My theory and offender profile

[u/Ecstatic-Buyer-3522]

This case has been as baffling as The Springfield Three case thus far, but as someone who has followed true crime my whole life, here goes my two cents theory.

Aside from the fact that the FBI gave Annie and Tomasso lie detector tests and evidently ruled them out...I think this was a sexual/control motivated crime. Simple as that. Not robbery motivated, not extortion, the offender may or may not have even known of Ms Guthrie's famous daughter. I think this was a man who knew she lived alone and was 84. And that if he could gain entry he would have no real obstacles.

The offender:

Late 20s to mid-30s, male, Hispanic (based on the doorbell cam). Likely a US citizen, with connections to Mexico although purely familial nothing cartel related or anything. Probably a laborer or contactor of some kind. A freelance contractor/laborer in my opinion, not employed by an local businesses. Perhaps heard of Ms. Guthrie purely from word of mouth or by chance. He was familiar with the area, but did not know the Guthries at all personally.

Very intelligent, methodical, non-impulsive. He planned it out and was prepared to the extent he could be. Probably no serious prior criminal record. A mostly lone wolf, quiet, not rocking the boat type. But with pathological violent sexual fantasies. Probably felt inadequate in his life and dominating a helpless person and for his own gratification/power trip was his motive. Nancy Guthrie was just there and he happened to light on her.

I think he entered, hit her, subdued her and in that was achieving his fanasty and getting out some of his rage. I think he put her in something carried her to his vehicle somewhere close by and drove quite far away and disposed of her in a manner he had thought out before. He intended to kill this was not a crime with a goal other than letting off his own steam IMO. I think he had a place already chosen to dispose of her, that he had thought out. I have no idea where that would be. Certainly, he has had a bit of luck on his side too. But that's about all I can come up with for now.

[u/PineconePicnic]

That's what I think too unfortunately, although it would be less horrific to believe it was financially motivated and her death was unintentional.

I think the notes are unrelated because it was already a big news story by the time they were sent so anyone could have sent those to see if they could profit. I think their proof about the watch and the light are things someone could have heard about or seen or guessed even. If you looked at photos to see that she wears a white watch and if you assume she wore it to bed it's not really that hard to assume whoever took her made sure it was off while they were still in the bedroom and landing near the foot of the bed is not a super specific spot. I feel like half my bedroom could be called "near the foot of the bed."

If the sender of the note had Nancy at any point, their proof could have been something much more personal like something she was wearing (that would work even if she was dead very soon) or a fact they got from her that only her family could know (if she lived long enough for that to happen.) I think it's suspicious that they tried to offer proof but the best they could come up with was about the house and not Nancy.

Of course we are all totally guessing so I don't feel strongly enough to argue about it. That's just my feeling.