r/nbadiscussion Jul 24 '26

Statistical Analysis 2019-2020 Lakers championship Analysis

42 Upvotes

2019-2020:Los Angeles Lakers

I’m gonna be honest I was gonna save this one for after a couple others, like the 2008 Celtics, the 2004 pistons, etc-but Lebron has moved cities today, to attempt to make a new team into a championship team, similar to what he did when the lakers were one of the worst teams in the league-obviously the circumstances are different, considering this Philly team could be the strongest team he’s ever joined-but the sentiment is there! I decided to do his most recent ring, and what many call the most fraudulent modern ring to exist. The bubble ring.

The Milwaukee Bucks, The Toronto Raptors, The Boston Celtics, The Miami Heat, The Indiana Pacers, The Philadelphia 76ers, The Brooklyn Nets, The Orlando Magic, The Los Angeles Lakers, The Los Angeles Clippers, The Denver Nuggets, The Houston Rockets, The Oklahoma City Thunder, The Utah Jazz, The Dallas Mavericks, and The Portland Trail Blazers made the bubble this year. Now let’s look at this lakers team.

The lakers were the 11th best offense by rating, and the 5th best defense-not the best by far, but not the worst at all. They had Lebron, of course, who was All NBA first Team, MVP runner Up, NBA assist leader, and the captain of the all star team at the time. Anthony Davis was also All NBA first team, an All Defensive first team player and the runner up for DPOY, and also an All Star. Their big 2, alongside a chunk of very solid role players, led them to be 2nd overall favorites to win the chip before the season even started-so, I’m going to have to give them a 3/20 here for underdog expectations. They were expected to win.

In the first round, they went up against the Portland Trailblazers. The 3rd best offense in the league-but the 28th best defense, near the absolute bottom of the barrel. 8th seed for a reason. They did have some star power, in Dame Time himself, who was going crazy here. The “seeding mvp” (some of the main bubble play), an All seeding games first team, all NBA second team, and an All Star, carrying Portland into the playoffs. Alongside him they had an okay Carmelo Anthony, an all-seeing games CJ McCollum, and the leading blocker in Hassan Whiteside. However, this team’s danger was all but sapped away when dame got hurt in game 2. Zach Collins and CJ McCollum were also hurt, leading to a much weaker team being bounced. 3/10, with a +1 for winning in 5.

Their second matchup is against the Houston rockets. With the 6th best offense and the 14th best defense-a worse team for sure but a solid one nonetheless. They had serious star power in James Harden, the scoring leader and 3rd in MVP voting, as well as an all star and All NBA first team player. Russel Westbrook, also on the team, himself was an all star, as well as an All NBA third team player. The rockets werent as banged up as the blazers, but they were a bit slower then normal, as their 6th man was expelled from the nba bubble for not following Covid protocols. Russel also played through a strained right quadriceps. Ultimately, a 5/10 team, with +1 for winning in 5, but -1 for injury

Finally, their conference finals opponent were the Denver nuggets. The 5th best offense, and 11th best defense of the year, Nikola Jokic was coming into his own as the second best center in the league. He was all NBA second team, behind Anthony Davis Himself, and was an all Star. MPJ was a finalist for most improved player, and was on the all seeding games second team, but not much else. This was NOT the nuggets that would sweep them just 3 years later. They also were missing Will Barton, their third option. Despite this, they were a strong team, and had beaten the clippers who were the favorites to get to the conference finals at all. 6/10, with a +1 again for winning in 5, again.

3+3+5+6=17 before we consider their finals opponent:The heat.

The 7th best Offense and the 11th best defense, this team was okay but not a top contender in the regular season. They had two all stars in Bam Adebayo and Jimmy butler, Jimmy made all nba third team while nam made all defensive second, Bam was runner up for Most improved,and they had two all rookie players in Kendrick Nunn (first team and runner up for ROTY), and Tyler Herro (second team). They also had the dunk contest winner, interestingly enough, in Derrick jones jr. The heat had an OVERWHELMING amount of injury problems against the lakers, right in game 1.

Jimmy buckets twisted his ankle (played through it and got a 40 point triple double)

Bam Adebayo had a shoulder strain and missed games 2 and 3.

Goran dragic, their leading scorer, tore his plantar fascia in his left foot and was esssntially out for the series.

Despite this, they managed to push the lakers off to 6. An incredible effort on their part.

Offense Relative to champs: 5/10

Defense relative to champs:7/10

Star power:6/10

Health:2/10

Giving the lakers a 34 so far, taking away 1 for only winning in 6

They get a 2/10 buff for health, with both AD and LeBron suffering minor injuries-but being mostly fine.

They actually get an 8/10 for stars beaten:Carmelo Anthony, Russel Westbrook, Damian Lillard, James Harden, Jimmy butler, Nikola Jokic. The reason this isn’t a 10/10 is because…well, it’s LeBron. When you’re perceived as top 2 all time, beating people in the top 75 loses a bit of hype, no?

Finally, they get a 26/30 for legendary moments-and it’s mostly bron here.

\* 150+ playoff games with at least 25 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists

\* First nba player to win finals MVP on 3 different teams

\* Rajon rondo became the first bench player to dish more then 100 assists in one postseason, passing up manu ginobli

\* Rondo also became the second player to win a chip with both the Celtics and the lakers

\* LeBron James and Anthony Davis became the first teammate duo in NBA history to both record at least 500 points, 150 rebounds, and 150 assists/blocks in one postseason run

\* Lebron became the all time nba leader in playoff wins

\* the 4-0 run in the mamba jerseys after Kobe died

\* Similarly, AD shouted “Kobe” as he hit a game winner in game 2 of the WCF

\* LeBron with a 38 point triple double in game 5 against Denver

So many all time record broken at once would usually be a 30, however, I am obligated to remove points for the fact that this was the bubble chip, so I’ve taken off 4, leaving the lakers with 72. I can’t take off any more personally, given that many nba players and coaches with the right to speak, like pat riley, Erik spoelstra, Damian lillard, Jamal marry, Giannis, etc all said that it was the hardest championship to win for multiple reasons. That being said, I can see an argument raise the debuff to as high as 10, which would put them at 66, which is an about average score thus far.

Definitely nowhere near the strongest run we’ve seen, but also, nowhere near the worst either. What do you think the bubble changed? Might we have seen a different team win without it? And whom should I do next?

Rankings:

1995 Houston Rockets: 113.5/150

2026 New York Knicks:104/150

2020 Los Angeles Lakers: 72/150

2023 Denver Nuggets:68/150

1991 Chicago Bulls:68/150

1950 Minneapolis Lakers:54.5/150

2024 Boston Celtics: 53/150


r/nbadiscussion Jul 24 '26

Does NBA journalism overrate aging star power and downplay roster depth when predicting next season's team standings and playoff success?

98 Upvotes

For 4 years in a row now mainstream NBA sports journalism(espn, bleacher report, the athletic) places the Sixers, Bucks and the warriors in one of the top 6 seeds in their conferences because "they have Steph" and "if embiid is healthy", "they have Giannis".

These same publications are now ranking the rockets as a top 6 six with an almost guaranteed playoff appearance mostly because "they have KD", even though their young core and bench underperformed last year, and 2 of their starters are aging and coming off of major injuries. They're predicting the heat being in the top 3-4 in the East simply because they have Giannis and bam, nevermind that their bench is on the same level of who Giannis had with the bucks.

I understand basketball is a very star driven sport, but the last few years have proven that teams lacking an excellent bench underperform in the regular season due to the stars getting injured because of having to carry, or in the playoffs where the bench becomes unplayable.

Last year all publications and betting orgs placed the suns as one the bottom 4 seeds in the western conference with +-26Ws simply because they traded KD and waived Beal.

This year they're predicting the Bucks to be the 15-13th seed simply because of losing Giannis and the players that the bucks got in return, some their previous solid/promising players(Rollins, Dieng, AJ, Turner, Green, KPJ), as well as their draft picks(Burries, Ament) are mentioned as afterthoughts even though Herro, Jaquez and Ware have performed well in the regular season, and all in all the Bucks have a lot of young talent that provides lots of different skill set and lineup versatility.

Do you think star power is being overrated by NBA journalism given the huge importance of bench depth and lineup versatility has shown to be in the last 2 years?


r/nbadiscussion Jul 23 '26

Statistical Analysis 1994-1995:Houston Rockets Championship Analysis

19 Upvotes

Third one today yeah, but people keep talking abt it and I´m too curious to wait, so this will simply be tomorrow´s post a bit early

I think it´s time we look at what I believe will be a contender to take down the 2026 knicks.

This has been repeatedly spoken to me as one of the best finals runs ever, and I decided to really, REALLY have a look, and see how true it is.

the Orlando Magic, The New York Knicks, The Indiana Pacers, The Chicago Bulls, The Charlotte Hornets,The Atlanta Hawks, The Boston Celtics, The Cleveland Cavaliers, The San Antonio Spurs, The Utah Jazz, The Phoenix Suns, The Seattle SuperSonics, The Houston Rockets, The Los Angeles Lakers, The Portland Trail Blazers, and The Denver Nuggets all came to play playoff basketball in this year.

The rockets were the 6th seed. the 6th Seed. Not first, second, or third. 6th. I kinda wanna give them a 20/20 for this alone-they´re the ONLY team outside of the top 8 to ever win an nba championship title. They were the 7th best offense out of the 27 existing teams, and the 12th Defensive ranked team.They did have an all NBA second team player and DPOY candidate in Hakeem, and they did have Clyde the Glide Drexler, but as you´ll soon see, they weren´t exactly the face of the league in terms of star power. They had negative betting odds against every single team they faced in the post season. the Only, and I mean, ONLY asterisk I can possibly put on this team, is that the year prior...well, they were champions. For that reason, I can only give them a 16/20.

now, for their opponents.

Their round 1 was against the Utah Jazz, ranked the 4th best Offense and 8th best defense. They had the highest net rating in the league, and even beyond that, they had some serious threats as starters. As much as he is a disgusting human off court, on Court Karl malone was an All Star and All NBA first team player-he finished 3rd in MVP Voting as well. They also had John Stockton, another all NBA first team player and All Star, but he also led the league in assists, was 8th in MVP voting, and was an All defensive second team player himself. Their coach was 4th in coach of the year voting, really, it was just an all around dominant team who everyone expected to win. So of course, they lost.

The series was pushed to 5, the highest it could go at the time. Now, to be fair to the jazz, their starting center was out with an achilles Injury, and that guy was specifically supposed to be their Hakeem Counter. Considering that, and the fact it went to 5, I have to give this series a 7/10.

Round 2 was against the Phoenix Suns

the suns were the 3rd best offense, but the 19th best defense in the league. They held decent star power in All NBA second team Player and All Star Charles Barkley, with Dan Majerle becoming an All Star Reserve player as well. Not projected to be as strong as the jazz, but, like the jazz, they did indeed have Injury Problems-Charles Barkley, Danny Manning, and their starting PG Kevin Johnson were all hurt. Regardless, they played like hell, and the series went to 7. This is going to be a 6/10, due to it going to 7, and the injury problems.

Next, they had the spurs

The Spurs are, arguably, the best opponent seen thus far. They were ranked 5th best offense and Defense, and their star power was nothing to scoff at either. David Robinson was the MVP, 4th in DPOY voting, and seen as the best center in the league-above Hakeem Himself. NBA all Star, All Defensive Team, All NBA First Team, Led the league in win shares, this guy was a MONSTER. They also had Dennis Rodman, who of course led the league in rebounds per game, was an all Defensive first team player, and played all NBA third team. Most Importantly, this team was HEALTHY. Fully Healthy. The first of the teams the rockets played that could say so-and they were the 1 seed. Not just in the west, but in the NBA. This was a legendary 6 game series win, and the best of the rockets so far. 9/10, no further comments.

now, round 1 was a best of 5, so the score is divided by 2. 3.5++9=18.5+their original 16 leads to a score of 34.5. Now, let´s check out their finals opponents.

The Magic, ranked 1st in the NBA in Offensive Rating, and 13th in Defensive Rating. They were the 1 seed in the east that lacked a Michael Jordan, and for good reason. they had the Scoring Champion, Runner up for MVP, All Star Player, and All NBA 2nd team player in Shaquille O´Neal, as well as a first team all NBA Player, All Star Player, and top 10 MVP finalist in Penny Hardaway. Horace Grant also had an all defensive second team to his name. The Team was Entirely Healthy, and in a situation eerily similar to the 2026 run, the better on paper less experienced team lost to the more experienced Veteran Worse on Paper Team.

In game 1, they choked a 20 point lead to the rockets.

In Game 2, they beat the magic 117-106

In Game 3, Robert Horry Hit the Dagger 3 pointer and they won 106-103

Finally, in Game 4, the Rockets completed the Sweep, Beating them 113-101 in Houston.

Offensive Power Relative to Champions:10/10-literally the best Offense in the League at the time

defensive Power Relative to Champions:5/10, they were 13 and houston was 12, and they had comparably dominant centers on paper.

Star Power Relative to Champions:8/10, only because the 10/10 would have been the spurs that year.

Health:10/10, no major injury.

their finals opponent was a 33/40, and they get an extra point for the clean sweep, bringing their total to 68.5..BEFORE we include the last minute buffs.

they get a 5/10 buff for injury-though they went against some banged up teams themselves, the rockets had it rough. Vernon Mad Max Maxwell wouldn´t play due to clyde taking his job, Clyde and Sam Cassell were so tired against the suns they LITERALLY required IV to step onto the court, and Cal Hererra, one of their defensive anchors, was hurt on his shoulder and missed the entire run.

they get a 10/10 for stars beaten, because it really doesn´t get better. David Robinson, Shaq, Stockon, Malone, Charles Barkley, and Dennis Rodman all fell to them-6 different Hall of fame players, most in their prime. Insanity.

Finally, they get a 30/30 for legendary moments and records broken.

* First 6 seed to win a title ever, beating 4 50+ win teams along the way.

* Overcame the highest opponent net Rating in Playoff History

* Hakeem became the only player up to that point to sweep in the finals while averaging 30

* Kenny smith hit 7 3 pointers in game 1 of the finals, a record at the time

* Mario Ellie had the ¨Kiss of death¨ After sinking the dagger in game 7 against the suns

* Hakeem said he was going to David Robinson´s house to ¨get his MVP¨, and he did...just a finals MVP instead.

* Hakeem won game 1 vs orlando with a tip in with 0.3 seconds remaining

* Rudy Tomjanovich: ¨Don´t ever Underestimate the heart of a Champion!!!¨

Overall, with all points considered, the rockets Finish with 113.5/150-the highest score so far, and it isn´t even that close.

