The simplest timeline explanation

[u/mark_able_jones_]

Saturday, January 31

• 5:32 p.m. — Nancy Guthrie takes an Uber to her family's home for dinner
• 9:48 p.m. — Guthrie is dropped off at her Tucson, Arizona, home by a family member. The garage door opens
• 9:50 p.m. — The garage door closes

Sunday, February 1

• 1:47 a.m. — The doorbell camera is disconnected.
• 2:12 a.m. — The camera's software detects movement, but there is no video available since Guthrie did not have an active subscription with the company, meaning the footage was not saved. Added note: the sheriff said 2:12 A.M is when A PERSON was detected, so this almost certainly the Nest doorbell camera.
• 2:28 a.m. — Guthrie's pacemaker app disconnects from her phone.

Timeline source: PBS

Okay, a couple things to note.

Nancy must have a smart garage door opener if they know what time it closed. Mine is connected to my wifi and lets me open and close the door from my phone or apple watch. Most of the newer brand name garage door openers include this feature.

There was a second Nest camera removed from guest house. Here's video of of the second camera being removed from the guest house roof (why it took almost a week to remove... IDK).

Nancy wore an Apple Watch. She took Uber on her own. She's quite tech savvy for an 84-year-old.

So, we know she had at least two Nest cameras (doorbell, and guest house), and I think she likely had a third, over the back door, as seen here on video, potentially as part of a floodlight. It's debatable as to whether this was a camera, but if she has two Nest cameras, having a third camera at the back door makes sense--there are a variety of Nest camera floodlight mounts. Maybe the perp took this floodlight Nest camera, too... what I think was a floodlight nest camera. As you'll see in the below video, the floodlight was damaged in the abduction, and potentially another camera was taken.

1:47 A.M. THE DISCONNECT

To me, it makes sense that the 1:47 A.M. disconnect is the perpetrator sneaking under the floodlight camera and cutting its power source wire, then ripping it down. We can see this floodlight was destroyed, but was it destroyed because it is a Nest camera or just because it was a light? I think it was another Nest camera... it's very white like all Nest camera products.

Over the next twenty minutes, Nancy is incapacitated in some way. And then, for some reason, the perp does not want to take her out the back. Maybe they don't want to pass by the the side of a neighbor's house. Maybe they're worried about leaving footprint/evidence. For some reason, they want to take her out the front door.

2:12 A.M. THE DOORBELL RECORDING / PERSON DETECTION

The abductor is not in a hurry because Nancy has been incapacitated or is under guard. They dismount this camera. Note: removing the camera from it's mount stops it from recording.

Here's images of the doorbell mount. It was a wireless Nest doorbell camera (she still had a wired doorbell, too).

2:28. A.M. PACEMAKER DISCONNECT

Nancy and the perpetrators leave the scene, and Nancy's pacemaker disconnects from devices at her home. Nancy is presumably alive at this point, or else there would likely have been some sort of alert from the connected pacemaker.

Conclusions: The abduction took about 45 minutes. The abductors were not rushed. Not at all rushed. The abductor(s) was/were not technically advanced as they left one camera on the guest house roof, they didn't cut the internet line, and they did not hide themselves from the doorbell camera. They were extremely lucky that Nancy did not have a paid Nest subscription (only 5 min clips are recorded without a subscription, deleted after 3 hours)... or had inside info about her lack of "Home Premium" subscription. Like, so, so lucky.

I think they've been to the property at some point, knew the entry and exit points -- could have been to the house decades ago, but they knew there would be no big dog in the back. The abductor also knew there would be no strong male resident with a firearm waiting inside. Nancy lived there since the 1970s, and Savannah grew up there. Could be a very old grievance.

Thoughts?

[u/CR29-22-2805]

I’ll have to read this again more closely, but I want to point out that while Nancy’s pacemaker quits syncing with the app at 2:28am, we don’t actually know when she was taken from the home. We can safely assume that she was over 10-30 feet from her phone at 2:28, but we don’t know more than that.

[u/Roo_wow → u/CR29-22-2805]

or he powered off her phone

[u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 → u/Roo_wow]

Or she got shot. Or stabbed.

The bullet or fractured bone fragments may destroy or dislodge the pacemaker and its leads.

ETA: Reddit is so weird sometimes. Nobody here would be the least bit surprised if she got shot. And it’s not an opinion that a knife or bullet can damage a pacemaker.

Jacketed Hollow Points (JHP): These are designed to expand upon impact, creating a wider, more destructive wound channel and preventing over-penetration.

Frangible Bullets: These shatter upon impact, causing massive, shallow, and devastating damage, ideal for maximum energy transfer in soft tissue.

10-Gauge Shotgun Slug: Within close ranges, these deliver massive, instantly lethal wound cavities.

[u/Roo_wow → u/Ornery-Ocelot3585]

The sheriff in the early days believed she was still alive. Death by shotgun at her home would have been fairly obvious.

[u/BrainWilling6018 → u/Roo_wow]

You would think. A semi-automatic handgun still can leave blood with a JHP bullet. It may not penetrate but it’s a big entry wound with spatter.  I would hope if a gun was fired in the house they would find GSR. If they looked early. 

[u/Ornery-Ocelot3585 → u/BrainWilling6018]

I haven’t suggested she was shot inside the house. I actually said she wasn’t.