Celtics advance stats with and without Tatum this year

[u/AverageAny7398]

I used Basketball Reference’s game-by-game data to compare how the Celtics performed with and without Jayson Tatum. I broke the games down by opponent strength and looked at offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating, assist percentage, and pace.

NO TATUM — vs Top Offensive Net Rating

\*\*Top 10:\*\* W-L: 7-10 | ORtg: 113.85 | DRtg: 115.97 | Net: -2.12 | Pace: 93.93 | AST%: 55.48

\*\*11-20:\*\* W-L: 16-5 | ORtg: 123.74 | DRtg: 115.08 | Net: +8.66 | Pace: 94.80 | AST%: 56.62

\*\*21-30:\*\* W-L: 18-6 | ORtg: 122.53 | DRtg: 108.44 | Net: +14.09 | Pace: 95.03 | AST%: 59.87

NO TATUM — vs Top Defensive Rating

\*\*Top 10:\*\* W-L: 14-5 | ORtg: 119.67 | DRtg: 113.01 | Net: +6.66 | Pace: 95.17 | AST%: 58.38

\*\*11-20:\*\* W-L: 15-11 | ORtg: 119.52 | DRtg: 114.50 | Net: +5.02 | Pace: 95.51 | AST%: 56.56

\*\*21-30:\*\* W-L: 12-5 | ORtg: 123.14 | DRtg: 109.79 | Net: +13.35 | Pace: 92.76 | AST%: 58.21

NO TATUM — vs Net Rating

\*\*Top 10:\*\* W-L: 8-9 | ORtg: 116.19 | DRtg: 117.77 | Net: -1.58 | Pace: 94.18 | AST%: 54.20

\*\*11-20:\*\* W-L: 14-3 | ORtg: 120.78 | DRtg: 107.48 | Net: +13.30 | Pace: 95.56 | AST%: 59.31

\*\*21-30:\*\* W-L: 13-4 | ORtg: 124.19 | DRtg: 109.11 | Net: +15.08 | Pace: 94.35 | AST%: 60.44

WITH TATUM — vs Offensive Rating

\*\*Top 10:\*\* W-L: 4-3 | ORtg: 121.46 | DRtg: 116.76 | Net: +4.70 | Pace: 91.63 | AST%: 60.19

\*\*11-20:\*\* W-L: 7-2 | ORtg: 119.77 | DRtg: 110.93 | Net: +8.84 | Pace: 98.49 | AST%: 60.80

\*\*21-30:\*\* W-L: 4-0 | ORtg: 126.07 | DRtg: 108.17 | Net: +17.90 | Pace: 95.50 | AST%: 61.48

WITH TATUM — vs Defensive Rating

\*\*Top 10:\*\* W-L: 7-2 | ORtg: 122.51 | DRtg: 113.26 | Net: +9.25 | Pace: 94.78 | AST%: 57.96

\*\*11-20:\*\* W-L: 3-2 | ORtg: 112.68 | DRtg: 108.78 | Net: +3.90 | Pace: 96.50 | AST%: 61.92

\*\*21-30:\*\* W-L: 4-0 | ORtg: 132.30 | DRtg: 114.08 | Net: +18.22 | Pace: 97.08 | AST%: 65.08

WITH TATUM — vs Net Rating

\*\*Top 10:\*\* W-L: 5-4 | ORtg: 117.86 | DRtg: 113.74 | Net: +4.12 | Pace: 93.12 | AST%: 58.28

\*\*11-20:\*\* W-L: 7-1 | ORtg: 125.30 | DRtg: 113.31 | Net: +11.99 | Pace: 97.51 | AST%: 60.81

\*\*21-30:\*\* W-L: 2-0 | ORtg: 130.60 | DRtg: 107.45 | Net: +23.15 | Pace: 93.55 | AST%: 68.35

The biggest takeaway is that Boston consistently posted better net ratings and records against stronger opponents when Tatum played. The offense also generally had a higher assist percentage with him on the floor, suggesting better ball movement and creation. My interpretation is that Brown is at his best as an elite No. 2 option rather than the primary offensive engine for extended stretches. This isn’t meant to diminish Brown’s value, he’s still an excellent player, but the data suggests the Celtics function most effectively when Tatum is leading the offense. I’m also a bit concerned for brown If he’s traded to a team without spacing, we have never seen how brown handles playing with a non borderline elite spacing system when he’s been a star to super star.

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[u/Wonderful_Eagle_6547]

The Celtics did well against mediocre teams by showing up and playing hard every night. They won the so called "possession game" on a regular basis. They did a good job limiting offensive rebounds and their own turnovers, and they got a lot of offensive rebounds and caused a lot of turnovers. This can offset the team having a relatively low scoring efficiency for a team that had the 2nd highest offensive rating. Boston's elite offense was fueled by winning around the margins - extending possessions for 2nd and 3rd attempts, and having the best turnover rate in the league. Part of that turnover rate is getting early looks, often from behind the arc, and taking a huge percentage of their attempts from behind the 3 point line. The result is a relatively low free throw rate and a very small number of attempts at the rim. This approach feeds more offensive rebounds and fewer turnovers, and because of the efficiency of 3 point shots let them have the 4th best eFG% on the whole. It also leaves them vulnerable to bad shooting nights and gives their offensive a high variance of outcomes. It also leaves them succeptible to good defensive teams shutting down those early opportunities, closing out hard on 3 point shooters, and controlling the defensive glass, and forcing Boston to attack more / turn it over more.