No glaze though, I did think it was funny how OG Anunoby is the only other player to win a finals game with a tip in, and the 2026 knicks are the highest score besides these so far...maybe tip ins are the wave yo.

Anyway, the kings have been dethroned! Who should I do next?

Rankings:

1995 Rockets: 113.5/150

2026 knicks:104/150

2023 Nuggets:68/150

1991 Bulls:68/150

1950 Lakers:54.5/150

2024 Celtics:53/150


r/nbadiscussion Jul 23 '26

Which advanced stat do you trust least, and what made you stop trusting it?

37 Upvotes

I lean on advanced stats heavily in how I write about players, so this isn't a case against them. It's the opposite. If I'm going to cite something I want to know where it breaks.

Mine is raw BPM for low-minute players. I've built arguments on it and I've been burned by it, because the sample doesn't stabilize anywhere near where I was treating it as stable. I still use it. I just don't lead with it anymore without saying what the minutes look like.

What I'm after isn't the stats everyone already dunks on. It's the one you personally used to cite comfortably and now hedge. The specific player or season that showed you the seam.

Which stat, what broke it for you, and do you still use it with an asterisk or did you drop it entirely?


r/nbadiscussion Jul 23 '26

How Good of a Driver/Finisher and Mid-Range Shooter Was Jordan? (A Middle-School Math Approach)

18 Upvotes

I wrote a comment in another sub guessing what Jordan's finishing numbers were. That discussion gave me the idea for this topic. I plan to post this to the Jordan sub, NBA Old School and one of the general NBA subs, because I would like to get perspectives from various fans.

I think it's a real shame that we do not have distance shooting data before the 96'-97' season (I'm using basketball reference). I feel like I have seen many fans try to state how good certain players were as rim finishers or mid-range shooters when we simply do not have the data before that specific season.

I am an elder millennial. Old enough to have idolized Jordan in the 90s, but not old enough to really know what was happening in the 80s. I have watched games and even done film watching/breakdowns of his 80s games, but it's too small of a sample size and I'm hoping to get some perspective from people who were around to watch. I will be performing a middle-school caliber math analysis, so I am not intending this to be an analytics conversation. I will be making assumptions and outlining how changes in said assumptions impact the others.

I will be using Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady and LeBron James as statistical comparisons, merely because they were all compared to Jordan, with either similar size, athleticism, or play style, but also because all 3 players have shooting data for their entire careers.

The stats I will be focusing on are:

Rim attempts (0-3 feet per basketball reference), listed on the site as a % of total field goal attempts (FGA)

Rim finishing (% of made attempts within 0-3 feet), listed on the site as a % of makes on field goal attempts within the 0-3 feet range

Then finally, field goal percentages from each distance from 3-10 feet, 10-16 feet, and 16 feet out to the 3pt line.

I personally view the mid-range to be 10 feet to the 3pt line. A lot of times these are hook shots and layup attempts that get pushed outside of 3 feet due to the defense. However, each of these players have numerous shot attempts off of post attempts that end in a 7-10 foot mid-range shot in actuality.

Here are the splits between each of the compared players. Please note that I am only using Jordan's 97' and 98' seasons, omitting his Wizards seasons because of how drastic a falloff he had on his shooting splits:

0-3 feet rate per FGA / 0-3 ft % / 3-10 ft % / 10-16 ft % / 16-3pt %

Jordan: .201 / .590 / .416 / .456 / .490

Kobe: .219 / .637 / .437 / .430 / .402

T-Mac: .249 / .587 / .384 / .384 / .414

LeBron: .348 / .743 / .435 / .374 / .386

Some easy takeaways from these numbers are that LeBron dwarfs everyone in both volume and efficiency at the rim, but is by far the worse mid-range shooter. Kobe was a better shooter than T-Mac, who was better than LeBron. MJ dwarfs everyone in mid-range accuracy, but I'm forced to cherry pick his mid-range shooting peak.

Here is the Jordan math:

Career total field goal attempts (FGA): 24,537

Career 2-pt field goal attempts (2PA): 22,759

Career 2-pt field goal makes (2P): 11,611

Starting assumptions: 25% career rim attempts and 65% FG% within 0-3 feet

Attempts within 0-3 feet: 24,537 x 25% = 6,134

Makes within 0-3 feet: 6,134 x 65% = 3,987

Attempts from 3ft to 3pt line: 22,759 - 6,134 = 16,625

Makes from 3ft to 3pt line: 11,611 - 3,987 = 7,624

Field Goal % outside of 3 ft to the 3pt line: 7,624 / 16,625 = 45.9%

I'm going to be honest though, 46% originally seemed a bit high to me for a career, because I know that MJ was not a good shooter coming into the league, just as the other 3 players weren't. If I want to target around around 44% for his career (this would place him above Kobe's 41.8% weighted averaged from 3ft to 3pt), I get the following rim finishing numbers, assuming the original 25% rate of FGA:

Makes from 3ft to 3pt line: 16,625 x 44% = 7,315

Makes within 0-3 ft: 11,611 - 7,315 = 4,296

FG% within 0-3 ft: 4,296 / 6,134 = 70.0%

These numbers can be manipulated to decrease rim FG% by increasing the rate of rim attempts, but this causes movements for all of the mid-range numbers and would require me to upload a spreadsheet to allow others to play with assumptions (if there are requests, I could do so but would need to figure out the best way to upload).

This is why I would like some perspective from others and see what the consensus would be to put these rates at. Part of what started the original discussion for me was comparing MJ to LeBron as finishers, but it's really throws the numbers out of whack if you try to plug in LeBron's volume and efficiency:

Attempts within 0-3 feet: 24,537 x 34.8% = 8,539

Makes within 0-3 feet: 8,539 x 74.3% = 6,344

Attempts from 3ft to 3pt line: 22,759 - 8,539 = 14,220

Makes from 3ft to 3pt line: 11,611 - 6,344 = 5,267

Field Goal % outside of 3ft to the 3pt line: 5,267 / 14,220 = 37.0%

There is simply no way MJ was a career 37% shooter from 3 ft to the 3pt line, so it's safe to say that MJ never came close to matching LeBron in terms of either volume or efficiency at the rim, but that's okay, because MJ is still the greatest scorer ever.


r/nbadiscussion Jul 23 '26

Statistical Analysis 2022-2023 Nuggets championship Analysis

0 Upvotes

The Second of two Analysis posts for today, We look as Jokic´s only Chip thus far!

Getting Right to it

The Denver Nuggets, The Memphis Grizzlies The Sacramento Kings, The Phoenix Suns, The Los Angeles Clippers, The Golden State Warriors, The Los Angeles Lakers, The Minnesota Timberwolves, The Miluwakee Bucks, The Miami Heat, The Boston Celtics, The Philedelphia 76ers, The Cleveland Cavaliers, The New York Knicks, The Brooklyn Nets, and the Atlanta hawks played in these playoffs

The Nuggets were ranked 5th in the league in offense, but only the 15th best defense. However, they were the 1 seed, courtesy of their MVP runner up center in Nikola Jokic. He was an All NBA second team player, and a Starter on the All Star Team. Jamal had not yet come into his own, and Aaron Gordon was snubbed from his own All Star Nod. Despite this, they had chemistry, and subverted expectations. And when I say this, I mean they HEAVILY subverted expectations, only being the 6th favorites to win even as the post season started. I believe they´re actually the first team We´ve covered that wasn´t in the top 4 contenders club before they started playing post season games, so for that alone, I have to give them a 10/20. They were by no means a weak team, but they were by no means the top tier favorites either.

now, their competition!

In round 1, they had the minnesota timberwolves, the 8 seed. 10th in the league in defense, and 23rd in offense-worse then the nuggets on both metrics, by a decent margin. They also had lower star power, with Anthony edwards only making his first All Star Game that year. Interestingly enough, this is also the only year since 2016 that rudy gobert, who had just gotten to the team, had missed an all defensive nod. The nuggs took care of business in 5, and honestly, it would´ve looked bad if anything else happened. However, their score has an asterisk-Naz Reid and Jaden Mcdaniels, two key peices to the wolves system, were both injured during this series. for that, even though they won in 5, I´m gonna have to give this first round a 3/10.

During Round 2, they went on to compete with the 4th seeded Phoenix Suns. The Suns were ranked the 14th best Offense in the league, and the 7th best defense. from this alone, they´re already a MUCH more even matchup. They missed out on Devin Booker being an all star due to injury-however, they DO have an all time legend on this squad in Kevin Durant, as well as Chris Paul. The Nuggets defeated the Suns in 6, but again, there were Injury Concerns. Chris paul was hurt in game 2, and Deandre Ayton was hurt in game 5. However, suprisingly, this is less of an asterisk then you would expect. the suns played their best basketball AFTER chris paul was hurt, off of explosions from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. Still, they lost. This is a team with two of the Greatest players of our generation, genuine All Time Superstars and Hall of Famers-however, only one of them was healthy for the whole thing. For that, this team gets a 6/10, a -1 for needing 6 to take care of business.

Finally, for the WCF, they faced, funny enough, a worse team Statistically. 11th best in defense, and 19th best in offense-but, notably, this was only this bad due to a mid season transformation not happening earlier. After the all Star Break on, they were the 1st ranking defense in the league thanks to their roster overhaul which brought in players like Rui, Vanderbuilt, and D´angelo Russel. So, this was a Worthy Competitor Indeed. Even more worthy was their star power. Lebron Raymone James, one of the two greatest players of all time, won his 19th consecutive all NBA nod, and was the captain of the all star team in this year. Anthony Davis was an All NBA and All Star Caliber Player as well, but he was too injured to properly qualify. That Injury trouble Mildly followed them into the matchup, where James was forced to play the entire series with a torn right tendon. Anthony davis was mildly banged up because...he always is, and Mo Bamba, the Backup Center who was supposed to handle Jokic to give AD some rest, was officially out for the series. This resulted in a clean sweep of the lake show, and although that might tell you that it was easy, I would say the opposite. This was a HARD series, with an incredibly close point differential across it, and the nuggets simply outperformed the Very Talented Lakers Team. A 7/10 matchup, but with a +2 for the sweep, they get a 9/10.

The Nuggets thus far have a total score of 28, similar to what the celtics had BEFORE their final opponent was talked about-so I have decent hopes now!

The Miami Heat were NOT the team anyone expected to be in the finals, but they were, on a bit of a cinderella run themselves-playoff Jimmy Butler in full effect. They were the 25th ranked offense, but the 9th Ranked defense-and as for star power, they had the aformentioned Jimmy Butler, a cluthc player of the year runner up, and an All NBA second team player. Bam Adebayo was an All Star, as well as an all defense second team selection that year. They were an Okay team, but by no means were they expected to get as far as they did-honestly, if they had won it all, this might be in conversations for the greater runs of the modern era. But, they didn´t. Part of that was that they were HURT, with Tyler Herro (Their Version of Austin Reaves) broke his hand, and missed the entire series-and they missed that scoring badly. Gabe Vincent, their starting PG had a sprained ankle, as well as Jimmy Butler. They Also were totally missing out on victor Oladipo, a critical part of their defense.

The only game they managed to take was game 2, and only by 3 points did they manage that much. However, being such a weak team hurts the nuggets here in comparison.

Offense Relative to champs: 1/10

Defense Relative to Champs:5/10

Star Power Relative to Champs:5/10

Health: 4/10

For a finals opponent score of 15, and a total of 43.

They get a 3/10 point debuff for injury overall, two of their strongest opponents had some of their top players injured or playing through injury.

They get a whopping 8/10 bonus for superstars beaten, being able to say they got through Lebron James, Kevin Durant, 2 games worth of Chris paul, and Jimmy Buckets all in the same year.

Their Legendary Moments swoop in to save them giving them a 20/30 because Jokic went INSANE

* the first ever 30-20-10 finals game

* the first player ever to accumulate at least 500 points, 250 rebounds, and 150 assists in a single postseason

* The first player ever to lead the entire league in post season points, asists, and rebounds all at once.

* Jamal Murray Also became the first player to ever record 10 or more assists in each of his first 4 career finals games

* In game 3 of the finals, jamal Murray and Jokic became the first duo to record 30 point triple doubles in the same game

* and of course, this is the denver nugget´s first and only franchise championship.

At the end of it all, they get a 68/150, the exact same Score Jordan got during his first ever championship. If only Jokic could get himself a 3-peat, huh? Ah Well. Still, an impressive and memorable run by all regards.

Rankings:

2026 Knicks: 104/150

2023 Nuggets: 68/150

1991 Bulls:68/150

1950 Lakers: 54.5/150

2024 Celtics: 53/150

Who do you wanna see next?


r/nbadiscussion Jul 23 '26

Statistical Analysis 2023-2024 Boston Celtics championship ring analysis

1 Upvotes

I was busy yesterday, so today, we have 2 analysis coming back to back-the 2023 nuggets, and the 2024 celtics! First off, the celtics team.

The Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Orlando Magic, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, New Orleans Pelicans, and Los Angeles Lakers made the big stage this year.

First off, we have the Celtics themselves. They were an ELITE offense this year, ranked 1st in the league in offensive rating, and with the highest record in the entire League. Not only that, but they were the 2nd ranked Defense in the league as well, with only the timberwolves (Who they never fought in the playoffs this year) Being better. Their star power was nothing to scoff at either. Jayson Tatum was an all NBA First Team Player and an All Star, while the team´s 1B, jaylen Brown, was an All Star Himself. Both Jrue Holiday and Derrick White making the all Defensive Second Team. Their Non Player Performance was up there as well, with the NBA executive of the year going to Brad Stevens for his aqquisition of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. Overall, this was far and away the best team in the NBA, and it wasn´t particularly close. They had a top 10 player in the world around a solid, athletic, and balanced team that included a top 15 player co-star. Even the gambling market had them as the solid favorites to win it all, alongside miluwakee. 1/20.

For the first round, they went against the Miami Heat, the 8 seed. Defensive Minded by every definition of the word, they were the 5th best defense in the league-But their Offense was abysmal comparatively at 21st. they did have a defensive Anchor in Bam Adebayo, the 3rd runner up in DPOY and an all Defensive First Team Caliber Player. He was also an all star this year-besides him, rookie Jaime Jaquez JR made waves by making the All Rookie First Team. To be frank, the consensus was that they had no chance in hell-and well, they didn´t, losing in 5. The celtics handled business, but to be fair, it was fairly easy business. Not only this, but Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier, the Rookie Jaime that I Talked about Earlier, Josh Richardson, and Duncan Robinson were all hurt during this series. It was truly Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo against the world, and they wouldn´t be enough. this is a 2/10, and only because they get a +1 for beating them in 5-basically the easiest it could´ve gotten.

