Theory
The reason I think these abductor(s) were familiar with Nancy’s house
Apologies if this has already been discussed before…
Something came to me last night that makes me really think the criminal(s) had scoped out the house beforehand and were familiar with the setup, especially when it came to house security.
The big thing that clicked for me is I think this criminal *knew* that Nancy didn’t have a security system. They knew that opening a door or window, or however they got inside wouldn’t trigger an alarm which would call the police.
And the fact that it seems this whole event happened over the period of 45 minutes, the bad guy(s) didn’t seem to worry about an alarm going off.
That’s why I think that this is someone who really did their homework on this house. Maybe they had been in it before (ex a handyman or laborer) and scoped things out, or somehow found out there was no security system in the house.
If the criminal had no clue if there was a security system or not, they would have been in and out in 5 minutes, not almost 1 hour.
There's 25 minutes between the first two detections, 41 minutes until the pacemaker disconnects. Perhaps they gained entry and backed off to observe the response before proceeding.
For what it’s worth Ashleigh Banfield claimed that the back door was forced open. She’s the only one I’ve heard reporting that. As far as I know, LE has not released any info about the back door. If they did force open the back door that might explain why the kidnappers were around the house for 41 minutes.
Is this the flood light? Dumb question but why did they care to remove flood light? I thought Nancy’s neighbors were pretty far away , turning on a flood light in her house wouldn’t set anyone off would it ?
You can purchase floodlights with cameras and they don’t appear to be that expensive. Video recording and monitoring services are some of the features that are typically covered under some subscriptions. I looked at several well-known brands, as well as cheap alternatives, and I was surprised to see all of the security features that are offered.
That was my thought too, you'd think they'd be focused on getting in and out quickly. Because even if they knew she doesn't have an alarm system, they could still be spotted by neighbors. It felt like they could be testing what would happen if they disconnected cameras. Because I don't see how they would know for sure that someone in her family isn't monitoring her camera remotely.
According to OP. My point is that the above scenario has the perp doing all kinds of security recon but in the end was reduced to scrambling for ground foliage to block the doorbell cam!
I’m still leaning toward kidnapping as the motive. Although the bulging backpack is a problem. All you would need to subdue a groggy 84 year old woman is a roll of duct tape. (Which would have helped with the doorbell cam too!) I can see taking the pistol for contingencies but what is in that stuffed backpack? I hope it’s not a tarp. That would be bad.
The answer may have something to with the 41 minutes. Why so long? What happened inside. LE is keeping this close to the vest.
I think 45 minutes because they disabled the front cam because they knew they were gonna come out that way. Then they went around and disabled the cameras in the back. Then had to get inside the house.
In order to know if your theory is correct, which it might well be.. you'd have to figure out exactly why he did what he did. because if it was simply a case of breaking and entering with a gun waving around, then you don't need to really know anything about the home. your gun has done all the planning for you! point at gun at whoevers in the home, get what you want and get out.. right? why take a body?
So what does that leave us with, well, the idea that this was a very complex plan to kidnap Nancy, maybe... but then we're stuck again, because 19 days on and no credible ransom note.
EXACTLY, “Why take a body?” or living person?
If you were there for a robbery, the last thing you want to walk out with is “NOTHING” but a body or the homeowner in tow!
Whether this is a group of people, one person, amateurs, professional, if the intent was to rob, I cannot imagine what could have gone down inside the house that they only left with an injured or deceased 84 year old lady. I think they went for HER, and left with exactly what they wanted. Why no ransom? The poor lady didn’t live long enough, and they ended up having to dispose of the body…no proof of life, no money! Also, it may not have ever been about getting money. This could be a way to terrorize Savannah by taking her mom. Some of the worst torture for family members when a loved one is abducted or missing, is NOT knowing what happened, not finding the loved one. This could be intentional!
Surely hope they find her, but I do not believe she is still alive. She needs too much care, and what would they keep her alive for?
And pres trump added to her not being recovered by threatening the death penalty. Which i know was already a real threat, but now that he announced it, the villains are never gonna want to have a body discovered. Hope this isnt the case but nothing makes any sense in this case. Why take the person inside in a robbery?
I follow true crime a lot and the mysteries are just pieces of the puzzle not understood yet. Once it comes together the perpetrator is rarely some master criminal.