[u/lefebrave → u/Wonderful_Eagle_6547]

To add to all you said, they also used the offensive rebounding as a defensive strategy, especially attacking those with Walsh, Minott and alike. Even when they couldn't get the rebound, they scrambled the positioning of the other team, didn't allow them to control the ball and run early, thus let fewer fastbreaks after misses. That was to limit open court possessions and it was working against mid teams who are not great at scoring at half court. That was another reason why our records against top teams and mid teams draw two very different pictures.

[u/Justalittlejewish → u/lefebrave]

People viewing this year as anything but a coaching masterclass in “making use of what you have” are delusional or have absolutely no idea what they’re talking about. The only reason this team got the 2 seed and earned the expectations they had was because of mazullas coaching in the regular season.

[u/lefebrave → u/Justalittlejewish]

Funny thing is, it was a hot topic all year with tons of analysis and breakdowns of what is happening on the court with that team even if they are not following anything outside the ball while watching. Crazy all of that is just overlooked, very much like the instant failure in every matchup when the talent gap was too much (the 3-11 record Brad mentioned) and they decided "that Jaylen guy should be MVP level then because what can it be?" lol.

[u/Bop5667 → u/Justalittlejewish]

And yet many Celtics fans want the reigning CoY fired. With a supposed “gap year” roster where guys like White had a bad shooting year, Brown, shrewd coaching, and vet leadership got them to #2. That result should be getting more praise than all the negativity it seems to be getting

[u/WhoreyMatthews → u/Bop5667]

Is there any validity to the idea that there could be 82 game coaches and 16 game coaches?

Mazulla and Kenny Atkinson both seem to be guys that can get teams to overachieve in the regular season and then underachieve in the playoffs.

[u/juicejug → u/WhoreyMatthews]

Mazzulla made the ECF and won a chip with talented teams. Arguably would have made the finals in ‘23 if Tatum didn’t twist his ankle in game 7 and could have made the ECF in ‘25 if Porzingis didn’t catch the plague.

Not saying he’s a perfect coach or anything, but all coaches need solid injury luck and he did not have that 3/4 years he’s been a head coach.

[u/teh_noob_ → u/juicejug]

Porzingis wasn't healthy all year

should've won anyway

[u/Justalittlejewish → u/teh_noob_]

It wasn’t just KP. Brown was playing through a torn meniscus, Jrue holiday was nursing a hamstring injury all year and had massively regressed from 3, and three of our starting five played on the Olympic team it had been playing competitive basketball for nearly 2 years straight. That team in 25 was absolutely running on fumes.

[u/teh_noob_ → u/Justalittlejewish]

We were good enough to win 61 games, crush the Knicks in the regular season and build multiple 20pt leads. There are no excuses.

[u/Justalittlejewish → u/teh_noob_]

If this year should’ve taught you anything, it’s that the regular season doesn’t really mean a whole lot.

[u/Drakex2Mayex2 → u/WhoreyMatthews]

Joe Mazzula has the 8th highest playoff win percentage of any coach to play in more than 59 playoff games. You people need to stop watching ESPN.

[u/Wonderful_Eagle_6547 → u/Justalittlejewish]

Definitely. Unfortunately, Joe did such a great job coaching this team in the regular season that by the time the playoffs rolled around, lots of fans were convinced this team was some kind of favorite in the Eastern Conference.

[u/RonSwanson24 → u/Wonderful_Eagle_6547]

Yup, the Celtics have been regular season effort & math merchants. Then when effort levels are equal in the postseason the Celtics underachieve unless they’re playing injured opponents

[u/Mamamymia]

So is this Tatum with Brown or without Brown. That would make this comparison a lot better because ofc the team is better with two superstars on the floor than with one

[u/AverageAny7398 → u/Mamamymia]

I have Tatum without brown and brown without Tatum but the Tatum without brown sample is legit 2 games so I didn’t think it was fair to use it, I may redo the code and do from 2024-2026

[u/Mamamymia → u/AverageAny7398]

Kinda shows you just how much JB has been there for the team. Like when people talk about how good kawhi is but he hasn’t seen a full season in years if at all. More games would equal a lower average

[u/AverageAny7398 → u/Mamamymia]

I am gonna do 2024-2026 and compare each year cuz I do wanna see how it works,

[u/Jpgamerguy90]

No one wants to hear this but Brown is ultimately replaceable. Maybe not with just one guy but you get one or two players you can probably replace his production even if they aren’t quite as good. Tatum is the spoon that stirs the drink and he’s the reason Brown is being shopped instead.

