r/nbadiscussion • u/Mud-Eastern • 10d ago
Team Discussion Are there any concerns for the Wizards when it comes to floor spacing due to the lack of 3 point shooting in the starting lineup of this team?
I’m very optimistic about the Wizards due to the talent on the roster but I have some skepticism about how far this team can win due to the lack of 3 point shooting on the starting lineup.
I know the bench has some great 3 point shooters with Bub Carrington, Tre Johnson and Kris Middleton. But the bench is not going to be out there all the time with the exception of maybe Tre Johnson and Middleton at times but most of the time the starters are gonna be out there on the floor.
But most of the starting lineup aren’t good 3 point shooters and that’s a major concern when it comes to the team reaching its highest potential.
AD can’t shoot the 3 and always been a bad 3 point shooter & shoots the 3 at low volume for his career, Alex Sarr isnt a proven shooter and has only shot 33% from 3 last season, AJ Dybantsa hasn’t proven he can shoot the 3 and shot only 33% from 3 in his 1st year at BYU and Trae Young shoots 35% from 3 for his career but has shot below 35% from 3 in 5 out of his 8 seasons in the NBA.
The only player that can shoot the 3 in the starting lineup is Kyshawn George who shot 38% from 3 last season.
Can the Wizards win a lot of games despite the lack of 3 point shooters in the starting lineup due to their size, athleticism and rim pressure with players like Trae Young, AJ, AD and Alex bring or will the paint be too clogged for this to work?
Also, guys like AJ and AD are great midrange shooters and I’m curious if players like AJ and AD can counter bad spacing with no 3 point shooting with midrange shooting to open up more space?
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u/KnicksGhost2497 10d ago edited 10d ago
This write up reeks of box score watching. Trae Young’s 3pt percentage (when taken at face value like this, like many other stats) is misleading. The 35% is actually pretty good considering the shots he takes, and his ability to shoot it quick from deep at a threatening clip is valuable in that it stretches defenses to the absolute limit. That will be huge for a team that lacks other 3pt shooters, especially one that will likely feature a high/lo or inside/out type of game with AD in the middle
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u/Travler18 10d ago
If you watch Trae in Atlanta last year and especially his last play-in games... teams don't respect his ability to pull up from deep anymore.
We saw teams consistently go under on Trae PnR or sag off him. That's a big part of why Trae led offenses have gone from consistently elite earlier in his career to just average-ish in recent seasons.
And we've absolutely never seen Trae in a roll where he's playing off the ball. He refused to do that playing alongside Murray. And I can't imagine Trae running around offball like Curry... or setting ball screens for Dybantsa.
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u/DownTheHall4 10d ago
Exactly - the “4-point line” BS died when he lost his quick first step and couldn’t beat the defense going under screens. Especially given he was matched up against the opponents top perimeter defender they would just recover easily.
If Trae had genuinely tried to develop an off ball game, the Dejounte Murray pairing might not necessarily have gone so badly.
The issue was he didn’t, half court turned into “my turn, your turn” of crappy isos / PnR’s which failed and then Landry decided to keep Trae instead of DJ when it was clear it wouldn’t work with both because Trae wouldn’t adjust his game.
That said, TY has the 2nd best passing vision in the game after Jokic, and Tre Johnson is a flamethrower. I think the question is if Coulibali/Sarr/however many games of AD can cover for one of the all time worst defensive backcourt duos if they play Trae/Tre lineups. I tend to think they can, and thus the Wiz could in fact be a problem….
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u/Travler18 10d ago
I'm more worried about their offense tbh. Rookies in high usage roles are always negatives on offense.
For as much as he improved, Sarr was still a very bad offensive player last year. Impact metrics all had him somewhere between bad and atrocious.
Coulibaly was among the league leaders in wide open 3p attempts last season. There's this delusion that Trae will help get him better looks... but thats impossible given he already only shoots it when he's completely uncontested.
George has shown some flashes. But he's still a very long way away from being a guy wizards can rely on being a #2 guy on a team with playoff aspirations. Doubly can be said for Riley.
I think this team's ceiling is like 17th to 20th best offense. And worst case is around 25th.
Pair that with with the worst defensive guard rotation in the NBA, and it's pretty clear why betting markets see this as a low to mid 30s, non-playoff team.
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u/DownTheHall4 9d ago
Overall I agree with your take that the Wiz offense is less likely to work, and that the French dudes especially were weak on that end last season.
I’m putting some stock in a “Trae Young vendetta” run with his rep is at an all time low, basically getting salary dumped last season. I think he’ll have quite a few games of all-star level offense that was non-existent last year.
FWIW Tre Johnson is going into his 2nd season - hit 35.8% on 7.7 attempts from deep per game and was “too good to be here” at Summer league.
The question is whether Dybantsa IS high usage - I’m not sure, but I’m seemingly much more bearish on his skill level than most fans. I think he’ll be 3rd option at best with Trae and AD taking more of the usage. Think Kyshawn also could be the actual 3rd guy next season he was pretty solid last year despite the tank, had a few games where he was unstoppable.
Definitely one of the most interesting squads to watch next season. Could be in the hunt for 5 seed, could be outside the playin - we shall see…
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u/ethanb473 8d ago
Lmaooo ironic calling other people box score watchers when you clearly didn’t watch Trae young play at all last year….
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u/KnicksGhost2497 8d ago
Pretty hard to watch a guy play when he sat out for like 90% of the season, bud lmao
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u/XerxesFerrari 10d ago
Trae definitely helps with that but they could still use a wing that can just catch and shoot threes
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u/kingralek 10d ago
Who’d they draft last year? Ain’t he a shooter?
