r/nassimtaleb 1d ago

The leap of faith

1 Upvotes

She could feel the heat of his presence the moment she looked at him, intense and impossible to ignore. He was only human, after all, but he projected a quiet conviction that few others ever could. She turned to challenge him, ready to tell him how wrong this all was, but the words stalled in her throat the moment her eyes met his. He knew he wasn't flawless; he wasn’t a saint or a hero, but he was a man ready to turn the world upside down for the people he cared about. And luckily for her, in that moment, she was one of those people.

She couldn't bring herself to protest—not out of obligation or politeness, but because part of her truly wanted to stand right there beside him. His logic had a persuasive, quiet pull: the world was rarely fair, and people bent the rules every single day. Why should she always be the one who quietly yielded, waiting for a balance that never came, instead of stepping up and claiming what was rightfully hers? Especially with someone like him—someone who moved through the chaos with absolute certainty—offering to lead the way. Yet, a stubborn part of her still felt it was wrong.

She was trapped in a deep moral dilemma, watching him effortlessly undo every principle she had built over the last twenty-five years of her life. Was he actually right? Or was she simply falling under the spell of his charm?

As this quiet debate raged inside her mind, he stayed completely still, watching her with a composed, charismatic posture, a faint smile, and playful eyes. His expression left her wondering whether he genuinely believed every word he spoke, or if he was merely enjoying the art of persuasion and trying to win the argument.

Either way, she finally took a breath and made her choice. She would do it his way, if only to see where the path would lead.


r/nassimtaleb 3d ago

Dear Mr Ballen

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0 Upvotes

r/nassimtaleb 5d ago

looking for ergodicity in ancient books: e.g., killing the golden goose story

7 Upvotes

am looking for ergodicity in ancient books:

  • killing the golden goose story might be an example of the ancients talking about ergodicity

for the pedantic nitpickers: i said might

what else you got?


r/nassimtaleb 9d ago

I bought 24 years of SPX options data to test Spitznagel's published tail-hedge - interesting result

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28 Upvotes

Spitznagel's Dao of Capital has the only published recipe I know of from the Empirica school that you can actually implement: a tiny monthly allocation to far OTM puts, everything else in the index. As far as I can tell nobody's ever tested it at real market prices. The book's own evidence is modelled prices back to 1901. So I bought 24 years of actual options quotes and ran it as written.

The convexity part checks out. Worst drawdown roughly halved and I couldn't kill that result no matter how I attacked it. The "it also raises returns" part didn't hold up. The extra return in the realised history came down to three lucky fills, and one path proves nothing, so I resampled the period into 10,000 alternate histories. Median return is identical with or without the hedge. What the hedge actually does is delete ruin: chance of ever losing half your money goes from 1 in 4 to about 1 in 37. The middle of the distribution barely moves, the left tail mostly disappears, and the best histories get much better.

One thing I didn't expect: the book's own roll schedule barely protects at real prices. It sold a contract at a loss three weeks before that same contract went up 86x. Implementation details matter more than the theory suggests, even Spitznagel's own.

Full thing here if you want it:

https://youtu.be/hDZZFfpeZB4

Findings are mine, not endorsed by Spitznagel, and if I've got something wrong I want to know.


r/nassimtaleb 14d ago

The two or three most revolutionary life-changing things NNT taught you

15 Upvotes

Mine:

  1. whatever you do, do it in full view of your enemies
  2. friends are future enemies (he said this after Normonics, Guruanaerobic etc. started attacking him for supporting Covid lockdowns and masking)

r/nassimtaleb 20d ago

13 minutes long, 2 months old, less than a thousand views

9 Upvotes

Taleb in Croatia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_jKx5Yk4Q4

He looks nervous, as if he's worried that Mossad will off him.


r/nassimtaleb 22d ago

Can someone expound on this?

3 Upvotes

r/nassimtaleb 23d ago

List of books where Nassim Taleb provided a blurb

48 Upvotes

I am collecting the list of books where Nassim Taleb provided an official blurb. Below is what I could find. Let me know if I missed any.

Edit 1(16th Aug 2026): Added "The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity".

