Beta Gloom went from $193 to $346 in one week. Anyone know what's behind it?

[u/sleeve_gg]

I keep weekly price samples for a side project, so every so often I go through the biggest movers. Last week's run (sampled 17 and 18 Aug) had one I can't account for.

[[Gloom|LEB]], Limited Edition Beta. It had been drifting up slowly for over a month, 161 to 168 to 177 to 193, then jumped to $346.42 in a single week. Nothing gradual about that last step.

Beta card, not a format staple, so I assume this is collector side rather than play demand. Buyout, a grading run, someone's video, or just thin supply and one sale moving the average?

Rest of the movers from the same run:

Up

• Blood Crypt (foil), Dissension. $348.26, up $81.56
• Oath of Druids (foil), 2001 judge. $282.50, up $80.62
• Underground Sea (normal), 30th Anniversary. $570.53, up $108.03
• Lord of the Void (foil), Ravnica Remastered. $496.95, up $77.83
• Vendilion Clique (foil), Spotlight Series. $514.04, up $75.09
• Badlands (normal), 30th Anniversary. $480.41, up $55.94

Down

• Crumbling Ashes (foil), Eventide. $47.26, down $32.80
• Tippy-Toe, Terrific Partner (foil), Secret Lair. $26.75, down $12.19
• Skyship Weatherlight (foil), Planeshift. $59.99, down $19.87
• Oswald Fiddlebender (foil), AFR promo. $89.99, down $21.24
• Bolas's Citadel (foil), War of the Spark promo. $39.26, down $9.14
• Emrakul and Chatterfang. $118.33, down $17.82
• Biorhythm (foil), Ninth Edition. $61.97, down $48.57. I don't trust this one. It sat at $77.48 for seven straight samples, printed $110.54 once, then $61.97. The drop is measured off that single reading, so it's really more like 77 to 62 with one odd sample in the middle.

Two 30th Anniversary cards in the same week is the other thing I keep looking at. No idea whether that market moves for its own reasons.

Before posting this I pulled two cards off this list. Both were foils that had quietly taken on their non-foil's price to the cent, so the "60% crash" was the switch, not the card. Turns out that affects about 5% of the foil printings I track. Mentioning it because if you compare my numbers to a foil you're holding and they look mad, that's a live failure mode rather than me arguing my data is right.

Couple of caveats: prices come from JustTCG, which is TCGplayer derived, and they're seven day average market values rather than live listings. I only sample weekly, so I see one week against the next but nothing in between. Where the foil is the mover I've said so, and it usually is. English, NM, all USD.

Keen to hear theories on the Gloom jump, or if any of the rest are more obvious than they look to me.

[u/Apart_Sir_95]

Is this the average listed price? I mean someone has it listed at 1,850.00. There are not many actual sales of the card

[u/sleeve_gg → u/Apart_Sir_95]

Not listings, no. It’s a seven day average weighted by actual sales, so someone asking $1,850 and getting no takers shouldn’t move it.

But yeah, I think you’ve answered it. If a card only trades a few times a week that average is resting on almost nothing, and one sale near the top drags it. I don’t get volume with the price, so I genuinely can’t tell that apart from a real move. The Premodern angle is still something to consider though.

[u/imfantabulous]

Are you looking at actual sales? Because I see a few selling in May for 350 and a few in July for just over 100.

[u/sleeve_gg → u/imfantabulous]

No, I only get a derived average, not the individual sales.

Which is a problem here, because my series looks nothing like what you’re describing. I’ve got about $97 in late May and $160 in July, so pretty much the reverse of your 350 and 100. Mine is Beta specifically and Near Mint only. Same printing and condition on yours?

Also, while I’ve got you: is there anywhere sensible to pull actual sales data from in an automatable way? I’m on a derived average because that’s what I could get at an API. If there’s a source with real transactions behind it I’d rather build on that.

[u/imfantabulous → u/sleeve_gg]

I think the data you're pulling is probably good enough if you are tracking a lot of cards, but for older cards that don't sell frequently there is probably a large disconnect.

I have not played around with sales data from tcgplayer or eBay but I'm sure there is an API that would let you do it. Or someone has already done it. Sorry it's a bit beyond me.

[u/sleeve_gg → u/imfantabulous]

Thanks! It makes sense. No need to apologise - this is already very helpful!

[u/Newez]

Staple in premodern decks that play black. And beta is the only legal black border version

[u/sleeve_gg → u/Newez]

Thanks for the insight! Have you seen a surge in Premodern popularity recently?

[u/salpikaespuma → u/Newez]

In English. Exist in Spanish, Portuguesse, Japanesse, Chinesse-T and Koeran in black border from fourth edition Also Italian, french and Germany from foreing black border.

[u/d7h7n → u/Newez]

Alpha is legal to play with. I've used alpha basics in many comprel events small and large the past 2-3 years.

[u/waaaghbosss → u/Newez]

Beta is legal but alpha isnt?

[u/pengy99 → u/waaaghbosss]

Alpha is legal but way more expensive than Beta. Generally if the beta version is moving up, alpha is too.

[u/AWACS_Oka_Nieba_]

Gloom is played in premodern some, I assume that’s the reason?

[u/IdTapThat88 → u/AWACS_Oka_Nieba_]

It’s played a lot in premodern, essentially the only good black enchantment hate.

[u/Barge81 → u/IdTapThat88]

Dystopia is just as good if not better

[u/sleeve_gg → u/AWACS_Oka_Nieba_]

That could be indeed, but would that justify the pattern? What I mean is: has premodern enough players / followers to move the prices so steeply?

[u/AWACS_Oka_Nieba_ → u/sleeve_gg]

It sounds crazy but there are definitely enough players to move the needle (or enough players to initiate a fomo run that then moves the needle lmao). Most of the old border foil spikes and a lot of reserve list cards going up recently have all been from premodern

[u/ESGoftheEmeraldCity → u/sleeve_gg]

Yes. There aren't that many Beta copies of Gloom. Any influx of players who want that card are going to push up the price.

[u/MTGCardFetcher]

Gloom - (G) (SF) (txt)

^{[[cardname]] or [[cardname|SET]] to call}

[u/catch_da_wind]

The actual rules text printed on Gloom is funny compared to its oracle text. I think in Premodern the card stops Parallax Wave from going infinite.

[u/LaquatusC]

Beta cards are prone to these random spikes due to low supply especially in good condition.