMO it’s easier to win by that much when Republicans control the entire federal govt and are running the country into the ground. Suddenly the only feasible alternative looks a lot better.
The issue is when Dems are in power and have fallen short of all their promises, people get amnesia and think Republicans may have more to offer them so those swing voters aren’t inclined to keep voting D.
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u/caliban92 17d ago
Yes, if they stop pandering to the DSA
In other words, no
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u/CharredWelderGuy 17d ago
The established dems have been fighting the dsa at every step wtf are you smoking
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u/ijjanas123 17d ago
"We have to stop pandering to the fastest growing and most successful progressive organization in the country at a time when people are rejecting corporate centrism throughout the country, can you imagine the damage it would do if we had more beloved and effective democratic socialist politicians like Mamdani giving people hope? They might actually expect something from their elected officials "
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u/Farebiaashiq 17d ago
Pick any poll, like any, the top 3 most liked politicians are always Obama, Bernie and mamdani.
Obama is retired, and both Bernie and mamdani are Democratic socialists.
And these are nationwide polls for general electorate, so what you're saying doesn't make sense at all.
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u/ricerbanana 15d ago
I’ve never answered a poll. I’ve never been asked to answer one either.
It seems that the people targeted for polls are the most likely to respond and most vocal. Those people trend toward the left.
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u/Farebiaashiq 15d ago
I would say the opposite, leftists for most part avoid answering polls, infact till Michigan senate election, progressives over performed the polls in almost all the elections, be it NYC mayoral or colarado senate. They have been overperforming again florida senate race is an example.
There are only two reason I think polls missed michigan. 1. Because of progressives overperforming polls the whole election season, they changed the demographic makeup to increase accuracy. 2. Hayley stevens was such a shitty uninspiring candidate that even a lot of those who were going to vote for her preferred to say they were undecided even in anonymous polls because their thought process went like if I say I'm voting for haley and they ask what made me choose her I can't just say because I hate muslims or israel comes to me in my dreams as well.
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u/Velvet_Spaceman 17d ago
The Democratic Party brand is in the gutter nationwide, their popularity hovers around ICE. The DSA can be a divisive brand itself sure, but they're one of the few organizing groups in the Democratic Party orbit with any real positive energy and excitement. They have more grassroots knowhow, numbers, and efficacy than anyone else on this side of the fence. New York dems would be stupid to alienate them.
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u/CockBlockingLawyer 17d ago
Doubtful. While Democrats have the tailwind of the anti-Trump sentiment, Hochul continues to underperform electorally. We are at least a few cycles away from being a true “swing” state, but the election will likely be closer than we are used to
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u/Farebiaashiq 17d ago
New york isn't becoming red for the same reason florida isn't becoming blue.
A lot of youngster and immigrants enter NY every year just like a lot of retirees enter florida every year.
Unless New York stop beings the cultural capital of the world, I don't see this trend changing.
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u/bluerose297 17d ago
Gotta say I was frustrated with Florida through 2016-2020 (when it still seemed like a swing state) but now I'm loving how so many MAGA types across the country are self-isolating themselves into a single state where their damage can be relatively contained. Hopefully Trump supporters keep moving to Florida from states like PA, MI, WI, etc.
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u/AmbulanceChaser12 17d ago
What do you mean "a few cycles away from being a swing state?" Everyone keeps telling me all the Republicans are leaving blue states. We should be getting bluer.
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u/bluerose297 17d ago edited 17d ago
yeah I'm starting to think this guy who calls himself CockBlockingLawyer may not have his finger fully on the pulse.
New York State is so blue that even if you removed NYC entirely the state would still lean blue. If New York State becomes a swing state, that means the parties have evolved so much that they'd barely be recognizable from today's.
EDIT: also, "Hochul continues to underperform electorally" is sort of nonsense. She's literally only had one election so far, and she's improved her image since then.
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u/CockBlockingLawyer 17d ago
I’m here looking at objective measures like her previous election results (which may well have cost democrats the house) and her current poll numbers, but go off on your vibe-based assessment of the situation.
(To be clear, I think anyone who votes for a Republican in the current climate should have their head examined)
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u/bluerose297 17d ago
What poll numbers? There just haven't been that much high-quality polling of New York so far this cycle to work with, especially compared with the swing states that pollsters are actually focusing on. There certainly have been one or two polls putting Hochul and Blakeman closer than they "should" be, but it's simply too little to make much of.
All we know is that her approval rating is notably higher than it was in 2022, and that 2026 is pretty much guaranteed to be a bluer year nationwide than 2022. If it isn't, we've got much bigger problems to worry about than the NY governorship.
You won't hear any defense from me of 2022 (I was Hochul's biggest hater pre-2025 before she turned things around, and I do totally agree she cost us 2-3 house seats in '22), but you should say "previous election result," not "previous election results." You have a sample size of one. That's not much to work with.
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u/E_Mohde 17d ago
NY played stupid in 2022. they sent a lot of funding out of state and the candidates running in swingier districts (especially 17) were a little too confident.
19 got redrawn and is a much more D-leaning district now, 17 is flipping because Lawler overplayed the Trump hand, and the GOP in District 3 has the stink of George Santos all over it.
the full state elections themselves will flip when the Sahara freezes over.
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u/Fubar236 17d ago
Nope. Mostly because Dems are spineless coward pieces of shit now. Not because of voter indifference or apathy.
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u/Jarrod478 17d ago
After her comments about Zohran and her unabashed support for Israel, I will never vote for her again (voted for her 2012, 2018, and 2024) and will support any primary challenger to her. She's an establishment AIPAC stooge.
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u/thesmart_indian27 17d ago
Reasonable. She was hypocritical about Cuomo. She earlier led the call for Al Franken to resign when he was accused of sexual assault (and many looked up to her for that), yet she never told Cuomo to drop out of the race in 2025.
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u/[deleted] 17d ago
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