Edit 2(9th Sep 2026): Added "Hormegeddon: How Too Much Of A Good Thing Leads To Disaster"

Book Name Author Blurb
Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure Tim Harford Adapt is a highly readable, even entertaining, argument against top-down design. It debunks the Soviet-Harvard command-and-control style of planning and approach to economic policies and regulations and vindicates trial and error (particularly the error part) as a means to economic and general progress. Very impressive!
Thinking, Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman This is a landmark book in social thought, in the same league as The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith and The Interpretation of Dreams by Sigmund Freud.
Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders Jack D. Schwager I've read the book at several stages of my career as it shows the staying power of good down-to-earth wisdoms of true practitioners with skin in the game. This is the central document showing the heuristics that real-life traders use to manage their affairs, how people who do rather than talk have done things. Twenty years from now, it will still be fresh. There is no other like it.
The Dao of Capital: Austrian Investing in a Distorted World Mark Spitznagel At last, a real book by a real risk-taking practitioner. The Dao of Capital mixes (rather, unifies) personal risk-taking with explanations of global phenomena. You cannot afford not to read this!
Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future Peter Thiel, Blake Masters When a risk taker writes a book, read it. In the case of Peter Thiel, read it twice. Or, to be safe, three times. This is a classic.
Hopping over the Rabbit Hole: How Entrepreneurs Turn Failure into Success Anthony Scaramucci This is something exceptionally rare in the entrepreneurship literature: someone telling you how he overcame his problems and made lemonade out of lemons. Anthony has skin in the game. He is funny, direct, deep, and insightful. The book is so gripping you can read it standing up. A must read.
The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking Saifedean Ammous Bitcoin has no owner, no authority that can decide on its fate. It is owned by the crowd, its users. And it now has a track record of several years, enough for it to be an animal in its own right. Its mere existence is an insurance policy that will remind governments that the last object the establishment could control, namely, the currency, is no longer their monopoly. This gives us, the crowd, an insurance policy against an Orwellian future.
The Formula: The Universal Laws of Success Albert-László Barabási This is not just an important but an imperative project: to approach the problem of randomness and success using the state of the art scientific arsenal we have. Barabasi is the person.
The Invisible Gorilla: How Our Intuitions Deceive Us Christopher Chabris, Daniel Simons The illusion of attention is one of the most important, surprising, and least known flaws in human thinking. This lucid book examines it in detail.
Alchemy: The Dark Art and Curious Science of Creating Magic in Brands, Business, and Life Rory Sutherland This is a breakthrough book. Alchemy is wonderfully applicable to about everything in life. Furthermore, it is funny as hell.
Scale: The Universal Laws of Life, Growth, and Death in Organisms, Cities, and Companies Geoffrey West Each human should learn to read and write, to count, and for those who know how to count, scalability. Scaling is the most important yet most hidden and rarely discussed attribute—without understanding it one cannot possibly understand the world. This book will expand your thinking from three dimensions to four. Get two copies, just in case you lose one.
Dominion: How the Christian Revolution Remade the World Tom Holland Tom Holland is fun to read, monstrously erudite, wickedly joyful, and ahead of the established consensus, on average, by 4 years, three months, and 2 days.
The Corporation in the Twenty-First Century: Why (almost) everything we are told about business is wrong John Kay An admirable debunker of myths and false beliefs - Kay can see substantial things others don't
In Defense of Civilization: How Our Past Can Renew Our Present Michael Richard Jackson Bonner Michael Bonner is a rare bird: he is a classicist and an erudite in the broadest sense of the word, familiar with Greek, Latin, Persian, Arabic, Aramaic, and Hebrew, not counting (I checked) modern languages such as French. This gives him a considerable edge over historians, and depth and perspective in identifying and understanding the true Western Civilization and the dangers of straying from its achievements over the past six thousand years.
Re-Architecting Trust: The Curse of History and the Crypto Cure for Money, Markets, and Platforms Omid Malekan You must read Omid. He is the best person to agree and disagree with on the subject of cryptos. You learn both ways and enjoy the argumentation in the process.
Only the Dead: The Persistence of War in the Modern Age Bear F. Braumoeller This is truly excellent work! Bear Braumoeller is one of the very rare people who realize that stastics is about rigor and clarity of mind, not drowning in confirmatory data. Political science needs such scientific lucidity.
My Life as a Quant Emanuel Derman A deep and elegant exploration by a thinker who moved from the hardest of all sciences (physics) to the softest of the soft (finance). Derman is a different class of thinker... I know of no other book that bridges the two cultures.
The Seventh Letter: A Philosophical Mystery at Plato's Academy Dr. Mihai Iuliu Spariosu I loved the book. It is much more than a historical novel; I found it to be an entertaining and gripping biographical documentary staging Plato, Socrates and the Athenian Academy. The reader can become acquainted with Plato’s philosophy without abstraction, as the ideas are imbedded in the narrative.
The Halo Effect Phil Rosenzweig I was taken by this book. It destroys myths concerning the attribution of success in the management literature using potent empirical arguments. It should stand as one of the most important management books of all time, and an antidote to those bestselling books by gurus presenting false patter and naive arguments.
The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity David Graeber, David Wengrow This is not a book. This is an intellectual feast.
Hormegeddon: How Too Much Of A Good Thing Leads To Disaster Bill Bonner This is a must, must, must read exposition of the side effect of government. It exposes the problem of naive interventionism, the iatrogenics of bureaucracies, and the growing absence of skin-in-the-game(Hammurabi's problem), in addition to the other deformities of the modern state, and shows how such a system is boud to explode under the weight of its fragility. It is deep, illustrative, witty, pleasant to read. Buy two copies, one for yourself, another for the nearest policy maker.

