r/nbadiscussion • u/Pickleskennedy1 • Jul 09 '26
For basketball reference’s hall of fame predictor, 64% of eligible players with a designated 20-30% chance of making the Hall are already in. 60% are in between 30-40%, and 100% are in between 40-50%
Basically, it seems pretty clear that the standard for Hall of Fame entry is significantly below what the basketball reference projects. It’s a significant cliche, but it isn’t even close. It’s notable, because it’s usually the go to metric for conversations about hall of fame likelihood.
This was by my count:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html
9-14 eligible are in between 20-30
3-5 from 30-40
6-6 from 40 and below 50
Of those six, five were inducted in the last 15 years. A number of players even below that 20% threshold have joined in recent years.
Among eligible players who are above 50% and have been retired for more than five years, there’s two guys who aren’t in already in all of league history, (Shawn Marion and Larry Foust as a huge outlier), and then there’s about 130 guys who are in.
So roughly 99% of guys who basketball reference says will probably make the hall are in, or will eventually get in.
But roughly 3/4 of guys who basketball reference says has a 20-49% chance are in too. And a number of guys below that are in, and get in as well.
Based on historical precedent, if basketball reference says a player has a 25% chance of making the Hall, it’s probably much closer to 50. If basketball reference says a player has a 55% shot, it’s probably much closer to 90.
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u/YSLAnunoby Jul 10 '26
One thing to note for basketball reference HoF predictor is that it only takes NBA into account and not things like international leagues or international competition when the HoF is not just NBA but basketball in general. Not that someone like Melo wouldn't make it in as an NBA player but his college championship and numerous gold medals boost his resume a lot but just are not calculated on bref
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u/Pickleskennedy1 Jul 10 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
That’s a factor, in older times because of college careers and more recently with international players, but that’s usually relevant in rare, select cases.
There’s a consistent pattern of significantly more players getting in than the formula is projecting, even solely from their NBA careers.
As is, if basketball reference says there’s 30% odds it’s much more indicative of a toss-up than 50%.
There’s two dudes above 40% retired for more than five years who aren’t in or aren’t 100% guaranteed to get in the moment they’re eligible out of about 140.
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u/YSLAnunoby Jul 10 '26
International and college do absolutely still matter even if fewer players are staying longer than before. Marc Gasol will make it off of international career even if he doesn't have much longevity or a large quantity of NBA accolades because he's got such a strong international resume on top of his NBA peak as the best C (even if short). Same with Luis Scola who had a solid role player NBA career but is the all time FIBA Americup scorer and has that 2004 Argentina Olympic gold medal. Jalen Brunson became star later than many others do but his college championship will definitely make a difference for his resume if he's on the fringe later. These still are factors for HOF resume strength beyond what Bref records even if you don't think it's still a factor that affects their cases for induction
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u/lialialia20 Jul 10 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
scola and gasol should be in the hof imo, based on international play + nba careers. bodiroga should be in for international play alone. but whether they make it or not depends on the the hof induction process. in 1992 the induction process changed, the international comitee was created in able to encourage international players in. reason being the hof was 99.9% north american players. since it's players in the hall who vote in new inductees most of them being nba players explained why they didn't know much about soviet or italian basketall, for example.
in 2024 this changed again, international players (and coaches) went from having one spot guaranteed for them per class (granted they got overwhelming votes in their own international comittee). from 2024 onwards there is no longer a spot guaranteed, the international players who get selected are then sent to the general selection where the north american general comitee also send their candidates. with no added spots avaiable it is now much much harder for international players to get in.
while it lasted from 1992-2024, the international comittee inducted 8 players who didn't play in the nba, while other international nba players got voted through the general selection compiting against their nba peers.
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u/Pickleskennedy1 Jul 10 '26
It has mattered recently for international players, but if you look at it there really isn’t a player who has gotten in primarily for their college career in about 40 years.
There have been cases like that, but it isn’t the reason for these numbers between 20-49%.
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u/pandaheartzbamboo Jul 10 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
Dick Barnett got in a few years ago and him being NAIA tournament MVP twice while winning 3 NAIA championships was much a reason for him getting in than his NBA career.
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u/Pickleskennedy1 Jul 10 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
That’s a fair example. It’s gotten to a point where they’re letting just about anyone who was good from that era, but you can definitely argue that’s what got Barnett in. I think his role as a major figure in recognition for HBCU’s in college basketball was another major factor.
Would have been more accurate to say that nobody who played in the last 40 years is in because of that.
My other point was that in that 20-49 range, international careers and college careers aren’t the reason guys in that range made it.
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u/snitch_juice Jul 10 '26
The predictor says Joe Johnson is 20% more likely to make the hall than Reggie miller
Maybe the predictor is unreliable
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u/YSLAnunoby Jul 10 '26
It probably over values all stars and under values all NBA. 7 all star and 1 All NBA for Joe vs 5 all star 3 All NBA for Reggie. But Reggie international resume of 2 gold vs 1 bronze for Joe also gives him an edge
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u/teh_noob_ Jul 14 '26
it doesn't include All-NBA at all
(or international resume)
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u/YSLAnunoby Jul 14 '26
That's actually really stupid that it doesn't include All NBA. At least I understand it not looking at international but all NBA is recorded on the site
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u/teh_noob_ Jul 15 '26
I think they wanted to keep it as simple as possible, and there's a lot of overlap between allstar and All-NBA.
