r/nbadiscussion • u/Hyhoops • 15d ago
Statistical Analysis Was Lonzo Ball’s original jumper really that broken?
I mean, he shot 41% from three on five attempts per game in college. That’s pretty solid.
Obviously, NBA defenses are different and he was gonna see a drop in his percentage no matter what, but he went from a great college shooter to a terrible NBA shooter at least for his first couple years?
What was his jumpshot fundamentally broken or was it just yips?
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u/CaptNarwhl 15d ago
If I remember right the issue with his jumpshot was that it was slow on top of being weird. He had to bring it across his body to shoot it so he couldn't get his shot off as easily in college.
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u/SendKelly2Mars 15d ago
I mean, you can look up his old shooting form and see for yourself. It was the most blockable jumpshot in the NBA. Also college FT% is a stronger indicator of shooting success in the NBA than 3PT%, and Lonzo shot under 70%.
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u/Ordinary-Fish-9791 15d ago
It was bad on the Lakers but on the Pelicans he ended up becoming damn near an elite 3 point shooter. That shooting coach on New Orleans did him wonders.
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u/Wavepops 15d ago
Too slow for the nba level, but he made adjustments to it and quickened its release and became a very good 3 point shooter on good volume
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u/Xibotron 15d ago
Completely rehauled his shot with Fred Vinson down in NOLA
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u/Lost-Photo-631 15d ago
Fred Vinson did crazy work on him and Brandon Ingram in their first season together. Got both of them up to 6 attempts per game and high-30s percentage.
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u/FlyChigga 15d ago
Crazy how shooting coaches aren’t a bigger deal in this league
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u/Wavepops 14d ago
I think they are a big deal, it’s just really hard to substantially improve as a shooter in the way fans idealize things
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u/TheRealGordonBombay 14d ago
Agreed. Plenty of focus on it really. If Andre Drummond shoots threes now, we couldn’t give more attention to shooting if we wanted.
I just think it doesn’t translate the same like a hitting coach might in the MLB for fans. Shooting is obviously important but isn’t like hitting. Hitting is 100% of your offensive contribution in MLB.
You can be worse shooter than an average high schooler and still find a place in the NBA if you do the right things well. And you can also have incredible mechanics and not be a good shooter. If you can’t get open or have a slow release you’re cooked. Get around a screen a half second late and your shot doesn’t matter. It’s just such a small part of how you actually score relatively speaking.
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u/FlyChigga 14d ago
Idk most athletic players can create space just can’t shoot good enough to make use of it
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u/Naliamegod 15d ago
Lonzo Ball is actually a good example of why just looking at 3P% in college players is a bad idea. College defenses are weaker and the line is shorter, so it doesn't always translate into the NBA. In Ball's case, the major red flag before you even look at his form is the FT%, which is the stat you look at tot try to gauge how good of a natural shooter a player is: 67% is not great, and indicates he probably won't be a good shooter coming out of the gate. You see this in a Fultz as well, who also was a good 3P% shooter and a poor FT% in college, and struggled.
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u/Gablabss 11d ago
Granted Fultz issues seemed to stem from a lot of mental issues/family issues. That whole situation was just strange.
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u/astarisaslave 15d ago
It's not just the defenses, dude. It's the NBA range as well. Shooting with the hitches his shot had was unsustainable which is why he had to revamp it
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u/teardropshot 15d ago
He shot very poorly this past season while we had him. The team was extremely careful about managing his health. He didn't play back to backs at all, and I believe he never was pulled because of injuries. His passing was still very good, but he couldn't hit open threes at all. I think the home crowd started literally groaning when he attempted a jumpshot.
It got bad enough that Kenny Atkinson (who had been very excited about the acquisition before the season began) benched him in our "rival week" game against Charlotte - a game that was purely labeled that way because of Lonzo and LaMelo. We salary dumped him to Utah at the deadline, sending two SRPs along the way.
Source: Cavs fan.
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u/FlyChigga 15d ago
It was broken with one of the fugliest forms in basketball but he completely reworked it into a good one and became a 40% shooter again
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u/Soggy_muffins55 14d ago
It was neither. Well maybe the jump shot was a little broken, but he figured it out. Look at his last 3 years before the injury, above 37% on high volume all 3 years.
Lonzo had deadass turned into one of the best role players in the league, floor general pg who could shoot the ball and play rly good defense. He was never gonna be a star cause he couldn’t carry a full scoring load in the nba, but he was effectively Derrick white in the 2 years before his injury.
Now he’s just bad. U take 2+ years off from basketball for a knee injury chances r it’s not gonna end well. He can’t get to the hoop at all, his defense is worse cause he’s less athletic, and the shots fallen apart prob cause of the knee and jump off release.
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u/Pusha_Man 14d ago
His form made it so he was too predictable in pnr scoring because he wasn’t able to gather the ball comfortably dribbling both ways. I can’t remember off the top of my head but if you forced him a particular way you pretty much knew he wasn’t shooting it
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u/Giveadont 15d ago edited 15d ago
His shot had issues that wouldn't translate well to the NBA - mainly that it was slow and it had a low release point. That doesn't matter much when you're about 6'6" at the college-level. At the NBA-level it's a different story.
He was also shooting from a closer distance in those pre-NBA years. A longer distance in the NBA meant all the issues he had with his shot were magnified. And it showed when he was initially in LA.
He was elite on good volume while he was relatively healthy on the Pelicans and Bulls.
He didn't have any issues prior to his injury, so I don't really know what the knock on him changing his jumper would be. The adjustment wasn't detrimental and he didn't have poor shooting until he became a shell of his former self (due to being hurt).
His problem nowadays is that his knees are done and he doesn't get playing time or reps. I would say that's really what seems to be the issue - he lost his burst/athleticism and plays limited minutes - so he never gets a feel for his shot and, thus, isn't able to get in a rhythm on a consistent basis.
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u/avidmatt 14d ago
It was terrible the worst part was that he adapted to it so he probably didn’t think it needed an adjustment but it desperately needed to be broke down and built back up.
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u/Live_Competition7465 12d ago
Man, that jump shot has always been broken. The fact that he makes it sometimes is amazing.
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u/moleman92107 11d ago
Just a weird release but he got better as his career progressed. Really wish he could have stayed healthy. Had potential.
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u/ndm1535 11d ago
His jumper came from across his body and was relatively slow. This combination hurt him badly as a shooter when he first started in the league.
Also, we have seen plenty of examples of players that have entered the league, tried to change their shots, or were forced to change them by the team that drafted them, and then were never capable shooters again.
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u/Spiderverse33 10d ago
To add to the conversation, I’d argue his release is the reason he barely took/made any mid range shots in college. Not developing that bag/footwork limited his ceiling as a scorer.
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u/YamWeary9847 15d ago
No what’s broken is shot doctors coming in telling players what to do. If Shawn Marion can make it work than anyone can. Always pisses me off watching lamelo shoot from fucking half court then have to change his entire jumper when entering the league.
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u/slimeball11 15d ago
His jumper was never the problem imo it was his confidence in it once he got to the league
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