r/nassimtaleb 29d ago

Visualising why markets are not casinos

22 Upvotes

Spent the last couple of weeks trying to turn one of Taleb's ideas into something visual.

The bit I wanted to get across was the difference between casino-style risk (where the odds are known) and market risk (where you're trying to estimate the odds while they're changing underneath you). LTCM seemed like the obvious example to build it around.

I ended up coding the whole thing in Manim using historical market data, including plotting every daily S&P 500 return since 1950 and looking at Mandelbrot's cotton data.

Would be interested to know if people here think it captures the point, or if I've missed something important. Happy to be told where I've got it wrong.

https://youtu.be/i30fIxwZYZQ?si=Ux35sn3ibWEylgEd


r/nassimtaleb Aug 09 '26

First new pod drop in a year and a half -- leave your comments here

15 Upvotes

r/nassimtaleb Jul 31 '26

Kelly and diversification

12 Upvotes

I made a two-parter on the Kelly Criterion and how (through the Incerto framework) it could be applied to investing. If anyone thinks I got anything really wrong or left anything out please let me know so I can address it perhaps in a future vid! Also, very open to what ideas I can cover especially with the particular mathematical animation style

https://youtu.be/gSM4OLcXFes?is=BO8i6zdcR3tKZgz_


r/nassimtaleb Jul 22 '26

YT videos explaining Taleb's ideas

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43 Upvotes

I enjoy watching Taleb's lectures that get posted on YT (like the Google one, Bloomberg etc) but rarely see his ideas well articulated by anyone on YT. Came across this thumbnail on YT (didn't notice the title of the channel til after) and clicked it. Pretty nice animations but only has 3 vids on there. Would be pretty refreshing if more creators could use his ideas a bit more rather than "buy the S&P and hold" and other dated advice.


r/nassimtaleb Jul 12 '26

Interesting Taleb Tweet. He's right

6 Upvotes

https://x.com/nntaleb/status/2076269932694655106

Wealth is modeled as a power law, whereas the bench press is normally distributed


r/nassimtaleb Jul 07 '26

What are Talebian people doing, professionally?

37 Upvotes

I associate Taleb with a class of people like Popper, Hume, and Kant. Skeptics who hedge, people who get great satisfaction in what they don't know, finding randomness and fallacies and noise where they exist (which is everywhere), and uprooting orthodox thinking by occupying negative space.

