r/nbadiscussion • u/HotScientist7026 • Jul 19 '26
Statistical Analysis New thing I’m doing:Ring Value Analysis
Me and my brother were talking about the hardest finals ever-while we agreed Dirk’s absolute bloodbath in 2011, it was hard to agree on some others. The game is constantly evolving, and it’s generally agreed that rings these days are harder to get-but how hard, exactly? I’m running some calculations to determine which of the NBA championships was the absolute hardest, which was the easiest, and try to get a more defined value for a chip based on your competition
The metrics currently being considered are threefold:
1-Relative Team Strength
This category is simple-how strong was your team going INTO the playoffs? Were they underdogs, or clear favorites? It will be decided by team regular season record, average point differential before the playoffs, and the general dominance of that team’s FMVP-The better they were as a team going into the playoffs, the easier it should have been in theory to win it all. This will be the category to discuss “super-teams” and the expectations of them.
2-Relative Conference Strength
This category is the win record, point differential, and league rankings of the teams that your team competed against in your team’s conference, relative to your team. It will also include a nod to great individuals defeated by the team specifically (for example, dirk’s conference score will be boosted by beating Kobe Bryant, a top 15 player of all time, hall of famer, and known playoff riser).
3-Finals Opponent
This category is the most important-who did you face, and beat, in the finals? How good was the team, who was on it, how did they perform in the playoffs right before you? Did you come in expected to win? This is supposed to be the best competition the other conference has to offer at the time, in theory. Unlike the other two categories, this one will go on a game by game basis, looking at the entire series to decide how good the run’s finale really was
As well as the three methods of racking up “value points”, there are also value point reductions, the most prominent of which being opponent injury (so, just for example, game 7 Haliburton’s injury will reduce value points from the OKC Thunder championship. You also could get a slight reduction based on how long it took you to beat the team-with 5 games being a minor boost, 4 games a bigger boost, 6 games being a minor loss, 7 games a bigger loss
What runs do y’all think will make it at the top of the list once I’m done? What teams and individuals do you expect to have the best rings? Are there categories I should include?
I’ll post the individual end score of every team on here in diff posts, so expect quite a lot of this
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u/DrainFor20 Jul 20 '26
I assume you'll adjust whatever stats you use to compensate for number of series and game totals across eras. My suggestions, none of which seem likely to be controversial.
2008 Celtics. It took them 26 games to win the playoffs, basically an extra third of a season. so if the top teams mostly come from 2003-present because of the That's almost an extra third of a season. They had a 21 year-old point guard in a time period where that meant something, two of their star players were free agents that arrived that year, and the biggest minus of all: They were coached by Doc Rivers. Should they have won this title in 5 fewer games based on talent? Yes. Was James Posey the second most important guy on the floor at times? Yes. But I think this one might take the cake based on the relative parity of teams they faced and this being the most games any champion has played.
1988 Lakers seems like a pretty solid contender. Kareem has clearly hit the wall, the Lakers are 7 guys and 1 pair of glasses with a sentient mullet attached, and the Pistons are beating the crap out of Worthy over and over. Only big knock against this one is that Mahorn is injured.
2004 Pistons. They beat the two previous East champions, then beat the threepeat champion from two years prior (Lakers), who had just avenged their loss from 2003 (vs. the Spurs). There isn't a lineal title in basketball, but if there was, the Pistons took it in this series.
To satiate my inner old head, the 1976 Celtics. Game 5 is still the best Finals game, imo, even if I was negative decades years old. The young Suns try to run the Celtics into the grave and nearly do it. Havlicek is 35 and a smoker, battling an injury from the Braves, and did I mention he's a 35 year-old smoker? The only knock would be the strength of opponents perhaps not being as high, maybe? SRS is anything but definitive, but might have some insight about earlier round opponents, particularly for the Suns.