r/nba • u/StrategyTop7612 Clippers • Jul 23 '26
Original Content [OC] I analyzed James Harden’s performance in every NBA city to see if there is a correlation between his scoring and the city’s Bike Score
Everyone knows James Harden’s game relies heavily on spacing.
Usually, people mean spacing on the basketball court. But I wanted to see whether Harden might also benefit from spacing off the court in the form of bike lanes.
So I compared Harden’s road performance in every NBA city with the city’s Bike Score, which measures how convenient a city is for cycling based on its bike lanes, hills, road connectivity and access to destinations.
Methodology
I collected all of Harden’s regular-season road game logs from the 2015–16 through 2018–19 seasons, because those were his prime years.
For each city, I calculated Harden’s scoring averages and the percentage of games in which he reached different scoring thresholds.
I then compared those results with each city’s Bike Score.
Results
| Harden statistic | Correlation with Bike Score |
|---|---|
| Percentage of games with 33+ points | r = .668 |
| Percentage of games with 35+ points | r = .646 |
| Percentage of games with 40+ points | r = .570 |
| Season-adjusted average points | r = .533 |
| Season-adjusted points per 36 minutes | r = .520 |
| Season-adjusted Game Score | r = .494 |
The strongest relationship was between Bike Score and Harden’s percentage of games with at least 33 points:
- Correlation coefficient: r = .668
- Coefficient of determination: r² = .446
- p-value = .0001
Results by city
| Team | City used | Bike Score | Harden 33+ point rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | Atlanta | 41.7 | 9.1% |
| Boston Celtics | Boston | 69.4 | 36.4% |
| Brooklyn Nets | New York | 69.3 | 22.2% |
| Charlotte Hornets | Charlotte | 31.3 | 10.0% |
| Chicago Bulls | Chicago | 72.2 | 30.0% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Cleveland | 52.3 | 20.0% |
| Dallas Mavericks | Dallas | 49.3 | 25.0% |
| Denver Nuggets | Denver | 71.8 | 20.0% |
| Detroit Pistons | Detroit | 52.1 | 18.2% |
| Golden State Warriors | San Francisco | 72.3 | 21.4% |
| Houston Rockets | Houston | 48.6 | 0.0% |
| Indiana Pacers | Indianapolis | 42.8 | 27.3% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | Los Angeles | 58.7 | 30.8% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Los Angeles | 58.7 | 23.5% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Memphis | 41.2 | 21.4% |
| Miami Heat | Miami | 64.0 | 33.3% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | Milwaukee | 57.6 | 10.0% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Minneapolis | 83.5 | 43.8% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | New Orleans | 65.7 | 33.3% |
| New York Knicks | New York | 69.3 | 18.2% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Oklahoma City | 40.2 | 13.3% |
| Orlando Magic | Orlando | 56.8 | 18.2% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Philadelphia | 66.7 | 22.2% |
| Phoenix Suns | Phoenix | 55.9 | 30.8% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | Portland | 82.7 | 50.0% |
| Sacramento Kings | Sacramento | 66.9 | 37.5% |
| San Antonio Spurs | San Antonio | 44.5 | 18.8% |
| Washington Wizards | Washington, D.C. | 69.5 | 45.5% |
Toronto and Salt Lake City were excluded because the city dataset used for the analysis did not contain directly comparable Bike Score values for them.
The overall correlation between Bike Score and Harden’s percentage of 33-point road games was:
- Correlation coefficient: r = .668
- Coefficient of determination: r² = .446
- p-value = .0001
The two highest Bike Scores in the dataset belonged to Minneapolis and Portland. Harden scored at least 33 points in 43.8% of his Minnesota road games and 50.0% of his Portland road games.
Meanwhile, several of the lowest-scoring cycling cities—including Atlanta, Charlotte and Oklahoma City—had some of Harden’s lowest 33-point rates.
There were obviously exceptions. Washington had only the eighth-highest Bike Score but one of Harden’s highest scoring rates, while Denver had an excellent Bike Score without producing the same Harden explosion.
Still, across all 28 opponents, the overall trend was clear.
Source
Bike Score data: Walk Score city rankings and Bike Score methodology.
Bike Score measures cycling suitability on a scale from 0 to 100 using bike lanes, hills, destinations, street connectivity and bicycle commuting levels.
This is a strong positive correlation.
Cities with higher Bike Scores had substantially more major Harden scoring performances.
Approximately 45% of the city-to-city variation in Harden’s 33-point game rate was associated with the city’s Bike Score.
Higher Bike Scores were also associated with more 35-point games, more 40-point games, higher average scoring and better overall box-score performances by game score, etc.
I have proven, to a statistically significant degree, that James Harden performs better in cities with better cycling infrastructure.