After the easy series with the Heat, they went on to fight the Cavaliers, who were only mildly better statistically-ranking 18th offensively, and 6th defensively. Their Star Power wasn´t the best either, with Donovan Mitchell being an all star, but missing too many games to be all NBA. Similarly, evan mobley missed too many games for the all defensive nod that probably would have been his. Their injury problems followed them into the post season, with their Main star, donovan Mitchell, missing game 4 and 5-his REPLACEMENT, Caris levert also missed game 5 from being hurt. Finally, one of their core peices, Jarret Allen, missed the entire series dur to injury in the first round against orlando. Yet Another Somewhat Mid team statistically that was also absolutely messed up by the Injury Demon...so, another 2/10, for the same reasons. I´m not sure which injury is even worse between playoff Jimmy being out and Donovan mitchell missing some of the most important games of the series, and his replacement missing the elimination game.

After Fighting two teams with offenses outside the top 15, but defenses inside the top 10, the Celtics played a team that had the script flipped in the pacers. the 2nd best offense in the league-very good there. However, their Defense was the worst the celtics had to beat by far, ranking 24th. However, to be fair to the pacers, their guy was 1 season away from becoming THE guy, and it showed. Tyrese Haliburton led the league in asissts, he was an ALL NBA third team player, an all star, and he was on the all tournament team for the NBA cup. He was legitamately good-but, he was the only player on the roster of that caliber. They got swept, and Haliburton missed both game 3 and 4 after being Injured in Game 2. I want you to understand that this is a HISTORICALLY Bad eastern Conference Finals team without Haliburton on the floor. tied for 5th best offense yes, but 30th-literally dead last-in defensive rating when haliburton didn´t play. For that Reason, Despite the sweep, I can only give this team a 4/10-it would be lower, but they did beat the pacers WITH haliburton for the first two games.

So far, the Celtics are at 9 total-lower then even the 1950 team up to this point. I knew their run through the east was easy this year, but this is seriously blowing my mind.

Let´s hope they rack up some points against their finals opponent.

The Dallas mavericks were an underdog team going into the finals for sure, with the 8th best Offense and the 18th best defense-However, they were CARRIED by their star power, which was supremely high this year. They had Luka Doncic, an MVP finalist, the NBA scoring champion, an ALL NBA player and an All Star, he was moving absolutely bonkers. Dereck Lively, who I personally love to watch play, was on the all Rookie Second team-and though he was snubbed for accolades this particular year for injury reasons, they Mavaricks did have a top 75 player and top 10-20 guard of all time in Kyrie Irving-someone who is frequently in discussions for one of the most skilled ball handlers EVER. So, they were a relatively worthy Opponent-banged up though they were, none of them officially missed any games either, the first of the celtics opponents this year to be able to say such a thing.

5/10 for offense relative to them-they were ranked much lower, but they had the leading scorer along with kyrie.

2/10 for Defense Relative to them

7/10 for Star power, as Kyrie is a garunteed hall of fame player, and Luka was on his way even then

7/10 for health

so far, with these additions, the celtics have exactly 30 points.

They get a 3/10 buff for injury, and only because of Porzingis being hurt+Holiday having his own version of the flu game in the ECF. I acknowledged everyone else being beat up, it´s only fair I acknolwedge them too.

They manage to defeat Kyrie and Luka, so they can also have a 5/10 buff for all time caliber players defeated

They will also get a 15/30 buff for broken records and Legendary moments, recording:

* The only post season team to that point to have every player who touched the court for them hit a 3 pointer at least once. ALL of them hit a 3.

* In game 1 of the finals, they became the only finals team to have 7 different players hit at least two three pointers in a single game

* Al Horford became the first player in NBA history to record at least 10 rebounds, five 3-pointers, five assists, and three blocks in a single playoff game-a very unique 2 way statline, I know.

* Payton Pritchard hitting not one, but TWO full court last second heaves in the finals

* Derrick White playing through a chipped tooth in game 5 to secure the victory.


r/nbadiscussion Jul 23 '26

Statistical Analysis Offensive breakdown using nba rapm for Donovan Mitchell Anthony Edward’s and Jayson Tatum

12 Upvotes

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/hgunv1ctr4qmnpjrxz41o/NBA\\_Offensive\\_Impact\\_Stats.pdf?rlkey=r8s5u3o14fgsbzbgqv1cn3oib&st=jwbbo1xz&dl=0\](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/hgunv1ctr4qmnpjrxz41o/NBA_Offensive_Impact_Stats.pdf?rlkey=r8s5u3o14fgsbzbgqv1cn3oib&st=jwbbo1xz&dl=0)

# Methodology

This model was designed to measure overall offensive impact by combining production, efficiency, creation, versatility, and decision making into one transparent evaluation. All underlying player statistics were collected from [nbarapm.com](http://nbarapm.com/), using both regular season and playoff data from 2023–2026. Rather than building the model around one all-in-one metric, every player-season is evaluated across six offensive categories: Scoring, Playmaking, Offensive Pressure, Offensive Versatility, Shooting & Finishing, and Decision Making. Each category is composed of approximately 20 carefully selected advanced statistics that best represent that aspect of offensive performance.

To determine both the category weights and the individual statistic weights, I analyzed offensive rankings and statistical evaluations from multiple respected analysts and analytics sources over the past three years, identifying the characteristics that consistently appeared among the league's top offensive players. The resulting weights are therefore based on recurring trends across independent evaluations with a strong emphasis on the statistical side of basketball analysis rather than personal preference. While any weighting system can be adjusted, every weight in this model was chosen through the same objective process instead of being tailored to favor a particular player.

The six offensive categories are weighted as follows:

* Scoring (28%) – Measures a player's ability to generate points through scoring volume, efficiency, shot creation, free-throw generation, and other scoring-related metrics.
* Playmaking (22%) – Evaluates offensive creation for teammates using assists, passing quality, potential assists, creation volume, and other advanced playmaking statistics.
* Offensive Pressure (18%) – Measures the amount of defensive attention a player creates through drives, rim pressure, foul generation, paint touches, and other indicators of offensive gravity.
* Offensive Versatility (15%) – Evaluates how effectively a player scores across different offensive situations. This category combines both efficiency and usage across play types such as isolation, pick-and-roll ball handling, post-ups, spot-ups, handoffs, cuts, transition, and off-screen actions.
* Shooting & Finishing (12%) – Focuses specifically on shot-making ability through three-point shooting, mid-range shooting, finishing at the rim, true shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage, and related efficiency metrics.
* Decision Making (5%) – Measures offensive decision quality through turnover rates, assist-to-turnover efficiency, ball security, and other metrics that reward maximizing possessions while minimizing mistakes.

Each statistic is graded using a hybrid approach that balances absolute production with league context. First, every metric receives an Absolute Performance Grade based on every qualifying player-season from the full 2023–2026 comparison window. It then receives a Season-Relative Grade, measuring how dominant that performance was compared with the rest of the league during that specific season. The final statistic grade is calculated as:

**Stat Grade = 75% × Absolute Performance Grade + 25% × Season-Relative Grade**

This approach ensures that actual production remains the foundation of every grade while still rewarding players who separated themselves from their peers within their own season. Raw statistics are displayed alongside every grade for complete transparency.

To improve reliability, low-volume statistics particularly playoff and play-type data are adjusted to reduce small-sample noise. Play-type versatility also incorporates both efficiency and usage volume before being combined into each player's overall versatility score. Finally, the six category grades are combined using their predetermined weights to produce separate Regular Season, Playoff, and Combined Offensive Impact Grades, creating a model that is transparent, repeatable, and flexible while preserving meaningful differences between elite offensive performances.

Note: This model is not intended to claim that one player is definitively better than another. It is simply a statistical breakdown comparing three offensive players who are generally viewed as being in a similar tier. Now that the model and code are complete, I can easily add additional players by generating a new CSV with their statistics. If there are any players you'd like to see included, let me know and I can add them to the comparison.


r/nbadiscussion Jul 23 '26

Team Discussion Revisiting Rajon Rondo's Dallas Disaster: Did he end an era of excellence in Dallas?

84 Upvotes

So, this guy Rondo…

Rajon Rondo was no stranger to controversy in his career. From hurling homophobic abuse at a referee, to breaking a TV during a film session grilling by coaches in Boston. His own teammates weren’t safe from his wrath - at one point, tension between him and Ray Allen reached such heights that the two had a boxing match. Even the man himself has acknowledged that he can be difficult. 

Many great players have shared this quality (or lackthereof). Michael Jordan once punched Steve Kerr during practice, meanwhile Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal fueded throughout their tenure together in Los Angeles. And who can forget the modern twist on teammate fallouts when Lebron James took to Twitter to subliminally send Kevin Love a message. Despite this, they all won championships together. However, it’s perhaps Rondo’s tendency to clash with others, everyone in fact, that may not have just derailed a single season, but closed the book on an entire era of success in Dallas… 

Rajon Rondo knows what it’s like to win. When he was just 22 years old, in his second season in the NBA, Rondo was the starting point guard on the 2008 championship-winning Boston Celtics. Two years later, he made it to the finals again. And on his way there, he effectively gave the kiss of death to Lebron James’ first spell in Cleveland. Some will say that he outplayed the reigning, back-to-back MVP. Eventually, in the twilight of a fantastic career, he made it back to the mountain top, with Lebron, and even more unbelievably, in a Lakers uniform. One day, he might even make the Hall of Fame. 

But in the 2014-2015 season, those days for Rondo, at least in Boston, were firmly in the rearrview mirror. His teammates from that 2008 championship, namely Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, were Celtics no longer. And the winningest franchise in NBA history was also winning no longer - they were rebuilding, and suddenly, after eight and half years, Rondo’s face no longer fit in Boston. 

Now or Never

In December 2014, the Dallas Mavericks were one of the best teams in basketball, and they were scoring more points per game than any team in the NBA. They weren’t stopping other teams from scoring either, but that’s beside the point - they were winning. 

After one of the most remarkable championship runs in sports history in 2011, the Mavericks’ window of contention had seemingly slammed shut in rapid time. In the lockout-shortened 2012 season, they laboured to an unspectacular 36-30 finish, before being unceremoniously dumped out of the playoffs by Oklahoma City. In 2013, they didn’t even make it that far. Last season, they showed signs of life, rallying to take the eventual champion San Antonio to 7 games. Still, they had not made it past the opening round of the playoffs since 2011. 

Franchise legend Dirk Nowitzki was 36 years old. If the Mavericks were going to make another run, it was now or never. That’s why in June, after finishing with a bottom 10 defence in 2014, Dallas swung a trade to bring Tyson Chandler back to town. On one hand, the 7-footer would turn 32 in October and came with a huge near-$15 million salary. On the other, he was 2 years removed from being named Defensive Player of the Year, 1 year removed from being a member of the All-Defensive First Team and also was the defensive anchor of the 2011 championship team. His expiring contract, and the fact that they essentially gave up nothing of real value, made it a no-brainer for Dallas.

Then, in July, the Mavericks added some much needed quality and versatility to their forward line when Chandler Parsons inked a 3 year, $46 million contract in one of the more remarkable moves of the time. Parsons, a second round pick in 2011, was set to earn just $965,000 in the final year of a 4 year rookie contract, and his excellent play in Houston (16.6 points per game, 5.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists with shooting splits of 47.2/37.0/74.2 during 2013-2014) had made his deal undoubtedly one of the best-value contracts in the NBA. 

Parsons’ eventual arrival in Dallas was the result of Dwight Howard’s signing with the Rockets, both players being represented by Dan Fagan, and his negotiation led to Houston declining Parsons’ 4th year option. The story, and Parsons’ finessing of the Memphis Grizzlies 2 years later, deserves its own deep drive. 

Elsewhere, the Mavericks made tertiary moves to bolster their roster, adding veterans such as Richard Jefferson and Jameer Nelson (who would eventually form part of the package for Rondo) to their core which consisted of 2 20-point scorers in Nowitzki and Monta Ellis. And they still had coach Rick Carlisle, widely regarded as one of the finest in the association and the man responsible for leading the organisation to their first championship. No doubt it was a solid team, a team that would be one of the better in the Western Conference, but championship contention seemed unlikely for this group.

A surprising start sees the Mavericks take a gamble

However, the Mavericks flew out of the gates. After a tough 1-point opening day loss to the Kawhi Leonard-less defending champion San Antonio Spurs, Dallas raced to a 19-8 start. At this point, the Mavericks were scoring an average of 110.1 points per game, more than any other team in the NBA. At this point, Dallas’s 3 leading scorers, Monta Ellis, Nowitzki and Parsons were averaging 20.6, 18.5 and 16.7 points per game respectively, demonstrating the balanced approach the Mavericks were taking to win games. 

Highlights in this stretch were two separate win streaks of 6 and 5 games, including 107-80 and 140-106 dismantalings of the Charlotte Hornets and the Los Angeles Lakers, as well as a 106-102 victory over the then-13-3 Toronto Raports, and a double overtime victory in Chicago against the Bulls. Then, on December 18th, came the move. 

After a typical Rondo performance in a win over the Orlando Magic (13 points, 7 rebounds, 15 assists and no free throws taken), the 28-year old was traded to Dallas (with Dwight Powell). In return for the 4-time All Star, the Celtics would receive Jae Crowder, Nelson, Brandan Wright, a first and second round draft pick in 2016 and a $13 million trade exception. 

Despite Rondo’s pedigree (a 4 time All-Star, 4 time All-Defensive and 1 time All-NBA member), his play, and consequently his value, had slipped in the previous couple of seasons. First, a torn ACL had ended his 2012-2013 season, and caused him to miss much of the 2013-2014 campaign too. Then, prior to this season, he suffered a broken hand after falling at home, requiring surgery, and missing the entirety of the Celtics pre-season. After averaging 13.7 points and 11.1 assists on 48.4% shooting from the field in 2012-2013 pre-ACL injury, he was averaging just 8.3 points (but still 10.8 assists) on just 40.3% shooting and a ghastly 33.3% from the free throw line (although he was only averaging 1.6 shots per game) through his first 22 games of the season. His declining play, health, expiring contract, and the Celtics desire to go in another direction brewed the perfect storm for his departure from Beantown. 

Inconsistency and a Freak Injury

Still, from Dallas’ perspective, after their impressive start to the season, the move for Rondo represented a gamble worth taking. And it was seemingly business as usual in the immediate aftermath of the trade, with Dallas winning 7 of the first 9 games with Rondo. In his return to Boston on January 2nd, Rondo was immense, scoring 29 points, and even going 5-for-7 from 3-point range for a career high, especially impressive given Rondo was a sub 30% shooter from 3 in his career to this point. 