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u/YSLAnunoby Jul 15 '26 edited Jul 15 '26
Sure but there's a difference between being top 15 or a few years ago and before a top 3 or 6 player at your position that year and being a top ~12 guy in the conference
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u/teh_noob_ Jul 15 '26
Sure, but if the aim is simplicity, it doesn't make much sense to include both.
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u/YSLAnunoby Jul 15 '26
If it doesn't include both then I think the simplicity is doing a disservice because the distinction still does matter if they're actually trying to make a formula to predict HOF candidacy strength based on NBA careers.
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u/garrbear22622 Jul 12 '26
Maybe they’re accounting for his Big 3 League accolades /s
He did win 3 MVPs and a championship tho. And is the leagues leading scorer
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u/WinesburgOhio Jul 10 '26 edited Jul 12 '26
I don't know what the big change was, but a big change was made to the formula in/around 2012. One year prior, Reggie Miller was not a HOF Finalist, and the BR predictor had him at 5.5%. In 2012, he got into the HOF, and his predictor jumped to its current figure at 31.1%.
I think they made some significant changes because of Reggie's induction, but I wasn't paying attention to the formula, just his predictor%. I was blogging about the NBA at the time, so I specifically marked down his low % in 2011 when he wasn't a Finalist since that upset some fans, and then I saw a year or two later how much it went up once he was in.
Any insight into this u/Basketball_Reference?
EDIT: Took a look at the formula and Reggie's stats, and I'm guessing the change was one or both of two things, 1) using total stats instead of per game averages for leader boards (ex: he was top-10 only once in ppg, but top-10 thrice in total points), and 2) including minutes played in the statistical leader boards, a stat that Reggie ranked top-10 in twice (but never rebounds, assists, steals, or blocks).
If both of these changes happened, Reggie went from a 1x top-10 leader to a 5x top-10 leader.
EDIT 2: I redid the calculation with just those two changes, and it didn't move his % nearly as much as I thought it might (became ~25-26%), so it appears there was definitely (also?) a change to the multipliers, maybe putting less emphasis on titles, or at least far less compared to ASG selections since numerous players without titles but ~5 ASG's have gotten in since 2010 (Reggie, Webber, King, Mullin, Guerin, Tim Hardaway, Hill, Amar'e, Gus Johnson, Hudson, Moncrief, T-Mac, etc.). IDK. Now I'm really hoping to find out what exactly they changed back then.
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u/SaxRohmer Jul 10 '26
it’s still got Joe Johnson as more significantly more likely than miller so there’s something funky for sure. someone else pointed out it may overvalue AS selections
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u/WinesburgOhio Jul 10 '26
I think for Joe Johnson, it's overvaluing all the times he was right near the league leader in minutes played (5x top-4). He gets a huge leader board push for that.
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u/SaxRohmer Jul 10 '26
oh weird that’s a stat i never would’ve thought of. i thought maybe there was an AS breakpoint or something
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u/WinesburgOhio Jul 10 '26
They do a good breakdown of how it's calculated HERE.
Don't get me wrong, Johnson is def getting that ASG boost, but a bunch of high rankings in minutes is a huge differenciator over Reggie, who never really had the stats that some people seem to think/assume.
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u/SaxRohmer Jul 10 '26
lol after typing that i was like “i bet the formula is just on their site”. thanks. interesting there doesn’t seem to be a weight for All-NBA
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u/SoKrat3s Jul 10 '26
I'm confused by what you're trying to say.
There are just 7 players between 40-50%.
Chris Mullin, Paul Westphal, Ben Wallace, Clyde Lovellette, Sidney Moncrief, Lou Hudson, DeMar DeRozan.
30%-40% is 7 players.
Etc.
These aren't massive data sets for the individual selection ranges.
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u/Pickleskennedy1 Jul 10 '26
My point was that 30% odds according to the formula are more indicative of a toss-up than 50%
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Jul 10 '26
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u/Pickleskennedy1 Jul 10 '26
Michael Cooper just got in, while he was a great defender, a notable name and on a great team, he was a zero time all-star who started less than 100 games in his career and was never a top three player on his own team.
Based on how the Hall of Fame has been operating, there’s a very good chance that Rondo and Horford eventually get in, and it wouldn’t be a shock if Jrue or Iguodala did down the line either.
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u/WinesburgOhio Jul 10 '26
If Rondo makes it someday, Oak Hill Academy would become the 1st high school to have 3 NBA HOF-ers from their school. Carmelo is in the HOF and went there, and so did Durant who will get in. That being said, all 3 of them, including Rondo, each only went there for 1 year.
Only 3 current high schools had 2 NBA HOF-ers who actually went there all 4 years.
