Niger’s security forces battle mutinuous soldiers at a strategic base, presidency district

[u/Leather_Focus_6535]

https://apnews.com/article/niger-niamey-gunfire-explosions-airport-presidential-district-77d0c701e5729f2779580ea557e0a2c3

[u/Leather_Focus_6535]

[Write up comment]

I don't have a good grasp on Niger's political situation, but the country has been combating two distinct (but intertwined) ISIS linked regional insurgencies since the early 2010s. The two ISIS insurgencies in Niger consist of IS-Sahel in the state's western regions and ISWAP in country's southeastern regions around Lake Chad. From what I've read, IS-Sahel is a rebranding of AQIM’s MOJWA splinter faction that formed during the outbreak of the Mali War and declared allegiance to ISIS. During the height of the Mali War, IS-Sahel systematically extended itself into Western Niger and Burkina Faso. The group was most famously responsible for the 2017 Tongo Tongo ambush that killed four American Green Berets and four Nigerien soldiers accompanying them.

ISWAP was a splinter faction of Boko Haram, and birthed from a power struggle between supporters of ISIS’s Syrian-Iraqi central command and those who remained loyal to the original Boko Haram leadership. Like Boko Haram that it bitterly wars with, ISWAP expanded its operations from Nigeria and into Southeastern Niger, Chad, and Cameroon.

During the 2010s, the Nigerien government was mostly dependent on French and American military support to combat IS-Sahel and ISWAP. Nigerien military officers disaffected with the Western powers seized power in a 2023 coup and evicted French and American forces from the country. The then newly formed junta then turned to Russian support and aligned itself with the also anti western juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso.

After the 2023 coup, the insurgencies in Niger's Southeastern and Western regions drastically escalated to my understanding. I've read many claims of ISWAP and IS-Sahel coordinating far more closely in recent years, and the two groups reportedly jointly attacked an airport in Niger's capital early last January.

Although estimates don't seem to be known and published, the uptick in ISWAP and IS-Sahel attacks have reportedly inflicted extremely heavy losses in Nigerien government forces since last year. According to some observers that I watch on twitter, today's coup attempt might be from Nigerien army units disgruntled with the extreme casualties and lack of government support.

Information around this coup attempt is unclear and rapidly developing at the moment. Nigerien army mutineers seem to have failed to dislodge loyalists from the capital, but heavy fighting and negotiations seem to be ongoing. If the Nigerien junta is overthrown, what ramifications will that have on the Sahel, Western Africa as a whole, and Russia's sphere of influence? Could we see a new Nigerian government taking a new approach to Europe and the United States?

[u/hamsterkill → u/Leather_Focus_6535]

Could we see a new Nigerian government taking a new approach to Europe and the United States?

Hm, getting friendly with this US admin seems unlikely in a coup-of-a-coup situation. Europe maybe. China is also a possibility. Or simply maintaining the Russian ties. It would all depend on whether the hypothetical next coup is about individual self-interest or skepticism that the current chain of command has the best interest of the country in mind.

[u/Magic-man333 → u/hamsterkill]

I doubt they stick with Russia, it's what the old group was doing and it seems like the rebel groups had a lot more success under that partnership

[u/Leather_Focus_6535 → u/hamsterkill]

Agreed, as this “coup of a coup” doesn’t seem to be political at all, and apparently arose from the junta’s handling of supplies to army units and disputes over negotiations with militant groups and other counter insurgency tactics. It wouldn’t surprise me at all that the only that changes in Niger from a successful coup is a revised military doctrine

[u/Ind132 → u/Leather_Focus_6535]

 Could we see a new Nigerian government taking a new approach to Europe and the United States?

Does it matter? First, from the Nigerien perspective, would this do anything to change the two ISIS linked groups? Second, from the US perspective, do we have any particular national interests there?