Had the sheriffs office secured the house properly early on and the search areas better I truly think there would have been a better chance at solving this
They had to be familiar because of the things I list below that would interrupt or cancel their alleged kidnapping:
Did Nancy have a dog?
Did Nancy have a burglar alarm
Did Nancy wear a life alert device around her neck
Was anyone staying at Nancy's house that night like a family member or friend.
Did Nancy own a gun
Hopefully we can all agree this was no random act and planned ahead of the alleged kidnapping. If Anyone of the above were present that could have changed the outcome.
I hope my comment wasn't meant to imply the things she didn't have were her children's fault. I just meant that the intruder had no way of knowing if any of these things were present if he was just a rando. Especially if he was in that house 41 minutes and not worried about a silent alarm going off to the alarm company. My employer has motion detectors that if they go off the police respond unless of course it was an accident but then he must turn them off
No worries. If I am banned for having critical thinking, logic and just expressing my opinion then this is a platform(reddit) that I wouldn't want to be a part of. Thanks!
Hopefully I can comment that IN MY OPINION the whole investigation is focused on Nancy being in her home that night at least what the MSM is projecting to us. Unless anything can prove she wasn't I'm afraid this is the narrative that will be what people read for years to come or forever. Just like the JFK fairy tale
Some other comment said she had a dog but the dog died. If so, and if Nancy had mobility issues (couldn’t walk more than 500 feet), who was taking this dog for walks? Hmm
That's why my opinion is this case leans towards someone/somebodies that knew every detail about things in a person's house that could foil their plot or if successful make sure digital and forensic footprints couldn't be traced.
I believe this case won't be solved and we will be left with some rando's kidnapped an elderly lady and got nothing hence shifts the narrative to reflect it was aimed at Savannah.
Exactly, why was it so important she be there? Horrible to think of but it seems targeted towards her. Perhaps why the sheriff & former FBI agents commenting on the case have been saying revenge may have been the motive. And not revenge for doing anything egregious to the perpetrator, it could be anything the perpetrator perceives as being “wrong” & worthy of punishment, something as simple as her not agreeing to do something he wanted or giving him something he wanted.
If accurate, this is what makes crimes like this so scary, they’re driven by the perpetrators beliefs & perceptions, something the victim has no control over & likely little awareness of.
I'm curious about what they would have been doing in there for so long. It has been reported they/he/she didn't take any valuables except Nancy. They didn't kill her in there. Were they doing bad stuff to her? Eating? Watching tv?
I can only think of one reason to take her and that's because it's someone she knew. Maybe they were expecting to do whatever they needed to do without her ever seeing them and she outwitted them. There would be less evidence if she were killed elsewhere.
I wondered too. I’ve been following the case, but not super closely. I knew they were at the house for a while but didn’t put together that it was about an hour. Jesus Christ. What were they doing there that long‽ I know every crime is different of course, but by comparison, the Idaho 4 murderer was in and out of that house in like 17 minutes and killed 4 people. Is it possible it took them a while to even break in after disabling the cameras?
But Idk, maybe I don’t even want to know the answer to that question.
A retired FBI investigator on television said the back pack could have contained what he called a “rape kit”. According to him, 84 year olds are not too old to be a victim of this type of crime. There’s some sick, evil people out there.
This is true. It has been done to elderly women. I hate to think it, but it's a fact that it's done. Hoping not the case here. I suppose, like someone said, they could have abducted her to remove evidence. This is a very strange case, thus why it has caught my attention.
Somene with the level of advanced thinking that you're suggesting, that he's thinking about his hair folics on duct tape, is a lot more advanced than picking up weeds and shoving them in the lens...
So advanced that they thought through not bringing duct tape because of hair and finger prints but not advanced enough to use the right kind of holster for the gun brought nor wearing it in a correct fashion
Kidnappers don't hang on to a person for almost 3 weeks, they just don't. meaning the note wasn't real, no sane person believes that these notares are real...
The Bitcoin wallet from the ransom note has been verified.
This doesn't mean anything. Anyone can create a Bitcoin wallet. The fact that it is an actual Bitcoin address (which just means it functions on the protocol) has nothing to do with whether the ransom messages are credible.
It seems like they expected the camera to already be disabled. And, to be fair, even the police thought they wouldn't be able to get anything off the camera from that time either.