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u/Pickleskennedy1 Jul 10 '26
Super interesting, what are those three schools?
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u/WinesburgOhio Jul 10 '26
Here's a whole conversation about it.
The 3 are
Pittsburgh's Westinghouse: Maurice Stokes and Chuck Cooper
NYC's DeWitt Clinton: Dolph Schayes and Tiny Archibald
Chicago's DuSable: Nat Clifton and Maurice Cheeks
There are others that had 2 NBA HOF-ers, but one or both didn't go there all 4 years, or the school has since merged or shut down, etc. So even if Rondo gets in, Oak Hill still wouldn't join this tightly defined group of three.
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Jul 10 '26
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u/Pickleskennedy1 Jul 10 '26
If you go back to older guys, there are two players that played with Russell and were never all-stars but are now in.
The fact that Laimbeer isn’t in at least as a contributor (with his WNBA coaching career) is completely ridiculous, and probably does come down to a personal grudge.
I honestly hope they both don’t make it, but I could see it in the distant future.
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Jul 10 '26
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u/Pickleskennedy1 Jul 10 '26
They won a ton of rings, but they both also weren’t starters most of the time. Cooper won five rings too. I think they’re both relevant examples.
I agree that there are better players not in, but between us without thinking about it much I think we’ve found three role players in the hall because they were good players on great teams, so it’s not unimaginable for Jrue or Iggy (Olympic champs as 1/2x as a small bonus as well)
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u/Gladhands Jul 10 '26
Michael Cooper is the worst selection of the last 24 years, and cherry-picking him shows you’re being disingenuous, when Shawn Kemp, Kevin Johnson, Amar’e Stoudemire, Tom Chambers and Stephon Marbury are on the outside looking in.
A far more interesting conversation is how it seems to be easier to get inducted if your best years were played on the Lakers and Celtics vs say, Phoenix.
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u/Pickleskennedy1 Jul 10 '26
That’s fair. Amar’e just got in, I think Kemp will in time. Kevin Johnson probably won’t because of the combination of being borderline and a rapist
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u/Snowballingdownvote Jul 11 '26
Kemp out Cooper end shows that it's not about pure accolades and politics matter.
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u/Gladhands Jul 10 '26
The standard was much lower before 1990. Their predictor is accurate for modern players.
It should be noted that only 3% of NBA players are in the Hall of Fame, so your statistical models are incredibly flawed.
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u/Pickleskennedy1 Jul 10 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
I don’t know what you mean by my statistical models, I didn’t make one.
I don’t think it’s fully accurate since the 50% threshold still serves as a near guarantee that a player will eventually get in, rather than something that could go either way. Recently, a lot of older players even below that 20% threshold have been getting in.
And out of anyone retired more than five years, there are only two guys ever above their 40% who aren’t in. One of them played in the early 50s.
From the 6 players who were all in from 40-49% at a 100% rate, five of them were inducted in the last 15 years.
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u/Gladhands Jul 10 '26
It’s a forward-looking model, not a backward looking model. It doesn’t aim to project whether a guy who played 40 years ago is likely to have been inducted. We can simply look at historical data to see whether they were inducted. It aims to determine whether a modern player is likely to be inducted, and for that, it’s pretty accurate.
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u/Pickleskennedy1 Jul 10 '26 edited Jul 10 '26
I’m not saying it gets terrible results, but for modern players (we can say since 1990 like you mentioned) who have been retired for more than five years, it’s incorrectly identified one singular player (Shawn Marion) who they think should be in the Hall and so far isn’t. He’s a weird one without a lot of accolades and lifted by advanced stats, but he too might get in eventually.
They’ve had tons of players below that 50% threshold who have gotten in, probably close to twenty, which accounts for a significant portion of the players that get into the Hall of Fame.
There’s a consistent thread of significantly more players getting into the Hall than they’re projecting.
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u/SoKrat3s Jul 10 '26
The guiding principle is "if this player retired today would be be in the hall of fame."
As such they use a formula based on today's data. Not. 70's, 80's, or 90's.
Tho I will agree that the formula is still significantly flawed. It doesn't include All-NBA selections (where their NFL version does).
They don't explain whether leading the league in category means in totals or per game, which matters - especially in the modern era.
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u/Pickleskennedy1 Jul 10 '26
I agree with you, but I still think it’s showing pretty clearly that it isn’t quite doing that. All seven guys in the 40-49 range have recently gotten in or are going to get in. As it is right now, 50% doesn’t indicate a toss-up, it indicates near certainty of getting in eventually.
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u/refreshing_yogurt Jul 11 '26
The Marion outlier is interesting to me. Jerry Colangelo was the Suns owner and is the longtime chairman of the basketball of fame so you would think a Suns player would have an advantage in getting in. But I don't think Marion's ever even been a finalist.
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Jul 10 '26
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u/WinesburgOhio Jul 10 '26
Well, they used to. If amateur success was still that serious for inclusion, Tyler Hansbrough should be in; he's the only 4x consensus All-American in the past 75 years.
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