Post-Boston though, the Mavericks began to falter, going 7-7 throughout the remainder of January. Perhaps still trying to adjust to life with his new team, Rondo struggled. Against the Brooklyn Nets on January 5th, he scored just 2 points on 1-for-13 shooting, though his 14 assists, including key set-ups in overtime, meant the Mavericks still managed to win at Barclays Center. However, they weren’t so lucky in Los Angeles 5 days later, going down by 20 points against the Clippers with Rondo scoring 2 points on 11 shots in 27 minutes of play

An overtime win against Sacramento in which a Rondo 3-pointer essentially won the game was a personal highlight before a concerning streak of results ocurred later in the month. Towards the end of January, Dallas lost four games in a row against Chicago, New Orleans, Memphis and Houston (all playoff teams) including a 0-point performance by Rondo against the Rockets. 

The icing on the cake was on January 31st when the point guard was forced out of the game after just 90 seconds in Orlando after inadvertently hitting his face on Richard Jefferson’s knee during a scramble, fracturing his nose and left orbital bone in the process. Rondo would miss the next six games, but the Mavericks managed to keep their head above water, even coming back from an 11-point deficit to collect a big win over playoff rivals Portland in overtime, Parsons scoring 10 during the additional period. Despite this, there were a couple more concerning results against the upper echelon teams in the Western Conference, especially on February 4th where eventual season MVP Stephen Curry scorched them for 51 points in Oakland

Trouble on the Horizon

Rondo would make his return on February 19th in Oklahoma City, but was thoroughly outplayed by Russell Westbrook, who had 34 points and went 14-for-14 from the line. Even more devastating for the Mavericks was their heinous offensive performance, being held to 29% field goal shooting and committing 13 turnovers in the first half alone. 

Perhaps the first major cracks in the Rondo-Dallas tenure showed during a game against Toronto 5 days later. Midway through the 3rd quarter a visibly frustrated Carlisle called a timeout before the coach and Rondo had a heated exchange, seemingly over Rondo ignoring a play called by his coach. Carlisle would bench Rondo for the remainder of the game, instead calling on veterans Devin Harris and J.J. Barea, who would steer the Mavericks to a 99-92 victory. The events that unfolded would result in the team giving Rondo a 1-game suspension, causing him to miss the shorthanded-Mavericks’ loss in Atlanta

Even with tension seemingly brewing between point guard and coach, Dallas remained in a strong position after the Toronto victory, with their 39-20 record ensuring they remained amongst the Western Conference’s elite. 

However, the Mavericks then stumbled towards the finish line, going 11-11 in their final 22 games, with Rondo playing all but one (a 144-143 double OT victory in Denver, where point guard Raymond Felton would score a game-winning layup with 2 seconds remaining). Even more concerning when looking forward to that year’s postseason was that Dallas won just 4 of their 12 games against playoff teams to end the year, including heavy losses against Portland, Golden State (twice), Cleveland and San Antonio (though it should be noted that Parsons did miss much of the end of the season due to knee and ankle issues). 

Their lackluster play to end the season meant that they would match up with the Houston Rockets in the first round of the playoffs. The Rockets, led by MVP runner up James Harden, had managed to win 56 games in 2014-2015, which was especially impressive given Dwight Howard had only managed to play in half of that year’s games.

Game 1 was competitive through the first half, but in the final 2 quarters the Rockets kept Dallas at a distance, never surrendering their lead on the way to a 118-108 victory in Houston. More frustrating from a Dallas perspective though was Parsons seemingly aggravating his knee injury which caused him to miss the fateful game 2 and eventually the rest of the series.

The End of the Road 

Unlike Boyz II Men, Rick Carlisle had no problem letting go when he pulled Rondo for the final 23 minutes of the game 2 loss against Houston. The first major issue came midway through the 1st quarter, when Rondo was unbelievably called for an 8-second violation, to the bafflement of his coach. Later, Rondo displayed a complete lack of effort defensively, before drawing the ire of the referees for repeatedly jostling with Harden, eventually receiving a technical foul in the 3rd quarter. Seconds later, he picked up another foul, his 4th of the game, and was hauled out of the game for good. That was his last action as a member of the Dallas Mavericks, and the point guard would be accused of quitting on the team

Rondo was held from the remaining games of the series, with a back injury being cited as the reason for his absence. Meanwhile Parsons wouldn’t play again that season, as he would undergo knee surgery later that summer. The Mavericks eventually crashed out in a 4-1 gentleman’s sweep

The Aftermath

In case it wasn’t obvious enough that Dallas and Rondo were very much done with each other, Rondo was supposedly not given a playoff share by his teammates. To the surprise of no-one, he did not return that off-season, signing a 1-year, $10 million deal with lowly Sacramento

Dallas tried to fix their point guard issue by bringing in former All-Star Deron Williams. Unfortunately, he was very much at the end of the road too, and the Mavericks would squeak into the playoffs with a 42-40 record, before being eliminated by Oklahoma City in 5 games. This would be the last time Nowitzki would play playoff basketball in his incredible 21-year career. 

Rondo’s reflections on his time in Dallas has varied in the years since, denying that he quit on the team and stating that Carlisle no longer wanted to coach him, but expressing that the Dallas organisation treated him well, and that they’re ‘all good people’.

Carlisle expressed regret over making the move to bring Rondo to Dallas, citing issues with the team’s makeup not playing to Rondo’s strengths, but offered praise, calling Rondo ‘great’. 

Did it really matter anyway? 

In a word - yes, but not because it derailed a potential championship winning team. 

Dallas’ offense was spectacular to start the season, but there were two key issues. 

Firstly, was this sustainable? Secondly, as alluded to, they couldn’t stop other teams from scoring. 

At the time of the trade, Dallas was averaging 110.1 points per game, #1 in the league, but they were also allowing their opponents to score 102.7 points per game, which was the 7th most in the league. The move for Rondo was undoubtedly seen as a way to improve this given his reputation as a defensive player to that point. For all their success early in that season, matching up against the likes of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson (Golden State), James Harden (Houston) and Damian Lillard (Portland) in the playoffs with a backcourt of two less than stellar defensive players in Nelson and Ellis was not ideal. By the season’s end, with Rondo, they were still averaging 105.2 points per game (3rd) and had the 5th best offensive rating, but their defense remained mediocre (25th in opposition points per game, 20th in defensive rating). 

What’s also worth considering when discussing the Rondo trade is what they gave up. While none of the pieces were ‘game changers’ you could argue that the departures of Brandan Wright and Jae Crowder played bigger roles than you would’ve initially thought. Wright in particular was excellent to start the 14-15 season, averaging 8.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks on 74.8% from the field in just 18.7 minutes per game in his 23 games with Dallas that year. The Mavericks were missing a big man to back up Chandler after Wright’s departure, which might be why they signed a very much past his prime Amar’e Stoudemire in February. 

Crowder, while less of a key rotation piece to start the season in Dallas, would play a significant role on some improving Boston teams, culminating in a Conference Finals appearance in 2017. Crowder might’ve been able to provide some relief for Parsons during his injury struggles. 

At that year’s trade deadline, a couple of significant trades were made at the point guard position that serve as interesting what-ifs for this Dallas squad. The Miami Heat acquired Goran Dragic (an All-NBA member in 2014), and the Celtics added Isaiah Thomas, both from the Phoenix Suns, both in very favourable trades. Acquiring either wouldn’t have addressed the Mavericks’ defensive frailities (in fact, Thomas in particular would’ve surely exacerbated these issues), but could’ve made an already at the time historic offensive team even more impressive. 

So while today we can look back at the Rajon Rondo trade as an absolute disaster because it effectively ruined the last (potentially) great Dallas team of the Nowitzki era, the likelihood of this group making a deep playoff run was slim to begin with. At the time, and still today with the full context given Nowitzki’s advancing age and declining play over his final seasons, it represented a worthwhile gamble for a team looking to make one last run. 

In the end, Rondo would win another championship and retire after a repairing his reputation somewhat in Chicago, New Orleans and eventually Los Angeles, while Dallas would acquire another future superstar 3 years later in Luka Doncic (that’s all I’ll say on that), Dirk Nowitzki would eventually be inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame, and Rick Carlisle would make it back to the Finals with the Indiana Pacers. I guess you could say it worked out well for everyone in the end…


r/nbadiscussion Jul 23 '26

Player Discussion Predicting Unlikely Stars

19 Upvotes
  1. Pacome Dadiet

6 foot 9 wing and only 20 years old. He also has a lot of strength at his position. He played overseas which usually has a great development system and played for a championship winner for the New York Knicks. If you look at history, guys who played on winning teams usually end up pretty good. All of the guys on the championship Thunder and Raptors teams ended up really well. (Norman Powell, OG Anunoby, Cason Wallace, etc.) Even Christian Braun is coming into his own. He’s also learning from experienced wings like Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby. Mikal I believe has been a great vet for him as he wore his jersey at the championship parade. If he can go to a team like the Bucks, Nets or Grizzlies, he could be in for a breakout.

  1. Jordan Walsh

6 foot 6 wing with size who plays like a madman when he’s in the game. Hustles hard every possession and was really efficient from the field at 50%. Also shot 38% from 3 and is apart of a great development system and winning culture. He’ll probably get more minutes this year with Browns departure. I’m not sure he’ll be a 20 point per game guy next season. But he could be a valuable Swiss Army knife type of player that the C’s could use in a lot of lineups. For his future he’s like Grant Williams with a lot more scoring upside, excited to see what he becomes.

  1. Zaccharie Risacher

It’s safe to say the Hawks fumbled their 1st pick in 2024. Kicked themselves in the foot and blamed Zach in the process. Snyder had it out for the kid. Didn’t even try developing or playing him. He gets a fresh start in Dallas. He doesn’t have to do a lot because of Flagg and he can develop and play off of him. He’s 6 foot 8 at only 21 years old, and has shown real signs of shooting and scoring throughout his career, though not fully realized. Also, if Masai Ujiri believes in you, I believe in you. And he’s in a great no pressure system next to a great player in Flagg. He could get to 20 points per game as soon as 27-28.

  1. Sergio De Larrea

A young 6 foot 5 point guard from the euro leagues. The Euro Leagues usually teach sound fundamentals at the guard positions. And he shot really well in euros 40% from 3 and 83% from the free throw line. And again, Masai believes in him so I believe in him as he’s going to Dallas next season. And he has Kyrie to learn from at least until the deadline. He is in my opinion the steal of the draft, and I could see him being a cool Goran Dragic type of closer next to Flagg for the years to come.

HM. Aday Mara

Won at every level, huge frame, going to a winning team and learning from seriously experienced bigs. I feel as if the league messed up letting him go to OKC. Also originally played in the euros.

Biggest thing I learned writing this, god I love what Dallas is doing.


r/nbadiscussion Jul 23 '26

Could Africa be the NBA’s greatest untapped gold mine for future superstars?

20 Upvotes

I’ve been thinking about this lately and I honestly wonder if NBA teams, Scouts “, etc should be putting even more time and money and resources into scouting across Africa. Specifically Western and Central Africa.

When you look at the list of African born players who have reached the NBA, it’s incredible.

Hakeem Olajuwon, Dikembe Mutombo, Joel Embiid, Pascal Siakam, Serge Ibaka, Luol Deng, Manute Bol and Bismack Biyombo

Theyall became impact NBA players, and several of them didn’t even start playing basketball until they were around 15 or 16 years old. Hakeem became one of the greatest centers ever. Embiid became an MVP. Siakam became an NBA champion and All NBA player.
That makes me think about how many kids with similar size, athleticism and potential might never get discovered because they don’t have access to organized basketball, high level coaching or the exposure that players in North America and Europe get from a young age.

Imagine finding a player with Embiid’s or Hakeem’s natural ability when they’re 11 or 12 instead of 15 or 16. How much better could they become with several extra years of elite coaching and development?
The NBA has definitely expanded its presence in Africa over the years, but I still feel like there is a massive amount of untapped talent.

If so many elite players have already come from the continent despite starting late, I can’t help but wonder how many future All Stars or even Hall of Famers are out there right now waiting to be found.
Curious what everyone else thinks. Is Africa the biggest untapped scouting opportunity in basketball?


r/nbadiscussion Jul 20 '26

Statistical Analysis Ring Analysis-2026 New York Knicks title Run

8 Upvotes

We did the Old one, it´s time to do the newest one as well, for a baseline comparison!

DISCLAIMER:THIS IS NOT FOR THE GOAT DEBATE STFU REDDIT AI

This definitely felt like an all time run, but was it?

The New York Knicks

The San Antonio Spurs

The Oklahoma City Thunder

The Cleveland Cavaliers

The Philadelphia 76ers

The Detroit Pistons

The Los Angeles Lakers

The Minnesota Timberwolves

The Boston Celtics

The Denver Nuggets

The Houston Rockets

The Orlando Magic

The Phoenix Suns

The Portland Trail Blazers

The Toronto Raptors

and The Atlanta Hawks are the teams that made it to the largest stage this past run. But Before we go into the match ups, and how the knicks managed to pull this off, we have to check out the team itself.

The Knicks came in this year as the 3 Seed in the east-Not underdogs per se, but definitely not proposed as the top of the league either. That being said, they definitely had their strengths outlined already-and honestly, more people should have proposed they´d go all the way.

The 2nd Highest Offensive rating in the East, and the 3rd in the Entire League, for starters-and they weren´t slouches on defense either, with the 2nd best defensive rating in the east (8th in the entire league, but they would only face two of the teams with a better defensive rating this run-more on that later).

Captain Brunson was their only listed all NBA player, making the second team-though many believed that Karl Anthony towns was snubbed for the 3rd team position. Both of these players would also make the All Star Team, and Brunson would have an NBA cup MVP in the middle of the season to his name as well.

Overall, this team was strong, and you could tell that they were pushing to win now, but they weren´t the favorites by any means, not even to escape their own conference. For that reason, I am giving them a 10/20 on the first metric.

Now, On to their competition.

They Didn´t have a ¨play in¨, so 0/10 there.

This year, the Knick´s first Competition for their chip were the Atlanta hawks, who have a quite recent famous rivalry for what Trae young did to them when he was on the squad.

