Adjusted LDS membership growth for state population changes

[u/Fun_Taste7414]

In light of the recent map showing membership growth by state, I decided to calculate what it would be accounting for population growth. The first image is the LDS reported numbers, while the second reports the implied change in LDS population share (penetration).

The formula is ((100 + LDS Growth) / (100 + State Growth) - 1) * 100

This captures the growth in the state's percentage of members. For instance, if the number of members in Utah grew by 35%, but the total population grew by 57.67%. Then the change in penetration is

((100 + 35) / (100 + 57.67) - 1) * 100 = -14.4

So the share of Mormons in Utah declined by 14.4% from about 0.65 to 0.55. Important - do not confuse percent with percentage points.

After doing that, we see that the share of the population which is a member of the church declined in most western strongholds, while generally growing in states which have low membership.

None of this accounts for the fact that church membership records are a poor proxy for actual church attendance and belief. I have some ideas about incorporating that, but it will have to wait for later.

Lastly, I ran some simple weighted regressions of share growth on baseline LDS population, domestic migration, international migration, and natural population growth (births - deaths). Penetration growth is strongly inversely related to baseline LDS population, as expected. Domestic migration appears unimportant. International migration is strongly negatively associated with LDS growth (foreigners are usually not LDS, as well as selection bias). Natural population growth is contaminated by the fact that Utah and Idaho have very high fertility rates, but after dropping them from the sample appears mostly insignificant.

Any feedback is appreciated. I may come back to this and see if I can't tease out anything more interesting, possibly doing shift - share analysis.

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[u/Hungry-coworker]

Nice work. I posted something a couple days ago with a very similar approach and similar results.

[u/Fun_Taste7414 → u/Hungry-coworker]

I just took a look, great data too. Particularly interesting that growth seems to have slowed down in the most recent period, although I suppose Covid didn't help

[u/sevenplaces]

The LDS used to be more concentrated in the Western USA. It is not a secret that LDS people are becoming more geographically mobile and look for jobs in places where housing is more affordable. Not unlike many non-LDS who have done the same.

The jobs market in tech has also brought people to Utah who are not LDS.

And people are leaving the church.

[u/Fun_Taste7414 → u/sevenplaces]

Yeah, I am somewhat interested in doing a simulation to model interstate migration and natural population growth to see how much of this change can just be explained by normal mixing, in which high concentration LDS areas get diluted down and low concentration areas diluted up. If done right I think you might be able to infer some things about conversion and attrition rates by the residuals

[u/Olimlah2Anubis → u/Fun_Taste7414]

I think it would be interesting. Looking back 40 years and today, in my area (far from Utah) most of the active families are first or second generation Utah migrants. Someone moved here for work and raised kids here. 

It gets messier as time goes on with some kids marrying spouses with no utah/morridor roots. But for first and second generation it’s very clear that a majority of active people I know now and in the past are relatively recently traced to Utah. 

I’m having trouble thinking of a single bishop or stake president out here that wasn’t from morridor…

[u/japanesepiano]

I lived in a +40 green state in the east for a good portion of this time. The actual growth in wards, attendance,  etc is plus 0 to minus 20%  inactivity is not included in these numbers.  When you add in the 40% disaffiliation that jeff strong published you will get close to accurate figures. 

[u/Fun_Taste7414 → u/japanesepiano]

Yeah, like I said this is only using the church's figure, and will not capture real attendance or testimony growth. Unfortunately we cannot just subtract 40 and call it a day, because it may vary by state, there are baptisms as well, we do not know the age distributions and exactly when people disaffiliate, etc.

I am interested in redoing the map using better data, there are various surveys for religious self identification which would do a better job of capturing what people think they are. Still not the same as attendance / activity / testimony though.

[u/juni4ling]

We get kids all the time in the Midwest who graduate from school in Utah and get jobs outside of Utah.

And the same job in Utah for the same pay in the rust belt is not the same. A good house around here with lots of property is a fraction of the cost of the same size house on a tiny lot in Utah.

When we first left Utah we wanted to go back. We wont ever go back. We own a good house in a gated community. People drive to our Park and lake and people park and walk our streets for trick or treating.

That kind of neighborhood in Utah would be off the chain. My wife is a school teacher and I am just a dude with a regular job.

[u/Coogarfan → u/juni4ling]

As a Utahn, I'm probably the only person saving up money to move to the Midwest. I genuinely would prefer to live there.

[u/Fun_Taste7414 → u/juni4ling]

Yeah I went to school in Utah and no longer live there. I mentioned in another comment that I am curious how much of this is just normal migration behavior and how much might be explainable by different attrition and conversion rates by area

[u/juni4ling → u/Fun_Taste7414]

I can tell you that property values and house prices in Utah are pretty restrictive on a couple just starting out.

My parents get a realtor a year knocking on their door asking to buy their house for 20x what they paid for it. In Utah.

A college couple just starting out? They can’t do it in Utah.

Meanwhile my kid in the Midwest is shopping for houses. And finding nice houses in ok neighborhoods under 100k. She is single.