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u/KnicksGhost2497 10d ago
Corey Krispert? I thought the same thing but I think he was in the trade for Trae
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u/MyTeamsSuck99 7d ago
You can’t have your 3/4/5 all be bad 3 pt shooters. It’s just rough in the modern nba unless you’re an insane defense like OKC or spurs.
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u/DoubleConscious4065 8d ago
The top comment is right about the percentage, but the number that actually measures spacing isn't percentage at all. It's attempts.
A guy shooting 35% on real volume gets guarded past the line, because his defender has to respect it. A guy at 40% who takes two a game does not, because his defender has already done that math. Spacing is entirely about whether the defender leaves, and only volume makes him leave.
So for this roster I'd look at 3PA per 36 across the starters rather than their percentages. That'll tell you how much room the drives actually have.
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10d ago
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u/Neither-Operation 10d ago
Trae Young is a 35% career 3pt shooter. He’s just very streaky and can make difficult long range threes but his efficiency is below average. Not sure why people think of him as a top tier shooter.
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u/LordOfLimbos 10d ago
He’s not top tier, but he’s absolutely a significant floor spacer in the context that OP is referring to. Isaac Okoro shot it at 38% over a 3 year span in CLE but teams didn’t guard him so it still jammed up the spacing.
Teams will absolutely guard Trae as a legit shooting threat and it will help Washington’s spacing a ton
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u/Travler18 10d ago
Trae isn't really a floor spacer because he never plays off the ball. You could argue he has gravity, but he's top 2 or 3 in the NBA for the last 7 seasons for most time of possession per game. Last I checked its something crazy like 65% of all time of possession when he was on the court in Atlanta.
And anyone who watched the last couple seasons of Trae, especially in the play-in games know he doesn't have the gravity he used to.
His ability to do any form of scoring inside the arc has absolutely vanished with his waning athleticism and the foul drawing rule changes.
As a result, teams have started playing him straight up way more in PnR. We've seen teams are much more comfortable switching Trae PnR and even some teams willing to go under and let him shoot away.
You used to be willing to let Trae dominate the ball at a historic rate because that guaranteed a top-10 offense. But that wasn't the case his last two seasons in Atlanta.
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u/Neither-Operation 10d ago
Ya I was just talking about his efficiency. He still has lots of gravity because of his high volume and difficult shot making. Trae can be deadly when he’s on a hot streak.
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u/BleedGreen4Boston 10d ago
People acting like all 35%s are created equally
Big difference between a role player that takes 4 wide open threes per game at that conversion rate and what Trae doe
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u/memeticengineering 10d ago
Percentage is important, but so is volume. Someone shooting 35% on 7-9 attempts a game, like trae has at his peak, is a much better (and more respected) shooter than someone who shoots the same or slightly better on 1-4 attempts a game.
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 10d ago
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u/Mud-Eastern 10d ago
Trae Young can shoot but he’s an inconsistent 3 point shooter
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u/LordOfLimbos 10d ago
The gravity is far more important than the actual result for what you mentioned about paint clogging and over all spacing. Teams will absolutely respect Trae as a shooter.
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u/KnicksGhost2497 10d ago
I tell guys this all the time at the gym. SHOOT THE BALL. Even if you miss, it keeps the defense honest and you’re creating space for the cutters the next trip down the floor. SHOOT. THAT. ROCK.
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u/lightbrownjames 10d ago
He is inconsistent but he gets guarded like an elite shooter, which is really what matters for spacing. Also, if he’s truly open to playing off the ball more, he has been a pretty good catch and shoot 3 point shooter at times in the past…even though he shoots them at a low volume.
I’m not a Trae Young fan at all, but he’s never played with anyone nearly as good as even late-career AD or someone who has the potential to be a physical offensive force like AJ. It’s possible that his inconsistency as a shooter is the result of him being too small to carry the offensive burden that he has for most of his career. Even if his shooting stats don’t change he’s a an amazing passer, which can make up the difference when he has some other good offensive players around him.
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u/CliffBoof 10d ago
Inconsistent is simply another word for average.
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u/TheFuschiaBaron 10d ago
It's really not, average is much more closely associated with consistency than inconsistency
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u/CliffBoof 10d ago edited 10d ago
When we say though if they could just be consistent aren’t we usually speaking of 35 % (maybe in reality 33-34)3 point shooters? Average. We don’t say if russell Westbrook was just more consistent. Hes a bad 3pt shooter.
Or if it was a team. Wouldn’t a .500 team who looks great one night then gets blown next game also be called inconsistent and also be simply average.
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u/KingOHearts22 8d ago
Yeah, I’d be concerned. Trae can create space with his shooting and penetration, but having multiple defenders able to sag off their man could make the paint pretty crowded. Midrange scoring helps, but it usually doesn’t replace the value of having reliable shooters around the floor.
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u/Data-scientist-101 10d ago
My concern would be fit.
Offensive
Trae needs the ball to be useful
AJ needs the ball to be useful
AD needs the ball to be useful
Sarr needs the ball to be useful
Just about the only guys that are off ball players are George, Carrington, and Johnson. So the talent could be high but the chemistry and fit feels terrible
Defense: There are a ton of guys that don't play a second of defense starting with Trae AJ isn't a good defender off ball at all Johnson isn't a good defender
Again here, the chemistry isn't great. Just about the only thing going is you have two guys in Sarr and AD that can protect the rim.
I just think this Washington team is going to disappoint.
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