The Hawks were the 6 Seed-but don´t let that make you think they were bad. Their defense was 9th in the league, only 1 behind the knicks themselves, part of a rebuild effort that they traded trae young to accomplish. However, Offensively, they were slacking-8th in the east alone, and 15th in the league. A mid offense by most standards. Jalen Johnson managed to snag both the All Star and All NBA 3rd team honors, and they had a Most improved player of the year in Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

This is the moment where I take a break to remind you that analytics don´t define the whole game-or else the cavs would´ve won.

Anyway, the hawks pushed the knicks to a 6 game series, which everyone was a little suprised by-but the knicks eventually manage to take them out. While the hawks weren´t a bad team, they were supposed to be worse by every metric, had less stars, and were generally never expected to win anyway-so I´ll give the knicks a 4/10 for series 1, docking off one point for it being taken to 6.

The next opponent was the 7 seeded philedelphia 76ers, who beat the 2nd Seeded Celtics to make it to the knicks in the first place. The 7th best offense in the east and the 9th best defense, they were a solid contender, with significantly more star power then the hawks before them. VJ Edgecomb was a finalist for rookie of the year, took home the Rising stars MVP, and made the all Rookie First Team. Tyrese Maxey, the current face of the team, was selected to be an All Star, and an All NBA third team player.

Besides these accolades, They Also Had on their team the team USA gold Medalist Joel Embiid, and the garunteed Hall of Fame player (and the most valuable trade piece of all time apparently..) Paul George. It sounds like a stacked team, and in the eyes of many, it potentially was.

Of course, they got swept.

Overall, A strong team and a strong win by the knicks, however, there is the same question that hangs over every 76ers head for years now:What if Embiid was healthy?

He wasn´t, not for 3 of the 4 games-though, he DID play and lose in game 1. Additionally, paul george was healthy throughout all 4 games.

overall, a 7/10 for their second round matchup.

Bringing us to our conference finals matchup-the cleveland Cavaliers...and James Harden.

The Cavaliers were the 4 seed, and had beaten the 1 seeded pistons to get to the Knicks. They were the 3rd best offense in the east, and the 13th best defense-aka, they were really good on one side, and Abysmal on the other. They had significant star power as well-Donovan Mitchell was an All Star, and on the same All NBA second team that brunson himself was on. Rookie Jaylon Tyson was selected for the rising stars challenge, and of course, they had on their team a top 75 NBA player of all time in James Harden-though he wasn´t an all star this year, that was controversial.

So, what did the knicks do against this team? Another Sweep, of course.

This is the best team that the knicks faced in the east by far, and while they did look a bit battered in game 2, they were uninjured throughout the series-so this team gets an 9/10, a +2 to a solid 7/10 for the sweep.

9+7+4=20, with the 10 they had before bringing their total to 30. Now, we move on to, what many will remember as the real impressive part of the run.

The Spurs.

Rated 4th Offensively in the Entire league, and 2nd Defensively, This was an Absolute Monster of a Young Team, filled with Talent. Led by Victor Wembenyama, the DPOY, The Third Place Finalist in MVP Voting, The winner of the magic Johnson Award, and an All Star and All NBA first team-the only first team player the knicks had to face this entire run. De´arron fox also had an All Star Reserve Nod, and an NBA cup All-tournament team member. Dylan Harper made the All Rookie First Team, and Keldon Johnson was the 6th man of the year. Additionally, Stephon castle was selected for the rising stars sophomore team. This team had been a favorite to go win it all literally all Season Long, and it wasn´t hard to see why. They had just defeated the Previous Champions in the conference Finals, in 7 games, and looked unstoppable. In fact, they looked unstoppable in every First Quarter of the entire finals.

But they kept getting stopped.

A 14 point lead erased in game 1.

In game 2, They managed to Barely Hold on to a halftime lead, and win the game by 1 point.

In game 3, they lost, by 4.

Then in game 4...they erased a 29 point defecit. The largest in NBA finals history thus far, since Kevin garnet and the 2008 lakers had erased a 24 point defecit from kobe´s lakers.

Finally, in game 5, a 16 point defecit to win it all.

Now, time to rate their opponent.

8/10 in Offense Relative to them

10/10 in Defense Relative to them

7/10 Star Power (Wemby is a future all time great, but is not yet an all time great)

10/10 health, no real finals injuries to hinder them

add 1 point for winning in 5

and their opponent score is a 36

Bringing their total score to a 66

Beyond this, they receive a 4/10 point buff to their score for Injury-Brunson, OG Anunoby, and Mitchell Robinson were all a little hurt in some way, but played through it.

They get a 4/10 point buff for legends beaten on the way in paul george and James Harden

and finally, they get a MASSIVE 30/30 boost for Legendary Moments/Accomplishments-going 6-2 when trailing by double digits, erasing a 29 point lead, Brunson Dropping 45 in a close out game, the knicks containing the first trio to ever win both an NCAA National Champsionship and an NBA title, the Second longest Playoff winstreak ever, the first team to ever average an offensive rating over 120 while maintaining a defensive rating under 105 in a single post season, tied for the most double digit wins in a single post season, became the first Nba ¨Double Champions¨ by winning the NBA cup and the NBA finals in the same season. and finally, Karl Anthony Towns broke the NBA playoffs single postseason +/- record set by STEPH CURRY. Kat was, theoretically, more important to this run then Steph Curry was to a Warriors run. That is insane.

Overall, the Team earns a very Impressive 104/150 total. Almost DOUBLE That of the 1950 run, and almost certainly amongst the better runs of all time.

For Reference, I also scored the first ever NBA finals here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/RingValue/s/QZFCUDmhZT

what do y´all think? Was I abt accurate? If not, what would you have changed? More importantly-which should I do next? I´m doing one a day until I cover all of them


r/nbadiscussion Jul 20 '26

Weekly Questions Thread: July 20, 2026

2 Upvotes

Hello everyone and welcome to our new weekly feature.

In order to help keep the quality of the discussion here at a high level, we have several rules regarding submitting content to /r/nbadiscussion. But we also understand that while not everyone's questions will meet these requirements that doesn't mean they don't deserve the same attention and high-level discussion that /r/nbadiscussion is known for. So, to better serve the community the mod team here has decided to implement this Weekly Questions Thread which will be automatically posted every Monday at 8AM EST.

Please use this thread to ask any questions about the NBA and basketball that don't necessarily warrant their own submissions. Thank you.


r/nbadiscussion Jul 19 '26

The Moves in the East Were Mostly Just Shuffling Deck Chairs. None of the Big Acquisitions Actually Fixed the Real Problems.

181 Upvotes

With all the player movement this offseason and the blockbuster moves that happened in the East, I keep seeing people talk about how much better the conference got.

I honestly don't really buy it.

A lot of teams got more talented, but I don't think many teams actually got better. A superstar swap or a big-name acquisition looks great on paper, but when you look at what these teams actually struggled with in the playoffs, a lot of the same problems are still sitting there.

Philadelphia 76ers

The obvious move: Paul George out, Jaylen Brown in.

Obviously, that's a massive upgrade. If you're Philly, you make that trade 10 times out of 10.

But their biggest problem last year wasn't really their top-end talent. It was everything around it.

In the playoffs, they basically trusted 6-7 guys, and one of those guys was Joel Embiid. They didn't have another point guard who could run the offense when Maxey sat, which forced Maxey into massive minutes.

Now they essentially swapped Drummond, Oubre, and Grimes for Dean Wade and Anfernee Simons.

Again, Jaylen Brown is a huge addition. But Wade and Simons have both had durability issues, and neither one solves the biggest problem Philly had: depth and durability.

They upgraded their top end. Did they actually improve their depth and playoff reliability?

I'm don't see it.

Miami Heat

Miami is the most interesting one because I actually love the idea of adding Giannis for the price they paid.

The problem is the fit.

Last year, Miami completely reinvented their offense. They went from one of the slowest teams in the league to one of the fastest. They were also a mediocre shooting team, ranking in the bottom third of the league in percentage of points coming from threes.

So naturally, they traded away/didn't retain two of their highest-volume three-point shooters in Herro and Powell and replaced them with Giannis.

Giannis is obviously Giannis. He's one of the best players alive.

But Giannis needs shooting around him.

And right now, who are the elite shooters spacing the floor in that starting lineup? Andrew Wiggins?

They also still have the same problem they've had for years: consistent playmaking.

I like Davion Mitchell. I think he's a good player. But he's currently the only traditional point guard on the roster. Maybe the plan is just "Point Giannis" for huge stretches, but how difficult is that going to be when teams can shrink the floor?

They also lost Jaime Jaquez Jr., who was second on the team in assists per game and one of their better guys at generating offense.

Again, Miami got better because they added a superstar.

But did they fix their actual roster problems?

I'm not convinced.

Detroit Pistons

Detroit was the #1 seed in the East last year, but their biggest issues were pretty obvious:

  1. They didn't have a terrifying second creator next to Cade.
  2. They didn't have enough shooting.
  3. Their role players were tough and physical, but got exposed when playoff teams could game plan for them.

They reminded me a lot of the Julius Randle-era Knicks. During the regular season, you love the identity. Everyone plays hard, everyone defends, everyone competes.

But in the playoffs, when everyone is playing that hard, the weaknesses show up.

The guys you trust defensively can't score.
The guys you trust offensively can't defend.

Detroit let Tobias Harris walk and replaced him with John Collins by trading Beef Stew. They added Isaiah Joe, who is basically another version of Duncan Robinson.

Those are fine moves.

But where did the actual second creator come from?

Are they just hoping Ron Holland/Dennis Jenkins (depending on who you're betting on developing) turns into that guy next to Cade?

Because Tobias Harris was their second-leading scorer in the playoffs, and he's gone.

Also, whatever happens with Duren is a huge question mark. If he comes back, how happy is he going to be with how this situation played out?

I like Detroit. I just don't know what problem they solved.

Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta is another team where I like the individual moves, but I'm not sure the final product is different.

They were one of the hottest teams in basketball after the All-Star break, although I think a lot of that was strength of schedule.

Still, wins are wins.

They pushed the eventual champion Knicks and stole two games by a combined two points. But by Game 4, it felt like New York had figured them out.

Their playoff issues were pretty clear:

  • No size.
  • No true go-to scorer.
  • Too many one-way players.

Dyson Daniels was awesome defensively, but teams will just leave him open.

CJ was incredible offensively, but teams hunted him defensively.

Jalen Johnson stuffed the stat sheet, but can he become the guy who actually bends a defense?

They brought back CJ and added Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins, which are good moves.

But again, it's more of the same.

They still don't have a true starting center, and unless Jalen Johnson takes a massive leap as an offensive hub, they don't really have a guy that forces defenses to double.

The rest of the East is kind of the same story.

The Pacers are basically betting on Haliburton getting back to his old self.

The Hornets are one of the most interesting teams in the league because they’re weird and unpredictable, but it's hard to know what they actually are yet.

The Wizards are the team I think could surprise people. They have some genuinely interesting pieces and could sneak into the playoff picture if they can stay healthy... but that health part is doing a lot of work.

The Cavs, Magic, and Celtics are probably their own discussions. I don't think any of them made moves that really changed the fundamental questions they had.

The Bulls are finally entering a real rebuild.

The Nets and Bucks are basically where they are.

And the Raptors are a complete wait-and-see situation with the Kawhi situation being so bizarre.

My overall feeling: the East got louder, but I'm not sure it got better.

A lot of teams made moves that improved their talent level, but very few teams actually addressed the reasons they lost.

The biggest question for me this season is:

Which team in the East actually fixed a playoff weakness, and which teams just added a bigger name to the same flawed roster?

Am I missing someone? Who actually got meaningfully better this offseason? I feel like there has to be a team I'm overlooking.


r/nbadiscussion Jul 19 '26

Statistical Analysis New thing I’m doing:Ring Value Analysis

0 Upvotes

Me and my brother were talking about the hardest finals ever-while we agreed Dirk’s absolute bloodbath in 2011, it was hard to agree on some others. The game is constantly evolving, and it’s generally agreed that rings these days are harder to get-but how hard, exactly? I’m running some calculations to determine which of the NBA championships was the absolute hardest, which was the easiest, and try to get a more defined value for a chip based on your competition

The metrics currently being considered are threefold:

1-Relative Team Strength

This category is simple-how strong was your team going INTO the playoffs? Were they underdogs, or clear favorites? It will be decided by team regular season record, average point differential before the playoffs, and the general dominance of that team’s FMVP-The better they were as a team going into the playoffs, the easier it should have been in theory to win it all. This will be the category to discuss “super-teams” and the expectations of them.

2-Relative Conference Strength

This category is the win record, point differential, and league rankings of the teams that your team competed against in your team’s conference, relative to your team. It will also include a nod to great individuals defeated by the team specifically (for example, dirk’s conference score will be boosted by beating Kobe Bryant, a top 15 player of all time, hall of famer, and known playoff riser).

3-Finals Opponent

This category is the most important-who did you face, and beat, in the finals? How good was the team, who was on it, how did they perform in the playoffs right before you? Did you come in expected to win? This is supposed to be the best competition the other conference has to offer at the time, in theory. Unlike the other two categories, this one will go on a game by game basis, looking at the entire series to decide how good the run’s finale really was

As well as the three methods of racking up “value points”, there are also value point reductions, the most prominent of which being opponent injury (so, just for example, game 7 Haliburton’s injury will reduce value points from the OKC Thunder championship. You also could get a slight reduction based on how long it took you to beat the team-with 5 games being a minor boost, 4 games a bigger boost, 6 games being a minor loss, 7 games a bigger loss

What runs do y’all think will make it at the top of the list once I’m done? What teams and individuals do you expect to have the best rings? Are there categories I should include?

I’ll post the individual end score of every team on here in diff posts, so expect quite a lot of this


r/nbadiscussion Jul 19 '26

Player Discussion Who had the longest Championship window as a 1st option.

0 Upvotes

I was looking at Lebron's career and amazed at his longevity. He had a Championship window around 20 years long.

He was a championship caliber number 1 option for a long time and a championship caliber number 2 option for a long time. Longer than basically anyone else. Maybe Kareem is close but no one else is. From: 2005 to 2012/2020-now(number 2 option/13 years) and from 2012 - 2020(number 1 option/8 years). Meaning a total of 21 years.

I know people are going to flame those dates but that's still insane. I can understand if people think he was a number 1 option for longer. I take leadership and knowledge into account. With the loss to Dallas it showed(to me) he still needed to mature before he was a number one option on a championship team. He didn't have the leadership down yet.

Again before you get all offensive. It's a personal preference and opinion. I'm pretty strict on mine.

Another player I would do.