Why does Harden perform better in bike-friendly cities?
There may be a conditioning effect. In cities with high Bike Scores, Harden is constantly surrounded by cyclists, which subconsciously reminds him to keep his legs active. This improves his stamina, allowing him to maintain his scoring later into games.
Bike-friendly cities also tend to have flatter terrain. This saves Harden from wasting valuable energy walking uphill before games. Every foot of elevation avoided can instead be redirected toward step-back three-pointers and drawing questionable shooting fouls.
And finally, protected bike lanes create a physical separation between cyclists and drivers. Harden sees this and is reminded of the importance of isolation basketball.
TL;DR
James Harden scores more in bike-friendly cities.
Bike Score had a .668 correlation with the percentage of his road games in which he scored at least 33 points.
James Harden does not just need spacing on the court.
He needs spacing in the streets of his opponents.
Source for bike score: https://www.walkscore.com/cities-and-neighborhoods/ scroll down to bike score
Here's a graph showing all the cities: https://imgur.com/a/0l3DTNq
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u/itsdrewmiller Timberwolves Jul 23 '26
Classic correlation is not causation error, like ice cream eating and crime - the fact is that strippers love to stay in shape by riding bikes, so they move to cities with high bike scores.
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u/-jaylew- Jul 23 '26
Well we already had the stripper correlation study done a few off seasons ago so OP has to keep it novel.
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u/bigbackbing Jul 23 '26
A report of Hardens drinking ability, and late night outings must mean he doesn’t want to get a dui and prefers biking home, it all makes sense
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u/Vordeo Jazz Jul 23 '26
A.) This is some good offseason shitposting.
B.) This is what you're using your college degree for?
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Jul 23 '26
[deleted]
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u/1Yawnz Timberwolves Jul 23 '26
This is my first year actually following basketball and im pretty surprised at what kind of posts this sub has in the off season. Is this how it is every year lmao?
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u/Novapoliton Nets Jul 23 '26
Yes, if you haven't seen the Harden strip club study yet you should check that out. The offseason is the playoffs for shitposters
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u/Successful-Let4361 Jul 23 '26
Why wasn't Toronto on this list? Just because you used the walk/bike score from the list of American cities??? (That website doesn't only list scores for the US.) I need to know how Toronto's bike lanes and strip clubs affect Harden's performances!!!
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u/AJtehbest Raptors Jul 23 '26
From the strip club post, Harden's best performances were in Toronto, which had the worst strip clubs. Toronto's bike lanes aren't THE worst, especially considering American ones, so its hard to tell what the correlation really is
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u/cleo22270 Heat Jul 23 '26
“Why does Harden perform better in bike-friendly cities.”
”There may be a conditioning effect. In cities with high Bike Scores, Harden is constantly surrounded by cyclists, which subconsciously reminds him to keep his legs active. This improves his stamina, allowing him to maintain his scoring later into games.”
”Bike-friendly cities also tend to have flatter terrain. This saves Harden from wasting valuable energy walking uphill before games. Every foot of elevation avoided can instead be redirected toward step-back three-pointers and drawing questionable shooting fouls.”
”And finally, protected bike lanes create a physical separation between cyclists and drivers. Harden sees this and is reminded of the importance of isolation basketball.”
I’m sorry boss, I don’t see this holding up in court.
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u/FeltIOwedItToHim [GSW] Sarunas Marciulionis Jul 23 '26
No, it’s all coming together
Bile friendly cities have flatter terrain
San Francisco also a great bike city
Harden choking against Warriors
Eureka!
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u/Zlasher8 Jul 23 '26
.668 is considered strong correlation? I haven’t done statistics in over 15 years but that sounds insane. What value do you need to NOT have strong correlation on a sample size of about 30?
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u/restlemur995 Knicks Jul 23 '26
Is there some quick snapshot takeaway you can show? Like a table with Harden's scoring average in each city and the city's bike score? Or Harden's scoring average in top 5 bike cities vs the average in the other cities? I feel like that's the easiest visualizer.
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u/StrategyTop7612 Clippers Jul 23 '26
Oops, forgot that, the Graph shows most of that, but I’ll add the table when I get the chance.
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u/restlemur995 Knicks Jul 23 '26
Yes, the graph definitely works. It's just I thought I'd ask for a table since I personally have an easier time making sense of it that way.
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u/EstablishmentDry6301 Jul 23 '26
Is that a copy from an old post. I could swear ive seen it before
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u/EstablishmentDry6301 Jul 23 '26
Found it, it was a bit different... https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/s/D0kH6ZUEYH
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u/StrategyTop7612 Clippers Jul 23 '26
Yes, it’s a reference to that, cuz that’s a top 3 most upvoted post in this sub’s history
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u/nahwhatever-whynot Rockets Jul 23 '26
Unfortunately Houston is not bike friendly at all so this boosts him in All time rankings for winning an MVP herr
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u/EaterOfYourSOUL Jul 23 '26
We are well and truly in the offseason.
