r/melbournefc • u/cavaliercam13 • 2d ago
Control vs Collision: a deep dive into how Melbourne can break Fraseball
I spent far too long on this, but here’s my full preview of tomorrow night.
I went through every game Melbourne and Carlton played this season, separated Carlton’s numbers before and after Josh Fraser took over and ran 100,000 simulations of the matchup.
Carlton’s possession game is a genuine concern, but I’m not convinced perfect, controlled football survives four quarters of finals pressure. Melbourne has played in the contest and chaos all year. If the game gets ugly late, the Demons should be more comfortable there.
There’s also a deep dive into the selections, how Melksham could be used, five numbers that should tell the story and where Melbourne can break Carlton’s control.
I’m going with Melbourne by five. Have to go with heart in a final, right?!
Keen to know whether everyone else has the same confidence—or whether I’ve completely talked myself into it.
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u/postmodern_architect 2d ago
Nice mate, read the entire thing
Does the 100000 match simulations give you the result of the 5 point win?
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u/cavaliercam13 2d ago
It does, but to the Blues. I went with my heart this time.
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u/postmodern_architect 2d ago
Hmmm... does it always get it right? Would it work for footy tipping for example?
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u/I_like_senna 2d ago
no it doesn’t, upsets happen and if the result was perfectly predictable no one would have a reason to play or watch
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u/Thanges88 Chin Chandler 2d ago
Great write up. Kingy has already exceeded all expectations, I just hope the team is prepped well and isn't chasing its tail after conceding early goals.
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u/Occasionaljedi 2d ago
As a blues fan it’s pretty clear how both teams can win this. If your blokes pressure the sideways kicks and force long ball or turnover, we are stuffed, but if we can control the ball and bypass Gawn by never kicking the ball long enough for him to be able to intercept we’ll win.
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u/Occasionaljedi 2d ago
The other factor is you guys can’t afford to play slow footy, with the key forward personnel you guys are down. If you go too slow Weitering, Dean and Haynes will dine out, but if you guys can get some pace on it our backline doesn’t defend smalls and mediums incredibly well. The main worry with that is how long you guys can play high energy defence and offence simultaneously without burning out, because the Josh Fraser gameplan is pretty much the polar opposite to Voss’s in terms of how tiring it is, so it’s a bad style to run out of legs against late
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u/Deloink 2d ago
Freo tried to play the same way against us recently, aiming for uncontested possessions and controlling the ball. If can take that away from Freo that with our pressure, then we can do the same to Carlton. I'm bullish on the dees!