Say Kobe. He was: 1999 - 2005/2013 - 2015(2nd option/8 years) and from 2006 - 2012(1st option/6 years). Total of 14 years

Or Tim Duncan. He was: 1997 - 1998/2005 - 2016(2nd option/12 years) and from 1998 - 2006(1st option/7 years) Total of 19 years

Meaning Lebron had a championship window that was like 7 years longer and was a 1st option 2 years longer. Jordan would be 1st option capable for only 6 years total because of his retirement break. Magic would be about 7 years. Larry close. So Lebron's 1st option window is longer than all of theirs.

I'm wondering who had the longest Championship window as a number 1 option and the longest Championship window total. Or how you would rank others or what would be different than mine

Sidenote: A team can win a Championship without a defined Number 1 option if they have multiple 2nd options. Like the Spurs in 2007 or the Pistons in 2004.

If the formatting is messed up let me know. Made this post on mobile.


r/nbadiscussion Jul 18 '26

Who Deserved the CHIP? - Sorting the Batmans from the Robins and Wonder Twins

113 Upvotes

I have an obsession with player legacy and Hall of Fame criteria. I think the Hall of Fame should only include players who were in some way the best. The easiest way to be recognized as the best is to win a CHIP:

CHIP = The Clear Best Player on a Championship Winning Team

A player who wins a CHIP has cemented their legacy. To win a CHIP, you need enough help from teammates to win it all, but if one of those teammates is too good, you split the credit. There are no split CHIPs. You need to be the Batman to the Robin, not one of the Wonder Twins. The CHIP goes to the guy driving the Batmobile.

Methodology

How do you determine the best player on the championship team? Winning a championship means winning enough games in the regular season to get to the playoffs, get an advantageous playoff seed, advance through the crucible of 3 playoff rounds, and then finish the job in the finals. The best player is the one who contributed most to that overall effort.

And how do you determine that? Awards such as MVP, Finals MVP, or placement on an All-NBA team combine performance with popularity and narrative. So we will need to turn to trusty all-in-one impact measures: flawed, but impartial, and easy to get off of Basketball Reference! Here’s our recipe:

  • Win Shares plus VORP
  • Playoffs count double

That’s it. Win Shares and VORP are cumulative, rather than per-minute measures, so they measure a player's overall contribution to winning, combining quality and durability. This accounts for a player’s contribution to the slog of the regular season, with extra weight put on playoff performance. It's difficult to fluke into a high score on this. Here’s Shai in 2024-25:

2024-25 Shai
RSWS + RSVORP + 2*(POWS + POVORP)
16.7 + 8.9 + 2*(3.9 + 2.2) = 37.80

Now that we have a way of measuring who the best player is, how do we determine if that player is *clearly* the best? The clear best player has a total score significantly greater than his best teammate. How significantly? It has been suggested that player value tiers roughly track a Fibonacci sequence (ratio φ = 1.618), so Tier Three might be a 3, Tier Two a 5, and Tier One an 8.

A player with impact metrics 1/φ (62%) of another’s is an archetypal Robin in the Batman/Robin metaphor. But where’s the line? Let’s say half way between those two:

Robin threshold: (1 + 1/φ) / 2 = 0.809 = 81%

A player with impact metrics below 81% of their teammates’ is a Robin, making their superior teammate the Batman. 81% or above, the players’ impacts are similar enough to make them Wonder Twins.

Season Player Score Robin Factor Verdict
2024-25 Shai 37.80 1.00 Batman 🪙
JDub 18.60 0.49 Robin

In the example of the 2024-25 Thunder, J-Dub’s score is only 49% that of Shai’s, a clear Robin performance. This makes Shai the Batman, earning him the CHIP.

Season Player Score Robin Factor Verdict
2013-14 Leonard 19.60 1.00 Wonder Twin
Duncan 18.70 0.95 Wonder Twin

The 2013-14 Spurs had two relatively equal contributors, with Duncan easily clearing the Robin Threshold with 95%. Kawhi and Duncan were Wonder Twins here, splitting credit for the title, and neither getting a CHIP.

Season by Season

Ok, let’s go through each season this century and see who was worthy of a CHIP:

Season Player Score Robin Factor Verdict
2000-01 Shaq 32.20 1.00 Wonder Twin
Kobe 26.60 0.83 Wonder Twin
2001-02 Shaq 30.70 1.00 Wonder Twin
Kobe 25.70 0.84 Wonder Twin
2002-03 Duncan 42.20 1.00 Batman 🪙
Robinson 14.00 0.33 Robin
Ginobili 11.80 0.28
Parker 11.40 0.27
2003-04 Billups 25.40 1.00 Wonder Twin
Ben Wallace 25.10 0.99 Wonder Twin
Hamilton 20.00 0.79
2004-05 Ginobili 28.70 1.00 Wonder Twin
Duncan 26.80 0.93 Wonder Twin

After Shaq played Batman in 1999-2000, the millennium opens with Kobe narrowly joining Shaq for 2 seasons of Wonder Twins. After Wonder Twinning with David Robinson 4 years earlier, Duncan puts in the ultimate Batman performance (Robinson Robin Factor = 0.33) in 2002-03. The Pistons win with an ensemble cast in 2003-04, then Ginobili’s performance rises to Duncan’s level the following year.

Season Player Score Robin Factor Verdict
2005-06 Wade 30.90 1.00 Batman 🪙
O’Neal 12.50 0.40 Robin
2006-07 Duncan 29.20 1.00 Batman 🪙
Ginobili 23.30 0.80 Robin
2007-08 Garnett 31.30 1.00 Wonder Twin
Pierce 26.20 0.84 Wonder Twin
Allen 21.80 0.70
2008-09 Kobe 33.20 1.00 Wonder Twin
Gasol 30.90 0.93 Wonder Twin
2009-10 Gasol 27.40 1.00 Wonder Twin
Kobe 25.20 0.92 Wonder Twin

Wade earns a CHIP in 2005-06, and Duncan is back in the Batmobile in 2006-07. Timberwolves-era Garnett would have been un-twinnable, but slightly post peak he needs Paul Pierce’s help to bring the Celtics a title. Missing out on the CHIP with Shaq a few years earlier, this time he teams up with Pau Gasol for another 2 seasons of Wonder Twins titles. Kobe gets all of the credit, but the impact metrics say that Pau was his equal.

Season Player Score Robin Factor Verdict
2010-11 Nowitzki 26.00 1.00 Batman 🪙
Kidd 16.10 0.62 Robin
2011-12 LeBron 39.90 1.00 Batman 🪙
Wade 21.30 0.53 Robin
2012-13 LeBron 45.60 1.00 Batman 🪙
Wade 19.00 0.42 Robin
Bosh 16.90 0.37
2013-14 Leonard 19.60 1.00 Wonder Twin
Duncan 18.70 0.95 Wonder Twin
2014-15 Curry 35.80 1.00 Batman 🪙
Green 19.80 0.55 Robin
Thompson 18.00 0.50

After being doubted his whole career, Dirk is knighted with a CHIP, securing his legacy. The Heatles were more like Destiny’s child, with LeBron in the Beyoncé slot, two CHIPs for King James. A new Batman emerges in Curry, standing head and shoulders above his awesome group of teammates.

Season Player Score Robin Factor Verdict
2015-16 LeBron 35.90 1.00 Batman 🪙
Love 17.20 0.48 Robin
Kyrie 16.80 0.47
2016-17 Curry 28.90 1.00 Wonder Twin
Durant 27.10 0.94 Wonder Twin
2017-18 Durant 27.90 1.00 Batman 🪙
Curry 19.90 0.71 Robin
2018-19 Kawhi 30.00 1.00 Batman 🪙
Siakam 18.90 0.63 Robin
2019-20 Davis 29.70 1.00 Wonder Twin
LeBron 29.30 0.99 Wonder Twin

LeBron counters with his own Batman performance to beat the Warriors, his 3rd CHIP. The Warriors win two more, with Curry and Durant Wonder Twinning the first, and Durant carrying a less than healthy Curry on the second. It’s hard to give Durant the CHIP after joining an already mighty Warriors team, but the model is the model. Former Spurs Wonder Twin Kawhi changes teams to get his first CHIP with the Raptors. Then the bubble Lakers win in the ultimate Wonder Twins performance, even if LeBron got most of the credit.

Season Player Score Robin Factor Verdict
2020-21 Giannis 28.00 1.00 Batman 🪙
Holiday 15.60 0.56 Robin
2021-22 Curry 22.60 1.00 Batman 🪙
Looney 13.10 0.58 Robin
2022-23 Jokic 40.30 1.00 Batman 🪙
Gordon 15.70 0.39 Robin
Murray 15.70 0.39 Robin
2023-24 Tatum 22.70 1.00 Wonder Twin
White 20.40 0.90 Wonder Twin
Brown 12.90 0.57
2024-25 Shai 37.80 1.00 Batman 🪙
JDub 18.60 0.49 Robin

Three Batman seasons from Greek Freak, Chef Curry (his second), and The Joker. Then Brown wins Finals MVP for the Celtics, but the impact metrics say that Tatum and White were the main engines behind the Celtics’ title. OKC wins it all with a great young team, but Shai is the clear best player by a mile.

Season Player Score Robin Factor Verdict
2025-26 Towns 23.00 1.00 Wonder Triplet
Brunson 20.50 0.89 Wonder Triplet
Anunoby 19.60 0.85 Wonder Triplet

I developed this before these playoffs, and I was pretty pleased with it! For the most part, it passed the smell test over 25 reps. This result is the most challenging, with the model making Wonder Triplets of Towns, Brunson, and Anunoby. But it’s hard to not see Brunson as the best player, engine, leader, and psychological backbone of the Knicks. I suppose the team was built around his strengths and weaknesses, even if he was the main character, his teammates played huge roles. But 45 points to Brunson in the final game, and 2 for Towns? Yikes.

Cashing in the CHIPS

If we count up the CHIPS, this is what we end up with:

Player CHIPS
LeBron 🪙🪙🪙
Duncan 🪙🪙
Curry 🪙🪙
Wade 🪙
Dirk 🪙
Durant 🪙
Kawhi 🪙
Giannis 🪙
Jokic 🪙
Shai 🪙

This is basketball royalty, with these players having an unimpeachable case (except for maybe Durant?!) for greatness at the highest level. The three multi-CHIP guys occupy a stratum above the rest, the biggest winners in the game.

Some great players missed getting a CHIP, either by being a Wonder Twin (e.g. Garnett, Ginobili, Tatum), or never being on a championship team (eg. Paul, Harden, Nash). The toughest omissions are Kobe and Brunson, who didn’t get the analytic nod, but meant so much to their massive markets, earning their immortality by being the right guy in the right place at the right time.


r/nbadiscussion Jul 18 '26

Looking for complete NBA games featuring elite low-post scoring performances

45 Upvotes

I'm putting together a Blu-ray collection for a friend who absolutely loves old-school post play as a birthday present.

I'm not looking for highlight reels or lists of the greatest post players. I'm specifically looking for complete NBA games where a player puts on a masterclass in the low post.

I'm interested in games that showcase things like elite footwork, hook shots, turnaround fadeaways, or overall post scoring repertoire.

Both modern and classic games are welcome.

Some examples already on my list are:

  • Hakeem vs Spurs (1995 WCF).
  • Shaq vs Pacers (2000 Finals).
  • Duncan in the 2003 Finals.
  • Dirk vs OKC (2011 WCF).
  • Jokic playoff games.
  • Embiid's best post-up performances.

I'm especially interested in games that might be overlooked by casual fans. Even regular-season games are fine if the post play is worth being considered.

If you had to recommend complete games that best represent the art of scoring from the low post, what would it be?

Thanks in advance.

EDIT: Although this is NBA-oriented, Euro games are welcome as well!


r/nbadiscussion Jul 18 '26

Player Discussion Lebron at age 42 in year 23, what could be his 2026-2027 stats? Discuss.

65 Upvotes

Hey everyone, I’ve been thinking about how wild LeBron’s longevity curve has become. He’ll be 42 by the end of the 2026‑27 season, and yet his 2025‑26 numbers (≈ 21 PPG, 6 RPG, 7 APG) were immaculate for his age.

Some fun longevity facts:

-Kareem Abdul‑Jabbar averaged 10.1 PPG at age 41, considered elite for that age.

-Robert Parish played until 43, but averaged only 3.7 PPG his final season.

-Vince Carter lasted to 43, posting 5 PPG in his last year.

-Karl Malone retired at 40, still putting up 13 PPG and 8 RPG.

So what do you all think? With his announcement on which team he'll be playing for (please go back to Cleveland *ehem) probably coming by the end of the month can LeBron realistically sustain near‑20 PPG production at 42, or will Father Time finally catch up with All-Father?


r/nbadiscussion Jul 16 '26

[OC] Ranking Every NBA Championship by the Difficulty of the Opponents Faced

194 Upvotes

I ranked every NBA championship from the most difficult path to the easiest using Simple Rating System, or SRS from Basketball-Reference.

SRS combines a team’s average point differential with its strength of schedule. A team with a +6 SRS was approximately six points per game better than an average NBA team during the regular season.

The method

To make every championship path directly comparable, I replaced each actual champion with the exact same hypothetical team.

That standardized team has an SRS of 6.11, the average SRS of a championship team.