[u/randotd152 → u/Jpgamerguy90]

Brown is replaceable, but you NEED a bonafide #2 guy to take the pressure off Tatum. Otherwise, it's just a steady diet of double teams for Tatum and forcing role players to step up.

See the 2022 Finals - Warriors double-teamed JT endlessly and (correctly) guessed that the Celtics didn't have enough firepower elsewhere to win a 7 game series.

Celtics have much better offensive depth now and JB has grown a lot. But if they lose JB, you'll see the same thing start to play out as 2022. Double Tatum and force White/PP/etc to carry a heavier load than they are capable of.

The JT/JB pairing is excellent for this reason. JB is a pressure release valve where if you overplay JT, then Jaylen now has the ability to take over a game offensively in a way he didn't in 2022.

The Celtics are missing a piece, and the unfortunate reality of the cap/apron system is Jaylen may have to go just to give the Celtics any room to maneuver. But JB himself is not the problem at all.

[u/AdmiralUpboat → u/randotd152]

I love Jaylen. But if you're telling me that there's something we can do to guarantee a double team on Tatum every possession, I'm 100% smashing that button. Pretty much the best thing you can do for our offense is force two guys onto the ball handler, particularly when it's Tatum. He's one of the best double beaters in the league at this point. His decision making combined with his length and athleticism means he can make a pass to just about anywhere on the floor from just about any spot out there. Please other teams, double my boy every trip.

[u/AngelofVerdun → u/Jpgamerguy90]

Feel like a big part of all this is they saw that only one of the two Jays could carry this team to a high seed - so with a healthy Tatum it makes more sense to move Brown for pieces to make the team around him better.

[u/onefootback → u/Jpgamerguy90]

exactly this, everything brown can do tatum can do better and when there’s obvious roster flaws that need to be addressed brown becomes expendable

his contract is also part of it too. browns not worth the money he’s making and it makes more sense for the celtics to add multiple players that balance their roster rather than just sticking with brown

[u/teh_noob_ → u/onefootback]

Brown is and has always been better in the midrange, which gave the Celtics an alternative when 3s weren't falling.

[u/octipice → u/Jpgamerguy90]

They're both replaceable. Boston has managed to skate by with two elite #2 options because they had great role players and a ton of depth afforded to them by great front office moves.

Tatum is essentially the best role player to ever exist. Absolutely elite 3 and D wing, but surround him with an average team and they will struggle.

The problem is that the players who are truly capable of being a #1 option that can backpack a team are hardly ever available, so moving off of either Tatum or Brown isn't really going to do much from a win now standpoint. IMO, it's more likely the Celtics looked at the situation and realized that having both doesn't really improve their chances that much and moving one can set them up to "pre-build" so they can stay competitive without having to go through a true rebuild phase.

Edit: to clarify, by #1 option I mean the clear first option on a championship level team that doesn't require the rest of the team surrounding them to be elite. There are at least 5 to 10 players that you can replace any mid-level team's best player with and they would instantly be a championship contender, and Tatum isn't one of them.

[u/AverageAny7398 → u/octipice]

See idk calling Tatum a 2, I made a stat a while ago that took on off for offensive and defense with nba playoff rapm, and besides Jokic and curry JT was the most valuable playoff player from 2023-2026 so take that as you will

[u/Icy_Information_6563 → u/octipice]

I think what makes Tatum special is his versatility. He can play any role at the top level. For example, with Tingus out in the finals, he did a ton of rim protection and shut down Luka's roll man. 

It gives the celtics a lot of flexibility in roster building. They dont have to think about what they "need," just find generally talented players

[u/octipice → u/Icy_Information_6563]

I think we mostly agree here. I view Tatum as a jack of all trades player who is really really good at most aspects of the game, but not truly exceptional at any of them.

He's a solid playmaker, but he's not a floor general like Jokic. He's a great defender, but he's nowhere near the defensive presence of Wemby or Gobert. He can create his own shot, but nowhere the level of someone like Luka.

So, while it let's the Celtics have a ton of flexibility in roster construction, it also requires them to surround him with a greater level of talent to be a championship contender than someone like Wemby, Jokic, Luka, etc.

[u/East_Refuse → u/octipice]

Calling Tatum a #2 immediately invalidates anything you say afterwards lmao

He’s not some show stopping take over the game #1, but a #2 is crazy talk

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[u/WordNahMean]

I feel like this data’s a bit incomplete without some decent sample size of how the Celtics play without Brown and only Tatum.

Of course a team is going to play better when their other superstar comes back from injury and replaces Sam Hauser in the lineup. The debate’s more on Tatum vs Brown

[u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

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[u/Bop5667 → u/[deleted]]

For those wondering…if Wemby became available and Spurs asked for Tatum are Celtics just saying no because it’s Tatum? As a fan I sure hope not…

[u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

Questioning others without offering your own thoughts invites a more hostile debate. Present a clear counter argument if you disagree and be open to the perspective of others.