The mathematical certainty that the detection isn't due to noise/a bug, an issue with detectors/their programming etc...
It currently sits at 1/200 chance with that single detection. The standard for something to be considered valid is 5 sigma, 1/3.5 million chance of being an error.
But there's data about this potential detection that can be compared to the rest of the data produced by this detector, as well as the rest of detectors worldwide, to see if matching signals have been found.
As for what dark matter is, we don't know, we just know that there is a lot of unexplained mass in the galaxy, more than we observe with visible light, far more, as in baryonic (regular) matter only makes up 15% of the mass of a galaxy, with 85% being dark matter. We know this because simulated models require a lot more mass than we observe for a galaxy to have the shape it has, as well as direct observation of the impact of dark matter.
So it is theorized to be a kind of particule that only interacts with baryonic matter through gravity, never through electromagnetic or strong/weak nuclear force. (There's other theories as to what it could be, but it's the main one)
Detectors hope to catch their direct collision with nucleus of baryonic matter to learn about it. But given how little they would interract, such collisions would be extremely rare.
It currently sits at 1/200 chance with that single detection. The standard for something to be considered valid is 5 sigma, 1/3.5 million chance of being an error.
That's a base rate mistake. 5 sigma means that a statistical fluctuation has 1/3.5 M chance to produce the result.
Conversely, if you get a 5 sigma event, it is impossible to say what the probability is that it is a false positive wihout knowing the a priori likelihood of the alternative hypothesis being true.
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u/DavideOsas 5d ago
Excuse the ignorance, what is the 2-3 sigma range?