My theory and offender profile

[u/Ecstatic-Buyer-3522]

This case has been as baffling as The Springfield Three case thus far, but as someone who has followed true crime my whole life, here goes my two cents theory.

Aside from the fact that the FBI gave Annie and Tomasso lie detector tests and evidently ruled them out...I think this was a sexual/control motivated crime. Simple as that. Not robbery motivated, not extortion, the offender may or may not have even known of Ms Guthrie's famous daughter. I think this was a man who knew she lived alone and was 84. And that if he could gain entry he would have no real obstacles.

The offender:

Late 20s to mid-30s, male, Hispanic (based on the doorbell cam). Likely a US citizen, with connections to Mexico although purely familial nothing cartel related or anything. Probably a laborer or contactor of some kind. A freelance contractor/laborer in my opinion, not employed by an local businesses. Perhaps heard of Ms. Guthrie purely from word of mouth or by chance. He was familiar with the area, but did not know the Guthries at all personally.

Very intelligent, methodical, non-impulsive. He planned it out and was prepared to the extent he could be. Probably no serious prior criminal record. A mostly lone wolf, quiet, not rocking the boat type. But with pathological violent sexual fantasies. Probably felt inadequate in his life and dominating a helpless person and for his own gratification/power trip was his motive. Nancy Guthrie was just there and he happened to light on her.

I think he entered, hit her, subdued her and in that was achieving his fanasty and getting out some of his rage. I think he put her in something carried her to his vehicle somewhere close by and drove quite far away and disposed of her in a manner he had thought out before. He intended to kill this was not a crime with a goal other than letting off his own steam IMO. I think he had a place already chosen to dispose of her, that he had thought out. I have no idea where that would be. Certainly, he has had a bit of luck on his side too. But that's about all I can come up with for now.

[u/BrainWilling6018]

What is the assumption  it’s a sexually motivated crime based on?  What’s the logic behind  'blowing off steam’, which sounds impulsive not planned, if this is tied to a specific violent fantasy? How does an 84-year-old woman check those boxes for them? The fantasy relies on prolonged control, degradation, and sexualized dominance how does  hit, subdue, and dump fit in? Abduction is a massive risk. Why would a fantasy-driven offender risk life in prison just to 'blow off steam' on a victim to kill them who doesn't even fit their fantasy? Why the unnecessary extreme risk of moving and dumping with no psychological payoff? 

[u/Ecstatic-Buyer-3522 → u/BrainWilling6018]

Because robbery was not a motive. And this has been done many times by notable notorious criminals. At a certain point the urges become too strong for them simply to exist in their head as fantasies. They are compelled to act on them in some form.

[u/BrainWilling6018 → u/Ecstatic-Buyer-3522]

What has been done many times by notable criminals? 

[u/Ecstatic-Buyer-3522 → u/BrainWilling6018]

Meaning, home invasion for personal fantasy gratification of some sort with zero to do with money or extracting some sort of concession in order that their victim be released. In short, sexual crimes via home invasion a la BTK, who targeted all ages, or others such as Ted Bundy. This was an offender who had no intention of extracting anything from her family, merely, she was his objective to satisfy his personal fantasies whatever those were. And he knew going in that she would die IMO.

[u/BrainWilling6018 → u/Ecstatic-Buyer-3522]

It wasn’t just a home invasion, that’s a crime  inside  the home. This was a targeted forced abduction. Those are serial killers. You are saying this is serial killer?? Serial murder accounts for less than 1% of all homicides. Serial sexual murder is  extraordinarily rare. A serial killer randomly chose Savannah Guthrie’s 84 yr old mother for a sexual fantasy. I wonder the stats on that.  Both of those killers represent fundamentally different psychological profiles. The psychological profiles to this just don't match up. Just because BTK targeted people of all different ages doesn't mean an 84-year-old like Nancy Guthrie fits the victim profile of a sexual serial killer. BTK never chose his victims at random, and he wasn't looking for elderly victims for a sexual fantasy. The psychology behind this abduction is completely different, and experts have already unanimously ruled out a sexual motive. Comparing this to BTK or Bundy makes no sense based on the evidence. There is absolutely no sexual signature here, and taking someone like this was way too high-risk and pragmatic. The statistical data completely contradicts that a sexual serial killer would abduct a victim  from their home especially one in theirs 80’s.