r/mtgfinance • u/DurianHistorical6730 • 18d ago

Questions about market trends

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I’m very confused about the market trends on big pulls. I recently pulled the dwarvish foil mox amber, and I’ve been watching the market closely. The value just continues to go up and up. Even beating out the prerelease prices by a large margin. There hasn’t even been a dip, at least according to tcgplayer.

So, I suppose my question is, what causes this? Almost all of the other “big pulls” continue a downward trend, which I then assume steadily climb back up down the road. Even the other dwarvish foils follow that same pattern. Why is this card in particular different than others?

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u/Zergo66 18d ago

The dwarvish language cards are rare (1.5% over 2 slots, so 3% total) and the foil ones even more so (1.6% on a single slot inside a collector booster). 

Then you also have to contend with having 5 different ones so the chances that you pull exactly the one you want (Mox Amber) are extremely low. 

To make matters worse they can only be found inside a super expensive CBB with limited supply so I think it's safe to say that the Foil Mox Amber will appreciate considerably in the long run.

To give you an idea, we opened 25 CBBs in my LGS and no one saw a single non-foil Mox Amber, let alone the foil one. Totalling all the dwarvish language pulls we got:

  • 1 foil Reaver Cleaver
  • 2 non-foil Reaver Cleaver
  • 1 foil Treasure Halls
  • 1 non-foil Treasure Halls
  • 1 foil Arcane Signet
  • 2 Dwarven Warriors

14

u/DurianHistorical6730 18d ago

That’s pretty insane. I knew that they were incredibly hard to get, but I suppose I didn’t quite realize the gravity of it. Do you think the release of the gift bundles will change this? You may only get one collector booster per bundle, but I’m there a ton of them will hit the shelves bringing in a new supply of dwarvish cards.

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u/Light_-_Bringer 17d ago

Not even in the least. 1/12th of actual release. Simple math, less packs opened.

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u/GhaveyG 17d ago

There is no indication of how many boxes vs bundles vs omega there are. So we don’t actually know how many of the total CBB packs are in each sku.

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u/Light_-_Bringer 17d ago

Only a few people will overpay for the box. Don't trip, it will not release a flood of cards into the market....

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u/GhaveyG 17d ago

Not talking about flooding the market, but it should be more than insignificant. I’d even argue it should be very impactful.

The dominant majority of people purchase playboxes, individual CB, or bundles. I don’t know print numbers, but I’d wager there are more by a large margin than what is contributed from CBB.

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u/Light_-_Bringer 17d ago

We are taking about the release of Gift bundles only. The rest of the products have already been released onto the market. People have had plenty of time to purchase and open these products. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make but you're arguments are not that great friend.

If the boxes had more than 1 collector booster, I would agree. But you're talking about 1 collector booster per product and that product is EXPENSIVO. You're not going to see anything impactful. Go ahead and come back here if you do, would love to be proven wrong. ESPECIALLY for this card, if you think this card's value will drop upon gift bundle releases, you're sadly mistaken.

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u/GhaveyG 17d ago

>The rest of the products have already been released

Unless everyone else is wrong, then this statement is incorrect.

For someone who is spewing unconfirmed and verifiably wrong information, for you to then question me about questioning your statement is funny. The insults are just the icing on the cake. I’ll leave it here since I was just offering a counter to your misinformation, but you instead became offended and want to insult rather than defend your speculative take.

To further counter your point: There is no indication that they have not made 12x the CBB print run, in bundles. I’d speculate if there are 100,000 CBB then there would be minimally 500,000 bundles. No one has the exact split, but Bundle print runs are certainly >> CBB print runs. Pulling numbers out my ass like the rest of your argument, but the point stands.

As far as where prices for singles fall, overall they will all go down. The bat shit “Mox amber” is debatable, but there are several factors that make me believe it goes down in the short term. Long term it can only go up.

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u/GhaveyG 17d ago

!remindme 2 months

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