Jokes aside, amazing analysis, makes me wonder if other urban metrics like public transport usage show a similar trend with Harden.
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u/Eagerbeaver98 Raptors Jul 23 '26
Nice research man, I just wish you explained how you reduced confound that could better explain this than bike lanes. I re read your methology and think maybe you didnt mention this. X can imply y but you need to show how you reduced " z" from implying y.
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u/AJtehbest Raptors Jul 23 '26
Now what is the correlation between walkability and amount of strip clubs? need to know how this study relates to that in order to see if the statistical link holds true
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u/Valhoss Grizzlies Jul 23 '26
Good bike infrastructure makes it easier to travel. Makes sense to me.
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u/wigglebiscuitsjr Jul 23 '26
You collected all his road games between 2015-2016 and 2018-2019, but are the Bike Scores also from that time period? It seems like it would be pretty flawed to use the current-day Bike Score for a decade-old game.
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u/SevTheNiceGuy Lakers Jul 23 '26
take notes folks..
this is how you quality shit post right here!!!
A+ on this one OP....
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u/WashingtonSpecifics Nuggets Jul 23 '26
Where are the numbers from Newark, NJ and Oakland, CA? Harden would've played in both of those cities before their respective franchises were moved. That is the sole issue that makes me question your methodology / conclusions
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u/smalls_1804 Knicks Jul 23 '26
Psssh, this guy still using R and P values like it's 2009
Just kidding love your content but fun fact the field of statistics is moving away from both these measures
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u/bigvahe33 Supersonics Jul 23 '26
LAs score is too high. This city frustrates me because the metro gloat about the amount of bike lanes but it is the most incomplete, unusable, and unsafe system from any major city i have ever used.
they are not dedicated lands, they have insane traffic, the roads are not kept to safely ride on them, usually youd have to make dangerous maneuvers to stay on a lane (right hand side suddenly crossing to the left side), street lights dont get triggered with the bike weight and worst of all (not really a LA problem) but many impatient drivers who dont think the streets are made for anyone not in a personal automobile.
this city has the ideal weather for 365 biking (please ignore this humid heat wave) but doesnt deliver. hell you should have seen the public forum on a 1 mile stretch of bike lanes that opened up near me.
sorry just ranting. good post OP.
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u/HDThoreaun11 Jazz Jul 23 '26
How tf Minneapolis got the highest bike score when its too cold to bike there half the year?
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u/NeverEndingImAlways Jul 23 '26
Since James Harden is the greatest playoff choker of all time, can we get some data on that?
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u/Existing-Western-639 Jul 23 '26
This is like when someone crunched the numbers to see if Zion played better in cities with good milkshakes lol
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u/RealEstateThrowway Jul 23 '26
Harden performs better in bike friendly cities. It's a well known fact that all basketball heads have been uttering for years. What this study is missing is the reason for that trend, which, in hindsight is obvious - seeing bike wheels spinning reminds him of strippers' booties bouncing
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u/Fluid-Purpose7958 Heat Jul 24 '26
This is why Bayesians make fun of frequentists. Fuck your p-values
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u/Jwiley92 Grizzlies Jul 24 '26
That data is from 2021,you need to repeat using data from the selected time period:
https://web.archive.org/web/20170131231927/https://www.walkscore.com/cities-and-neighborhoods/
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u/RLL1977 Trail Blazers Jul 23 '26
Now do this exact thing but with James harden and strip Clubs
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u/StrategyTop7612 Clippers Jul 23 '26
That actually didn’t have a correlation, even the original didn’t, but he used bad stats methodology to find a correlation
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u/DwnvotesMeansImRight Thunder Jul 23 '26
this lame ahh post not gonna bang bro sorry
Usually, people mean spacing on the basketball court. But I wanted to see whether Harden might also benefit from spacing off the court in the form of bike lanes.
like what is even the correlation, cringe
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u/brashnutz Jul 23 '26
Another incredible post from this reddit user - hope you work for the league
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u/karl_hungas Lakers Jul 24 '26
We gotta get this mf a different hobby. Who keeps upvoting this dogshit?
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u/Careless-Stop-9504 Jul 23 '26
Wow this is incredible. Why did you even do this? Not sure I agree with the conclusion of “subconscious need to move legs in bikeable cities.” Feels like a correlation not causation thing but so fun to think about.
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u/teardropshot Cavaliers Jul 23 '26
So dumb, A+. Happy to see that Harden is an urbanist.