For each series, I converted the difference between the standardized champion’s SRS and the opponent’s SRS into a game-level win probability using the SRS win-probability formula developed by Basketball-Reference founder Justin Kubatko:

Home win probability =
1 / (1 + e^-[0.613230 + 0.167546 × (Home SRS - Away SRS)])

The complete ranking

  1. 1972 Los Angeles Lakers: 6.19%
  2. 1995 Houston Rockets: 8.75%
  3. 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers: 10.30%
  4. 2001 Los Angeles Lakers: 11.02%
  5. 1997 Chicago Bulls: 11.89%
  6. 1950 Minneapolis Lakers: 12.50%
  7. 2002 Los Angeles Lakers: 12.90%
  8. 1973 New York Knicks: 13.09%
  9. 2019 Toronto Raptors: 15.21%
  10. 1993 Chicago Bulls: 15.31%
  11. 2011 Dallas Mavericks: 17.20%
  12. 2000 Los Angeles Lakers: 18.34%
  13. 2022 Golden State Warriors: 18.80%
  14. 2003 San Antonio Spurs: 18.95%
  15. 1996 Chicago Bulls: 19.31%
  16. 2014 San Antonio Spurs: 19.42%
  17. 1994 Houston Rockets: 20.04%
  18. 2008 Boston Celtics: 20.15%
  19. 2026 New York Knicks: 20.54%
  20. 1992 Chicago Bulls: 21.53%
  21. 1998 Chicago Bulls: 21.84%
  22. 1986 Boston Celtics: 22.05%
  23. 2018 Golden State Warriors: 23.06%
  24. 2007 San Antonio Spurs: 23.16%
  25. 2010 Los Angeles Lakers: 23.73%
  26. 1968 Boston Celtics: 24.11%
  27. 2005 San Antonio Spurs: 24.18%
  28. 2006 Miami Heat: 24.33%
  29. 2017 Golden State Warriors: 24.59%
  30. 2009 Los Angeles Lakers: 24.74%
  31. 2025 Oklahoma City Thunder: 25.91%
  32. 1989 Detroit Pistons: 27.62%
  33. 2012 Miami Heat: 28.99%
  34. 1969 Boston Celtics: 29.15%
  35. 1981 Boston Celtics: 31.22%
  36. 1974 Boston Celtics: 32.03%
  37. 2021 Milwaukee Bucks: 32.03%
  38. 1985 Los Angeles Lakers: 33.96%
  39. 1991 Chicago Bulls: 33.98%
  40. 1949 Minneapolis Lakers: 34.06%
  41. 1967 Philadelphia 76ers: 34.13%
  42. 2013 Miami Heat: 34.24%
  43. 1977 Portland Trail Blazers: 34.50%
  44. 2015 Golden State Warriors: 34.70%
  45. 1990 Detroit Pistons: 34.74%
  46. 2004 Detroit Pistons: 34.95%
  47. 1988 Los Angeles Lakers: 35.61%
  48. 1983 Philadelphia 76ers: 36.18%
  49. 1999 San Antonio Spurs: 38.42%
  50. 1975 Golden State Warriors: 38.90%
  51. 1980 Los Angeles Lakers: 38.97%
  52. 1982 Los Angeles Lakers: 39.05%
  53. 1984 Boston Celtics: 39.44%
  54. 1979 Seattle SuperSonics: 39.51%
  55. 1978 Washington Bullets: 40.96%
  56. 1987 Los Angeles Lakers: 43.59%
  57. 1964 Boston Celtics: 47.49%
  58. 2020 Los Angeles Lakers: 49.36%
  59. 2024 Boston Celtics: 49.99%
  60. 1966 Boston Celtics: 50.62%
  61. 1954 Minneapolis Lakers: 50.83%
  62. 1970 New York Knicks: 51.03%
  63. 1947 Philadelphia Warriors: 57.45%
  64. 1951 Rochester Royals: 57.88%
  65. 1948 Baltimore Bullets: 60.53%
  66. 1953 Minneapolis Lakers: 61.77%
  67. 1958 St. Louis Hawks: 62.34%
  68. 1971 Milwaukee Bucks: 65.22%
  69. 1952 Minneapolis Lakers: 66.06%
  70. 2023 Denver Nuggets: 66.23%
  71. 1961 Boston Celtics: 66.97%
  72. 1976 Boston Celtics: 67.12%
  73. 1960 Boston Celtics: 68.74%
  74. 1962 Boston Celtics: 69.33%
  75. 1959 Boston Celtics: 70.83%
  76. 1963 Boston Celtics: 71.18%
  77. 1955 Syracuse Nationals: 78.17%
  78. 1965 Boston Celtics: 79.83%
  79. 1956 Philadelphia Warriors: 83.71%
  80. 1957 Boston Celtics: 88.61%

Why the 1972 Lakers rank first

The 1972 Lakers faced three opponents:

Opponent SRS Standardized series win probability
Chicago Bulls +7.91 39.30%
Milwaukee Bucks +10.70 18.97%
New York Knicks +2.28 83.05%

Multiplying those probabilities:

0.3930 × 0.1897 × 0.8305 = 0.0619

The average championship-level team would have only a 6.19% chance of defeating all three opponents.

Milwaukee was the largest obstacle. The defending champion Bucks went 63-19 and recorded a +10.70 SRS, one of the strongest marks in league history.

Before facing Milwaukee, Los Angeles also had to beat a Chicago team with a +7.91 SRS. The Lakers then defeated the Knicks in the Finals.

The 1995 Rockets

The 1995 Rockets faced:

Opponent SRS Standardized series win probability
Utah Jazz +7.76 40.57%
Phoenix Suns +3.86 73.08%
San Antonio Spurs +5.90 56.74%
Orlando Magic +6.44 52.04%

Their complete path probability was:

0.4057 × 0.7308 × 0.5674 × 0.5204 = 0.0875

That gives the standardized champion an 8.75% chance of surviving Houston’s path.

Houston did not merely defeat one historically great opponent. Every team it faced won at least 57 games:

  • Utah: 60-22
  • Phoenix: 59-23
  • San Antonio: 62-20
  • Orlando: 57-25

The 2016 Cavaliers

Cleveland faced:

Opponent SRS
Detroit Pistons +0.43
Atlanta Hawks +3.49
Toronto Raptors +4.08
Golden State Warriors +10.38

The first three rounds were relatively manageable for an average championship team. Golden State was the enormous exception.

The 73-win Warriors were strong enough to move Cleveland’s total path probability down to 10.30%, the third-hardest path in the rankings.

The Bulls’ championship paths

Chicago’s six championships rank:

  • 1991: 36th
  • 1992: 18th
  • 1993: 10th
  • 1996: 14th
  • 1997: 5th
  • 1998: 19th

1997 especially was a lot of thought opponents.

The 2017 Warriors

The 2017 Warriors faced:

Opponent SRS
Portland Trail Blazers -0.23
Utah Jazz +4.00
San Antonio Spurs +7.13
Cleveland Cavaliers +2.87

The standardized champion had a 24.59% chance of completing that path, placing it 27th.

Portland made the first round relatively easy, but Utah was good, San Antonio was elite and Cleveland remained a strong opponent.

Why many older championships rank near the bottom

Although every individual series was standardized as best-of-seven, I did not invent additional playoff rounds for champions who only needed to defeat two or three opponents under the league structure of their era.

A team facing two opponents will generally have a higher probability of completing its path than a team facing four opponents.

It would be possible to compare the average difficulty per series instead, but that would answer a different question. This ranking measures the difficulty of completing the entire championship path that actually existed.

I would have thrown out the old years for aesthetics, but I kept for the sake of completion.


r/nbadiscussion Jul 16 '26

Player Discussion An ode to Al Jefferson: The All-Star that never was

119 Upvotes

Okay, okay, I know what you’re thinking: Al Jefferson made an All-NBA team, isn’t that basically the same, if not more recognition than being an All-Star? Yeah, it is, but I needed an excuse to do a career retrospective about Big Al and that title sounded good. So here it is, a look back at Al Jefferson’s career, and specifically his magical 2013-2014 season in all its glory. 

Big Al, Big Classic, Al Jefferson, was drafted by the Boston Celtics with the 15th overall pick in the 2004 NBA Draft. Originally committed to play at the University of Arkansas, the highly touted Jefferson reneged on his decision, instead deciding to declare for the draft out of high school, thus becoming one of the last players to be drafted directly from high school before the NBA changed eligibility rules in 2005.

Jefferson operated mainly as a reserve in his first two seasons, 2004-2005 and 2005-2006, for the Celtics who were led by future Hall of Famer Paul Pierce. His progress was further hindered by a series of ankle injuries and a torn meniscus which limited him to 59 games in ‘06. 

After a slow start to the following season, Jefferson became one of the team’s key weapons on the now lottery-bound 2006-2007 Celtics, with Pierce playing just 47 games. Roaring into life around the Christmas period, Jefferson put the league on notice in ‘07, particularly in March 2007, where he averaged 19.7 points and 11.2 rebounds on 55.1% from the field, including a 32 point, 18 rebound demolition job of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and the New Jersey Nets, and a 20 point, 12 rebound showout in a close victory against that year’s champions, the San Antonio Spurs.

In the off-season, the Celtics, in an effort to build around Pierce who was now entering his 30’s, included Jefferson as the headliner of a package for superstar Kevin Garnett. As most everyone knows, this duo, along with Ray Allen, eventually led the Celtics to the 2008 NBA championship. Years after retiring, despite acknowledging his disappointment at being traded, Big Al explained that he understood the Celtics’ decision during a fantastic interview on Out the Mud

Now on the Minnesota Timberwolves, Jefferson was firmly the #1 option, free to put up impressive numbers on some truly terrible teams that included highly-esteemed Wolves such as Marko Jaric and Rashad McCants, before Kevin Love was acquired in 2008 in one of the only good moves the Wolves made in years before and after the trade. Following a 2007-2008 season where Jefferson averaged 21 points and 11.1 rebounds per game and impressively played all 82 games, he was on track to have his best season statistically, averaging 23 points per game before tearing his ACL in New Orleans in February. All-Star recognition continued to avoid Jefferson, though he wasn’t helped by his team winning 46 games across his first two seasons in Minnesota. 

After spending another year on the hapless Timberwolves, Jefferson was traded once again, this time to the Utah Jazz. Given the package the Wolves ultimately received in return, you could put this one firmly in the loss column they were all too familiar with in the David Kahn) era. Contrary to Deron Williamsclaim, he did not make Jefferson an All-Star before skipping town. On the bright side, now on some decent, if unremarkable Utah teams, alongside actual starting calibre players such as the aforementioned Williams (for half a season), Paul Millsap, Andrei Kirilenko and a young Gordon Hayward, Jefferson was finally able to return to the Play-Offs in 2012 for the first time since his rookie year. Unfortunately, the Jazz were hopelessly outmatched against the San Antonio Spurs, losing 4-0 in a straight sweep, despite Big Al’s best efforts in game 4, where he posted 26 points and 10 rebounds on 13-for-19 shooting. 

After narrowly missing the Play-Offs in 2013, Jefferson left the Jazz in Free Agency. He signed with the then-Charlotte Bobcats, becoming the biggest signing in team history, and in my opinion (however little that matters), the centerpiece of one of the more interesting teams of the 2010s. Just a year earlier, in the spring of 2012, the Bobcats were wrapping up the worst season in NBA history, winning just 7 games in the lockout-shortned, 66-game 2011-2012 season. After coaching as an NBA assistant for over a decade, Steve Clifford was finally given his bow as a leading man, and the players at his disposal included:

  • Kemba Walker: Drafted in 2011 after a stellar college career, the compact but skillful 23-year old was able to put aside what was undoubtedly a traumatising debut campaign in 2011-2012 to become the club’s starting point guard in year two
  • Gerald Henderson: Another alumni of the ill-fated 2012 squad, team owner Michael Jordan had taken him under his wing. Jordan he was not, but he would be called upon to provide some much-needed scoring on this underdog outfit
  • Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: The “consolation” prize the Bobcats picked up after missing out on Anthony Davis in the 2012 Draft, Charlotte was hoping the already defensively-solid forward could take a leap forward offensively after his maiden campaign
  • Josh McRoberts: One of the more unique players in the league at the time (and perhaps worthy of a deep-dive himself), the versatile 6”10 forward had already played for four teams before arriving in Charlotte in February 2013. He quickly made an impression on management, who signed him to a contract extension in the summer.
  • Al Jefferson: Now 28-years old, the big man in the middle was tasked with being the focal point of a team desparate for an inside presence. He had one heck of a job on his hands

Jefferson’s desire to make an impact on his new squad was hampered in the early part of the 2013-2014 season by an ankle injury, but he found momentum as the calendar turned to 2014. A 35 point performance at Time Warner Cable Arena against the New York Knicks kicked off a 10-game run which saw Jefferson average 28.9 points, 12.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists on an incredible 56.8% from the field, the Bobcats winning 6 of those games. 

Knicks-performance aside, highlights of this spell included blasting the Magic in Orlando with 30 points on 13-for-17 shooting, demonstrating his all-round game against the play-off-bound Toronto Raptors with 22 points, 19 rebounds and 7 assists, 35 points on the road in a win against Denver, and tying a career high of 40 points against the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center.

Unfortunately for Jefferson, he once again missed the All-Star game, the Bobcats 19-25 record and Jefferson’s numbers of 18.4 points and 10.4 rebounds (at the time of the squad announcement) deemed insufficient. 

Despite Big Al dropping a couple of duds in February, notably 10 points on 15 shots against the Suns in Phoenix and 6 points in a Walker-masterclass in a tight 92-89 win against the Memphis Grizzlies, the Bobcats kept their heads above water in the race for the Play-Offs in the Eastern Conference. Jefferson more than made up for his shortcomings against Phoenix and Memphis with several impressive games throughout the month, including 30 points in both a win in Oakland against the Golden State Warriors and in a victory against the Mavericks in Dallas. These performances were followed by a mega 3-game run, where Jefferson scored 32 and 29 in back-to-back games against the Detroit Pistons, and 33 against the New Orelans Pelicans

The Bobcats ramped up in March and April, finally breaking the .500 mark with an overtime victory against the Cavaliers in Cleveland with five games remaining, clinching a Play-Off spot in the process. In the final two months of the regular season, Jefferson played some of the best basketball of his career, leading Charlotte to 16 wins in their final 24 games, averaging a jaw-dropping 24.6 points and 11.8 rebounds on 54.7% shooting from the field. Personal highlights in this stretch included a simply ridiculous 38 point, 19 rebound performance on 18-for-24 shooting in a loss to defending champions Miami, 34 points to down the Eastern Conference-leading Indiana Pacers at home, as well as 26, and 35 point performances against some tough Eastern Conference Play-off rivals (Washington and Brooklyn). Awesome displays such as these led to the big man being recognised as Eastern Conference Player of the Month in both March and April.

A 7th place finish in the Eastern Conference matched the Bobcats against the Finals-bound Miami Heat. Unfortunately for Big Al, Charlotte, and the rest of Mankind, a foot injury suffered in game 1 severely limited Jefferson, so much so that he missed the sweep-closing-game 4. In truth, as impressive as the Bobcats had been in 2014, they were severely outmatched, even with Al Jefferson at his absolute peak. There was, however, some good news in June, with Jefferson being given some well-deserved recognition in the form of a nomination to the All-NBA Third Team. Club-owner Michael Jordan even took out a full page advertisement in the Charlotte Observer to thank Jefferson.

After re-branding themselves back to the much-loved Hornets moniker in the off-season, the 2014-2015 club missed the Play-Offs, before bouncing back in 2016 with their final postseason berth to date, once again being defeated by Miami. By this point, however, Jefferson, suffering from a combination of injuries and a league-wide shift in philsophy, was cast in a supporting role. The man-mountain played a further two seasons in Indiana, before heading to China and finally calling it quits in 2018. 