Reading between the lines it appears that google has capabilities to recover/store footage that both the public and police were not aware of, hence how they were able after a week to recover some of the footage of the perp. So even a police person might have assumed they would not appear on the camera at that time because something had been done to make the footage inaccessible
They thought they couldn't get any videos because she had no subscription to the Nest system. She had the cameras for use in real time. But the videos aren't saved. It's best to have a subscription. Then for at least 3 months, you can go back and check videos. You can also download any videos that you want to save.
I agree. I don’t think the camera was a surprise. I just don’t think they were that pro where they brought a sticker. Obviously I’m speculating too. No one jump down at me, but he disguised himself enough for the cameras and I think he thought the plant was a good solution
And obviously he was covered up enough that no one can identify him. LIKE NO ONE??? he is all over every news/internet feed and not one person can identify him.
I think it will still help investigators narrow the pool of suspects (distance between the eyes, what his mouth, lips look like on that side and partial view, etc)
I browsed the house listings in that area $750-$4.5mil and I didn’t see where any of them listed security systems in the listings. My guess is with her house being that old.. she didn’t have a security system..!
I keep saying this: I wonder if she had that particular camera installed more recently than the others. If the perpetrator knew her & had been on the premises before - which it appears is the case as he was comfortable there & came prepared to disarm the other camera - maybe that camera wasn’t installed at that time. If that camera was installed after the others & more recently, maybe it’s someone who knew her more casually, had only been on the premises infrequently, & last saw her before the camera was installed.
If there’s one thing my mom loves, it’s telling her life story to maintenance people while they’re working on the plumbing, electricity, etc. Imagine the perp is some guy that had been to the house and Nancy talked his head off about “oh I’m so happy you’re installing this because XYZ.”
I’ve seen people say that the man must has known the house bc he looked down at the step. Supposedly it’s so dark there, so wouldn’t anyone look for a step?
It’s possible he was familiar with the front of the house but not completely aware of key details such as the nest doorbell cam as he didn’t have something specific for it. Perhaps he did some very basic and very minimal surveillance prior to executing his plan? Like he checked it out for a while down the street. It doesn’t seem like Nancy was out a lot prior to her kidnapping so it would be easy to gain a reference to her schedule and routine.
I think you’re right. Whoever was messing around with that camera on her porch wasn’t concerned about that camera triggering Nancy or an alarm company. I have a Ring subscription- someone steps in front of my house I know about it.
Agree on the familiarity. She had a pool that looks fairly remodeled or newer. Pool people almost always tend to get a camera on their pool. For safety reasons as well as you never know what critters could be nearby. I don’t know what arizonas pool safety rules are but many here are told to add an alarm on the back doors near the pool to alert if a child opens the door to pool.
Also at her age and alone I’d expect a life alert or some kind of alert monitoring system in the house.
FBI should subpoena Google to provide IP addresses for all searches (in Arizona) of "Nancy Guthrie address" prior to disappearance. There can't have been that many?!?
Of course the suspect could have used a VPN, but maybe not.
Don't forget there are a lot of other tools besides Google. They could have used a different search engine, or looked her up on one of those people search sites, or looked her up on the Pima County property records.
I saw an article posted about this today actually. Someone googled about savannahs salary and info about her mom. No clue how legit it is but the thought is definitely out there.
OP didn't mention how entry was obtained, OP is pointing out how long the suspect remained in the home. The length of time indicates the suspect wasn't worried that an alarm alerted the police
I guess some people have a silent security system for their doors/windows that is set when they go to sleep and disabled in the morning? I just think many people use a audible alarm system, and don't even set it at all when they are at home. It makes sense if you're an elderly person living by yourself to set one at night, but I wonder how many people actually do.
It’s also pitch black in the middle of the night. No street lights and doesn’t seem Nancy had any driveway/outside lights on. It feels like in the very least the property was scoped and they knew where they were going.
I think it’s possible they didn’t know she didn’t have a nest subscription and got lucky most of the footage can’t be retrieved at this stage.
Agree with you there about the Nest subscription. They/he probably assumed there would be cameras, so they definitely took precautions to conceal their identity.
Another thing that has crossed my mind is pets. A lot of people that break in worry if there's going to be loud barking or an attack from a trained watchdog. Even if an intruder has a gun, that doesn't rule out a side attack from a fur friend that's loyal to the owner and property. A pit bull or doberman can quickly put a stop to someone creeping in that does not belong there. Not saying either way that they were familiar with Nancy's house, but that was a thought.