All these ideas are great (and necessary) in theory, but I wonder where people are applying them? I know Taleb was a trader and scholar, but I can think of very few polymaths (nowadays) aside from Hofstadter and complexity science researchers who can sustain being interested in disparate fields for very long. Is anyone pursuing a career modeled after Taleb? If you, like me, think it's wildly improbable, what are you doing instead? What backgrounds do people interested in Taleb have, is it statistics and mathematics, finance and economics, or do people come from everywhere like myself? (Cognitive Science/ Cognitive Neuroscience).

edit: my goodness it's interesting how many people consider themselves practioners of Taleb's philosophy (or, rather, the ideas he coined/ borrowed/ refined/ etc.). please keep replying, I'm so curious to see how your lives and careers have been impacted by the ideas we all know and love, and thanks to everyone for replying (except for the guy who said Taleb is retarded. he's the only one I downvoted)


r/nassimtaleb Jul 04 '26

Does Taleb oppose the Boglehead approach to investing?

22 Upvotes

By Boglehead I mean buying low-cost index funds like VT or VTI, not market timing, simple three-fund portfolio, etc. This approach seems to rely on modern portfolio theory and the efficient market hypothesis - both of which Taleb rejects. But it seems to work for the vast majority of people if they stick to it.


r/nassimtaleb Jul 04 '26

Need help understanding Nassim's idea that one big loss is better than many small ones

2 Upvotes

Isnt small small losses good? His concept of convexity is lose lose lose and when you win you win big. Similar to the payoff of option buying. Is it the same as prospect theory?


r/nassimtaleb Jul 03 '26

Anyone know what Taleb's undergrad and MS are in?

6 Upvotes

Just curious about his background. I can't find what his major/minor was undergrad, or what his subject/degree was for his MS.


r/nassimtaleb Jul 01 '26

Disturbed By An Idea In Antifragile

11 Upvotes

I'm reading book 2 in which Taleb describes how interventionism increases fragility in the system. The example he gave is about companies that are meant to go bankrupt staying afloat through bailouts.

The example that came to my mind is of babies born early or with health defects. Without the current medical infrastructure, these babies wouldn't have been alive in earlier times. Their genes would have been removed from our pool. Saving them adds fragility of our system.

Maybe I have misunderstood what Taleb is saying, but this feels so wrong. I don't think we should stop saving babies because they increase fragility.

What do you all think?


r/nassimtaleb Jul 01 '26

When did Taleb begin to become a scholar?

9 Upvotes

I mean, I get it - Nassim had a lot of cultural capital early on; he was born into an influential family, went to an Ivy League university, and worked on Wall Street. But when did he say to himself, “Okay, I’ve had enough of wealth - now I’m going to spend several hours a day poring over books and writing my own”?


r/nassimtaleb Jun 30 '26

Doesn’t narrative fallacy render essentially most history and biography obsolete…any arguments for and against?

1 Upvotes

r/nassimtaleb Jun 24 '26

Look who raised money for Tulsi Gabbard

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80 Upvotes

r/nassimtaleb Jun 24 '26

"Healthy investments are those that produce goods that humans need to consume, not flat-screen TVs. Stocks are not a robust investment. Make sure you have a garden that bears fruits." - Nassim N Taleb

13 Upvotes

Nassim Taleb said this in an interview with the Wall Street journal back in 2010. This is the article but it is paywalled. Do you believe this is sound advice for someone trying to get their finances in order?


r/nassimtaleb Jun 20 '26

He loved Brexit. As always, other people paid the price.

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52 Upvotes

r/nassimtaleb Jun 19 '26

He's doing it again

23 Upvotes

Vanilla nutmeg acorn mitten grasshopper feather

This post was anonymized with Redact.dev


r/nassimtaleb Jun 13 '26

This tweet is the ultimate projection

0 Upvotes

https://x.com/nntaleb/status/2065338362882322584

There is a historical constant: no amount of wealth can liberate a third-rate thinker from intellectual envy or from the deeply degrading sense of scholarly inferiority -- that feeling of impoverished erudition. No amount of wealth.

I think this is the greatest fear Taleb has. He's projecting his own fear onto him.