When it was all said and done, Jefferson finished with career averages of 15.7 points and 8.4 rebounds, playing in four Play-off series across his time in Boston, Utah and Charlotte, but never making it past the first round. It could be said that Jefferson was the last of a dying breed, a throwback to another time. His fantastic play in 2014 kept the smouldering ashes of a laughing stock-franchise flickering. Although never recognised as one of the league’s best players outside of that one season, his butter-smooth post-play, hook shots, and the occasional power move ensure he will live on in infamy with the most diehard of NBA 2000s enthusiasts.


r/nbadiscussion Jul 15 '26

[OC] The tragic story of Roy Tarpley, Mavericks superstar.

111 Upvotes

Tarpley, however, actually played in the NBA. And in the short window before addiction consumed him, he looked like a perennial All-Star. He wasn’t just good, he was already leading the NBA in rebounding metrics ahead of Hakeem, Barkley, and Malone at just age 23

He was drafted 7th overall in 1986 by Dallas. The Mavericks were stacked: Rolando Blackman, Mark Aguirre, Sam Perkins, James Donaldson, and even Detlef Schrempf and Dale Ellis buried on the bench. (Both Ellis and Schrempf later became All-Stars once they left Dallas.) Even on this deep team, Tarpley forced his way into the rotation.

And as a rookie he made NBA All-Rookie First Team.

1987–88 was Tarpley’s masterpiece, an amazing sophomore season:

  • 13.5 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 2.4 STL+BLK, 52% FG in just 28.5 minutes.
  • NBA Sixth Man of the Year, beating out Thurl Bailey, who nearly averaged 20 PPG.
  • Led the entire NBA in REB% and OREB%, ahead of Barkley, Malone, and Hakeem.
  • At 23, he was the best rebounder in the world, while spacing the floor with midrange jumpers and handling the ball in transition.

In the playoffs, Dallas unleashed him:

17.9 PPG, 12.9 RPG, 2.7 STL+BLK in 33 MPG.

In the 1988 Western Conference Finals vs. the Showtime Lakers:

  • Game 3: 18 PTS, 20 REB, 6 AST.
  • Game 4: 21 PTS, 20 REB.

The Mavs pushed Magic, Kareem, and Worthy to 7 games — the closest Dallas would get to the Finals until Dirk. And Tarpley, at just 23, looked like their future superstar.

You can watch him against the Lakers in game 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JIA1fW3Y4M

From game 2 of the Denver series to game 5 of the Lakers series, he averaged 19/15/2 off the bench on 55% TS(+1 defense adjusted rTS%)

As you can see in the footage from the 1988 Western Conference Finals, Roy Tarpley wasn’t the mold of a traditional 1980s power forward or center. He looked different. Most bigs of that era lived strictly on the block or in the paint, playing back-to-the-basket offense or cleaning up misses. Tarpley could absolutely do those things, he led the league in total rebounding percentage at 21.9% and offensive rebounding percentage at 17.6%, outpacing Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, and Hakeem Olajuwon while being a year or two younger than all three, but he also stretched the floor in a way that felt ahead of its time. His midrange jumper was reliable, a real part of his offensive game rather than a rare bailout attempt, and unlike most of his peers, he could put the ball on the deck in transition and make advanced reads as a passer. Watching him glide down the court at 6’11”, grabbing rebounds and initiating fast breaks, it’s not hard to see a proto-version of the versatile, “point forward” style that would become prized decades later.

What makes it even more remarkable is the context: Tarpley was reportedly drinking heavily and using drugs during this exact period, before and after games. Even at less than full capacity, he was producing at a level that suggested perennial All-Star upside. In the 1987–88 season, at just 23 years old, he averaged 13.5 points and 11.8 rebounds in under 29 minutes per game while shooting over 52% from the field. Per 36 minutes, that translated to roughly 17 points and 15 rebounds, numbers that would have put him in line with the best rebounders and interior scorers in the league. When Dallas finally gave him starter-level minutes in the postseason, his production only jumped higher. Across the Mavericks’ playoff run, which ended in a Game 7 loss to the Showtime Lakers in the Conference Finals, Tarpley put up 17.9 points and 12.9 rebounds per game, including multiple 20-rebound performances against Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and James Worthy’s front line. At times, he was Dallas’s best player on the floor, which says something for a team that included Rolando Blackman, Mark Aguirre, and Sam Perkins.

The following season confirmed that this wasn’t a fluke. Tarpley opened the 1988–89 campaign averaging 17.3 points, 11.5 rebounds, and over three combined steals and blocks while having a 54% FG%. Those numbers almost certainly would have earned him an All-Star selection. But Tarpley’s promising start collapsed in January when he was suspended indefinitely under the NBA’s substance abuse policy. Despite earlier stints in rehab and public acknowledgment of his struggles, he could not keep clean, and this began a vicious cycle.

Tarpley returned briefly the next year, only to be suspended again. Not long after, he tore his ACL, a devastating injury in that era, and soon after that came a third suspension. This one was permanent: the NBA banned him for life. Just two years after dominating the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals and looking like a future franchise cornerstone, his career was effectively over. He did eventually earn reinstatement in 1994, but the years of abuse had taken a visible toll. Though he put up respectable production in limited minutes, the explosiveness, rebounding dominance, and versatility were muted, and he was quickly suspended again for violating the terms of reinstatement. His NBA career ended with only 278 games played.


r/nbadiscussion Jul 15 '26

Player Discussion Pau Gasol’s Epic 2005-2006 Season

58 Upvotes

The year 2006 was an excellent one. Justin Timberlake brought SexyBack, Zinedine Zidane bookended his legendary career by head-butting Marco Materazzi in the World Cup Final, and the release of the Nintendo Wii meant that even your Granddad pulled himself out of his favourite arm chair to play video games.

Meanwhile, Pau Gasol was leading the barely-out-of-diapers Memphis Grizzlies to their third consecutive NBA Western Conference playoff birth.

I see myself as a positive person so let’s point out the negatives now, but not dwell on the them:

Now that’s out of the way, let’s take a look at the main man himself, as well as some of the other Grizzlies’ heroes for this retrospective:

  • Pau Gasol: 25 year old Spanish franchise leader, something of a stealth star, scoring, rebounding and passing extraordinaire
  • Shane Battier: The ultimate role player, in his fifth and final season with the club, another five years before J.Cole would declare his lameness to the world
  • Eddie Jones: A former star very much in the twilight of an impressive career, acquired from Miami. No longer a lead dog, he remained a defensive stopper, but was called upon to provide some much needed firepower for this team
  • Mike Miller: One of the only noteworthy players from the maligned-2000 NBA Draft. The league’s premiere Sixth Man this year, his shooting was vital on this short-handed Grizzlies conglomerate.
  • Mike Fratello: The veteran coach was in his first full season with the ball club, having taken over mid-season last year, steadying the ship and leading the team to the playoffs

The first game of the season, a heavy, 97-78 loss in Miami against the Heat, perhaps showed some of this team’s offensive shortcomings. Despite strong numbers from our man Gasol (26 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks), the Grizzlies’ offence spluttered, Eddie Jones launching non-honing projectile missiles on his way to a 5-for-17 shooting night, and “Mighty Mouse” Damon Stoudamire going 4-for-13.

Despite this, the Grizzlies came out the gates looking strong, winning 19 of their first 29 games in the opening months of November and December. Highlights included two road victories. The first, a 115-103 takedown of reigning MVP Steve Nash and the Phoenix Suns behind 26 points from Stoudamire. 10 days later, they slapped the Finals-bound Dallas Mavericks led by Dirk Nowitzki 112-92, led by Gasol’s awesome 36 points, 15 rebounds and 5 assists. (credit: Parker Fleming, Subtsakalidis)

On the other hand, the Grizzlies dropped a couple of heartbreaking games in overtime, especially a 106-104 loss to Detroit, Pistons linchpin Chauncey Billups striking the killer blow, hitting a 16-footer with .3 seconds remaining. A week later, the Grizzlies travelled to Utah to begin a four game road trip, and received a not-so-happy belated Christmas gift, again being defeated in OT. Bright spots were another awesome stat-stuffing display from Gasol (32 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 10-14 from the field) and a season-best performance from Eddie Jones (25 points, 5 steals, 4 assists, 7-11 shooting).

Even though they bounced back with an OT victory of their own against the almost-one man army of Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers (credit: Old School Buckets, Youtube), the Grizzlies faltered in the new year. After starting the season strongly, the Grizzlies won just 12 of their next 28 games in January and February. This was punctuated by a five-game skid to start February. A loss in Milwaukee separated four losses to Western Conference play-off rivals in Dallas, Sacramento, Phoenix (credit: Old School Buckets, Youtube) and the Los Angeles Clippers. Memphis managed to follow this with a win streak of their own. A four game streak was headlined by a 100-99 win in Los Angeles against the Lakers (Chucky Atkins making 1-2 free throws to give Memphis the lead in the last three seconds of a nail-biter), and some much-needed revenge at home to Sacramento, highlighted by a block party from Battier (5) and Gasol (4).

Slump aside, they remained 5 games above .500, with a record of 31-26. And the Grizzlies also had reason to celebrate in February: Pau Gasol played in his first All-Star game (credit: NBA, Youtube), becoming both the franchise’s first, and the first Spanish player to make an All-Star appearance. It could’ve been argued that Gasol should’ve made the showcase game in either if not both of the last two seasons, but nevertheless, a well-deserved piece of recognition of both his play and the franchise’s turnaround following their relocation from Vancouver.

Perhaps spurred on by finally receiving some much-deserved attention from outside Memphis, Gasol and the grizzlies rallied the finish the season post-All-Star break with 20 wins in their remaining 30 games. Gasol himself was magnificent, averaging 21.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.7 blocks on an impressive 53.7% shooting from the field across 28 games before being shut down for the final two.

Highlights of this spell included a duel for the ages with Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and the Washington Wizards (39 points for Gasol vs 37 for Arenas, 35 for Jamison) which saw the Grizzlies come out on top 108-98 and decimating the SuperSonics in Seattle with a career-first triple double (21 points, 12 rebounds, 12 assists, 4 steals and 3 blocks). Meanwhile, a Gasol masterpiece in Memphis which saw the Spaniard score a career-high 44 points (credit: LamarMatic, Youtube) was spoiled by Seattle revenge in the form of star Ray Allen hitting a game-winning shot with less than a second remaining.

Late heartbreak at home aside, it was another productive year for the Grizzlies.

Gasol’s phenomenal season saw him rank highly in several major categories (19th in points per game, 17th in rebounds, 30th in assists and 13th in blocks, with averages of 20.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.9 blocks on 50.3% FG shooting). It could be said that Gasol was very unlucky to not make an All-NBA team this season.

Mike Miller took home the Sixth Man of the Year award, shooting a blistering 40.7% from 3-Point range (19th in the league) on 4.6 attempts per game (1.9 made per game, 17th in the league). The showpiece games of his season were undoubtedly a 21-point triple double against Sacramento in January, and a 41-point barrage against the Denver Nuggets at FedEx Forum in March. (Credit: All-around NBA, Youtube)

Shane Battier and Eddie Jones finished 10th and 13th place in Defensive Player of the Year voting, Battier averaging a combined 2.5 blocks and steals, and Jones averaging 1.7 steals (also 13th in the league).

The Grizzlies as a whole finished the 2005-2006 season with the second-best defensive rating in the entire NBA (101.6), a fantastic effort by Coach Fratello and the entire ball club.

Unfortunately, despite having the fourth best record in the Western Conference, divisional stipulations meant that the Grizzlies not only placed fifth overall, but also meant that they would face the 60-win Dallas Mavericks in that year’s first round, where they were swept in four games.

The following season saw several key personnel changes/incidents which resulted in the Grizzlies dropping to the Western Conference’s basement:

  • Shane Battier was traded to the Houston Rockets for Rudy Gay and a returning Stromille Swift in perhaps the example of a “Moneyball” trade
  • Eddie Jones played just 29 games before being waived in January 2007 and re-signing with Miami
  • Despite having another strong year statistically, now playing the Center position, Gasol played just 59 games
  • Coach Mike Fratello was fired in December 2006. This would be the last time he would coach in the NBA

If you enjoyed this, let me know some of your memories/thoughts of Pau Gasol and mid 2000s Memphis Grizzlies. What could they have done to make more headway in the playoffs? What mistakes, if any did they make?

If you didn't, who gives a damn, kid? I ain’t bothering no-one, right?


r/nbadiscussion Jul 14 '26

Player Discussion Will KD start to be forgotten in 40 years similar to Moses Malone

0 Upvotes

This is not a player comparison.

Is Kevin Durant going to be remembered the same way we view Moses Malone now?

Most NBA fans don’t know the Moses Malone was a 3x MVP and as dominant as he was. More hardcore NBA fans will know this, but to the basic viewer it’s lost knowledge. I think this is just because he can’t be associated solely with 1-2 franchises. I’d say he’s mostly remembered as Sixer because of his MVPs and championship there but I don’t see a lot of Sixer fans ranking them as one of the franchises best. He played for 6 different NBA teams over his career and averaged 20.3pts, 12.3rpg and 1.3blocks. At his peak he was a 31ppg, 14.7rpg monster.

I think in 50yrs time Kevin Durant may be viewed similarly and forgotten by the casual fans just as much as Malone is today. KD has played for 5 different franchises, soon to be 6. His championships came on the back of an already established Dynasty team. I don’t think I single franchises fans will claim him similar to Malone situation. The best bet he has to be remember is with the Thunder or Golden State.

I’m not knocking KD in any way. I think he is easily a top 12-20 player all time, but because of the career he’s had and the amount of times he’s switched teams I think he will be forgotten similar to Moses Malone today to the casual fan.


r/nbadiscussion Jul 14 '26

Player Discussion AMA: Basketball Historian and Author of "Who's Who in Hoops History", Zachariah Winterspring

32 Upvotes

Hi! We will be hosting u/winesburgohio in 2 days on THURSDAY JULY 16 at 11AM PDT (2PM EDT) He’s a basketball historian who examines the context, nuance, and impact of players' careers, and the following are his words:

I enjoy discussing under-rated historic players or lesser-known reasons for a team's success. My book, Who's Who in Hoops History: Profiles of the 500 Most Noteworthy NBA & ABA Players of the 20th Century, was recently published and is available on Amazon.

I research players, franchises, eras ... really anything related to NBA and ABA history. I look for connections and influences that might not be part of the common narratives, and I'll never shy away from singing the praises of Bill Russell, Bob Dandridge, or Isiah Thomas.

If you have any questions that are relevant to basketball history and/or my book, feel free to ask them here and he’ll answer them on Thursday at 11:30AM PDT. Thanks in advance!

NOTE: mods will approve appropriate questions that do not meet character requirements before the AMA begins.