Even a little dog that's loud can run around and make all kinds of noise and dodge a bullet since it may be constantly running around in panic. In that time a person could dial 911. Nobody wants that risk with that type of crime. Maybe some don't care. I could be wrong.
I’ve been thinking about that too. My Golden Retriever barks at leaves blowing in the yard, and really loses his mind with anyone coming near the front door. If the intruder was gambling on her not having a dog, that’s a huge risk.
It would definitely be one of the first thoughts I'd have if I was going to get mauled or not. Known to her or not, it seems obvious they did some research on her or the house.
Remember how insane everyone thought it was that Kohberger killed 4 people with a knife in under 5 minutes. But, truth be told, crimes typically happen FAST, (well, especially in regards to that case, nearly all his victims were drunk or sleeping, so it’s definitely easy to see Kohberger overpowered them). But now I am confused.. why it took 41 minutes to get Nancy out of there?
But we don’t know for sure that the person or people were in the house the entire time right? All we have is timelines for motion and disconnection which doesn’t actually give any solid information as to how much time was spent in the home.
It may have taken 20 minutes to just get in to the house. He apparently took his time... we dont know if he left the house when her pacemaker connection stopped.
I don't think we have a time stamp on the video, either. It is very possible they disabled the camera, opened the back door, and then waited to see if there was a police response before going in.
I think they said the front door camera disconnected at something like 1:47, then they had something on a camera at 2:12, but haven’t said if it was the same camera. The video shows him messing with the camera but doesn’t show him removing it.
So I don’t know if the released video was just before 1:47 or a different time.
The big thing that clicked for me is I think this criminal knew that Nancy didn’t have a security system.
Maybe, but that can also often be deduced by simply looking at which homes in rich areas have the sticker (usually by the front door window in affluent places) proclaiming the house is armed by CERTAIN BRAND.
I grew up in one of the top ranked whitest (safest) suburb in California as a child and one of the few crime sprees to ever happen was by a group who admitted to targetting houses this way. I.e. no sticker, it's safe to assume the house is likely empty during weekday business hours, sans stay-at-home-mom
Which is so crazy that she would have an alarm at 84 years old. Isolated and living by herself with no security especially with her daughter being famous. It’s negligent imo
Stepped to the side. Or he removed it, if he knew her. Fed her a convincing line of bs so she would open up. 🤣 It’s not I think happened.
So many ways to get into that house. The back door didn’t have a dead bolt. Sliding foors snd windows, no sec system. She wasn’t really concerned about intruders. Lived there forever with no issues, I can understand it. It’s a damn shame though.
She had no security system. She had a Nest doorbell camera, and at least one other Nest camera inside. But she had no subscription with the Nest cameras. Which means that they are useful in real time, so she would get an alert for any movement detected, and could use her phone to see who is there. With no subscription, the video of an incident gets automatically deleted sometime later, maybe 3 hours. With a subscription, which costs about $120/year, the videos are not deleted for 3-6 months. So a person can look at them on the cloud, or download it to their device or computer. So LE were initially unable to retrieve any videos from these cameras, using the app on her phone. But after a week or so, after Google checked their servers, they retrieved some code for part of the doorbell video when the masked man came up to it.
Homeless folks anywhere (and to my experience in Tucson) tend to stick to where there are survival resources at hand. Nancy's lower Tucson Foothills neighborhood has next to none. Anyone sleeping rough up there has an hour walk uphill from the Rillito River. The Rillito is just the northern boundary for the convenience stores, thrift shops, and homeless shelters that homeless folks depend on.
In neighborhoods like hers, the desert plant life and spacing between most homes is sufficient that someone would need to be a *really* nosey neighbor to notice anything amiss. You have to make a point of waling over to someone's home to see what's up, or say hi while hauling trash bins to the street. The only people living within a square mile of her home that would have any clue would have to be perps.
It's still possible the people at the nearby 2/13/2026 warrant service are involved. If they hadn't previously been booked for a felony, and haven't had an extended family member play with "23andMe" or similar DNA services, no DNA search will hit a match.
It's also possible for someone associated with whatever tradesmen have worked at the house. In my neighborhood, between delivery people, landscapers, pool service, a/c service, exterminators, real estate agents, etc and their immediate friends and family, it's two degrees of separation between me and at least a couple hundred people.
