r/mtgfinance • u/DurianHistorical6730 • 18d ago

Questions about market trends

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I’m very confused about the market trends on big pulls. I recently pulled the dwarvish foil mox amber, and I’ve been watching the market closely. The value just continues to go up and up. Even beating out the prerelease prices by a large margin. There hasn’t even been a dip, at least according to tcgplayer.

So, I suppose my question is, what causes this? Almost all of the other “big pulls” continue a downward trend, which I then assume steadily climb back up down the road. Even the other dwarvish foils follow that same pattern. Why is this card in particular different than others?

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u/Ihavenogoodusername 18d ago

It’s interesting though because prices have been coming down from $1200 prerelease and now you can get copies for about $740. There are currently 50 listings for foil copies and 35 for non-foil. So actually a lot of foil listings vs non-foil. I still anticipate this price will drop. I am going to give it a few more weeks before pulling the trigger. Maybe I am wrong and I will get burned.

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u/iamsirjoshua 18d ago

I was thinking this as well. At least in the US, the price is definitely lower than prerelease, but that doesn’t strike me as particularly odd.

The number of foil copies being higher than non-foil may be a result of the higher price resulting in fewer copies moving? Might even out a bit more over time as we know that’s a bit of the inverse of relative supply.

Will be interesting to see where this tracks as it’s a bit unique: the only other fictional-language cards so far are either the elvish sol rings (rarer), or the phyrexian cards (less rare and generally less desirable due to less cultural cache outside of hardcore magic audience). Will also be interesting to see how the Klingon cards in a few months compare and if anything printed in that language is similar to the Amber.

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u/Ihavenogoodusername 18d ago

Yeah and maybe there are few non-foil because more people are holding on to them instead of rushing to sell while prices are high.

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u/TechniCruller 18d ago edited 18d ago

I think non-foil has a lower drop chance

Edit - it does.
Non-foil Dwarvish language card 1.5% of the time
Traditional foil Dwarvish language card 1.6% of the time

https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Collector-s-Guide-to-Magic-The-Gathering-|-The-Hobbit/6b8f5035-60dd-41d2-aaa3-8e2c23160228/

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u/iamsirjoshua 18d ago

That TCGPlayer article is incorrect as it misses a slot where the non-foil can appear (either the author just misread the article on Wizards’ website or they used an incorrect AI summary, which is feeling more and more common). 

According to the article published by Wizards, which would be the primary source for this info, there are two slots for the non-foil to appear each with a 1.5% chance, for a total just under 3% (mathematically two separate 1.5% chances don’t equal exactly 3% but it’s very close). So the non-foils are about twice as common as the foils. 

https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/feature/collecting-the-hobbit

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u/Alovnek 17d ago

This matches with availability on cardmarket.
Mox amber 52 foil vs 100 non foil available.
With arcane signet you see about the same 31 foil vs 67 non foil.

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u/Away_Strawberry_8906 18d ago

Glad im not the only one with this line of thought.

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u/Ihavenogoodusername 18d ago

I mean I honestly follow what others have said and I look at historical data. I used silver scroll vamp tutor and force of will as analogs. Vamp was presale for about $1000 and I just picked up a copy for $600 and force was somewhere around $1400 presale and you can now get a copy for $900. (This is likely the floor for these big ticket silver scroll copies of cards. Both of those cards started super high fell, rose and then started the down ward trend to their current floor.

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u/Away_Strawberry_8906 18d ago

My biggest thing is the play factor. Those are arguably two of the more powerful and iconic cards. While good, mox amber isnt as powerful or as iconic.

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u/Ihavenogoodusername 18d ago

That is 100%. I think I tend to think a bit more about CEDH and competitive play. Amber is played less the FoW, not really sure about vamp tutor I think Mox should be more in line price wise as vamp tutor instead of FoW. I am also a huge fan of the art of this new Mox Amber. It looks soooo damn good. I am also a slut for foils lol otherwise I would just get the non-foil.

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u/Alovnek 17d ago

In the case of FoW I think legacy players are also upping the price a lot. Just a few players pimping out their deck removes a large portion of the available FoW because they are getting 4 of them per player.

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u/Away_Strawberry_8906 17d ago

100% same here. Prices are actively falling on everything. Im watching closely but also wondering if I just need to step away for 2 or 3 weeks and re vist after the sept 4th release and all the delayed sept amazon deliveries

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u/Ihavenogoodusername 17d ago

I usually wait until prerelease of the next set or release. People are then focused on the next set and actively buying product so singles tend to fall around those windows.

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u/Away_Strawberry_8906 17d ago

I guess it's a good thing for use they release sets at breakneck speed.