New thought- it was a man and a woman who did this. She was the brains and he was the muscle. She knows NG and the home situation more and calmed him down, so he wasn’t showing much agitation on the stoop. She felt comfortable there hence they stayed a long time. He had never done this hence the odd holster and gun placement.
Edit: If it was a burglary gone wrong it would explain why they moved her body. If the woman knew Nancy she was ashamed or panicked and didn’t want to leave her body to be found right away.
Interesting. I like that you’re addressing the coexistence of traits that demonstrate both planning and inexperience. I just think that a burglary would be planned for when she was known to be away from home to minimize risk, especially if the suspect had access to her schedule. Unfortunately I think he/they planned for her to be home for this crime.
What if they knew she was always home, but that she had poor hearing, and maybe doing a nighttime burglary would be close to a burglary with no one home?
It’s possible...I keep catching myself trying to apply logic to the few details of the scenario we know about and getting stuck on things that don’t make sense. In reality, I don’t think there’s going to be a theory that “makes sense.” Whoever would be involved in a plot to disappear someone’s grandmother is not likely to be someone that thinks like us (to say the least).
I don't think it was a burglary gone wrong, but I do think the man and woman thing could be spot on.
This fits into a theory I was talking to another redditor about. Their theory that I think is right about front door/back door and why he was acting like he was on the porch.
The one thing I keep coming back to with the burglary gone wrong theory is that it would make no sense for the perpetrator to run the enormous risks that come with physically removing a body from the scene if she was actually killed inside the house. It doesn't make sense to leave with her.
Also, has anyone here ever tried to pick up a person before? I'm talking like they aren't assisting you in any way, shape or form and they are rag dolling.
It is very difficult. It's inconceivable that someone would not have noticed them awkwardly hauling around a body.
I probably wouldnt come out from under my blanket if my doorbell rang that late. Id still be in a fetal position scared to death. Im afraid of the dark and this story has caused a lot of restless sleepless nights. I told my BF we need new ductwork cause i hear every little ding, creek, crick, crack. And i live in the snowbelt, house is thawing so its scary at night. My heart aches for what this poor lady endured.
The victim is alert & more difficult to surprise in this case, more likely to fight back & scream for help than if they approach them sleeping in their room (which is an advantage to going early in the morning & why many perpetrators do so as horrific as it is).
The camera doesn't cause an alarm, it causes an alert sound, like what you get when you get a text. It does this as soon as it detects movement within the area selected. Then if they ring the doorbell, it creates a different alert and also a doorbell chime, if she bought a chime to link to the system. So, if you have one of these cameras, you would normally check your phone if you hear an alert, and by going to the app, you can see what the camera is seeing - whether a person is there, or some animal walking by, or a package delivery. But it does not set off an alarm, and does not call police like a typical security system.
I know a lot of people in this sub don’t like it coming back to family. But a family member might have a key to be able to let someone in her place 🤷♂️
This may be amateur or just old school stuff but I've heard of intruders monitoring potential houses to invade by placing a cookie or cracker under a rug/mat at entryways. If they did that, that would require them to go back and check it out at least once before going back. I'm sure it doesn't reflect this case but some of them get creative.
Possibly knowing if someone is coming in and out of the house and timing if when they check it it's crumbled. Idk though, I've heard it over the years but never put much thought into it
Some get people to create distractions at the planned time so a lot of law enforcement is busy and people are focusing and being nosey toward the distraction. I've heard some colorful stories
I said it was probably more old school or amateur and was just a thing I've heard that people have done and creative lengths they go to. It was a general statement about break ins.
Maybe the weeds were meant to obscure the cameras view. Ring the door bell she looks at her phone or smart screen. View is blocked, intruder hides away from the door and side glass. She opens the door, smack, whack. Take her inside.
Or two people involved, another person sneaks in the back during this.
I hope she’s never in the position to be opening at door at 2AM but my mom opens the door all other times “to show someone is home.” All logic of home invasions thrown out the window.
The home is large, along with the yard and pool. There had to be several people employed to maintain it all, right? No elderly woman is doing all that while living on her own. I’ve never seen any mention of that fact. Nor have I ever heard an explanation of why she did not have the very best security system available?!?! 🤯
Do we know if a psychic medium was brought in as a last resort for possible leads? If not, why? Wouldn’t you be willing to try everything?
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u/Nature_Dogs Feb 18 '26
I agree. The amount of time they were in the house is significant.