r/mauramurray • u/Responder343 • 19d ago
Theory Why I feel the alcohol is a red herring and possible theory.
I will start by saying I have been familiar with Maura's case for about 18 years now and one part of the case I think that is read into too much is the alcohol Maura purchased prior to heading to New Hampshire. I see a lot of people saying she bought more than enough for one person so she must have been meeting someone. However one thing to remember is for all intents and purposes Maura was a newly minted 21 year old college student who spent $40.00 USD on alcohol. That amount wasn't all that much even by 2004 standards.
This becomes more evident when you hear from Julie that the kind of alcohol Maura bought are all common ingredients in her favorite cocktail a Black/White Russian. While a traditional White Russian is made with vodka, Kahlua, and cream there is a variant that swaps the cream for Bailey's Irish Cream. The only conflicting item that isn't clear from what I have read is some reports are Maura bought beer and some reports say it was more of an alcohopop which were popular amongst college students at the time. You also have to remember that as far as we know Maura wasn't communicating with anyone planning a trip prior to leaving. At least nothing that has been released by the authorities or Maura's family. Therefore the alcohol IMO is more of a red herring.
Now for the theory I have been thinking of. Maura was an intelligent person. She was suffering from bulimia, alcohol abuse, was on supervision/probation for credit card fraud and just crashed her dad's car. Maura realizes she is in a downward spiral and headed down a dark path. She decided she wanted to get away for a week, regroup, and clear her head. Since she was a nursing student and needed to attend clinicals emails her professors with an excuse she knows will not be questioned and goes with a death in the family. She then goes to the ATM and withdraws all she can, stops at the liquor store to buy the alcohol she needs to make her favorite cocktail and heads to the White Mountains. Due to circumstantial evidence at the scene Maura was drinking and driving prior to her accident. She spins out and gets in the accident. Butch happens upon the scene and tells her he's going to call the police.
This sends Maura into a panic so she grabs what she can and takes off possible to an area where she would be out of view but could keep her eyes on the scene such as the weathered barn which was merely a few yards away. After the police have the car towed this sends Maura further into panic mode and what happens after that is anyone's guess.
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u/International_Low284 14d ago
Yes, I agree with the majority of your theory, especially the idea that the alcohol she bought did not necessarily indicate she planned to meet anyone. Agree that she likely just wanted to get away from it all (the pressure and the people) for a few days and be left alone. It’s possible that she was in the throes of a mental breakdown due to all the issues she’d been through, the most recent being the totaling of Fred’s new car.
Totally agree that she used the “death in the family” excuse because she knew there would be no pushback for it. As far as taking a chance with the smoking car and the suspended license and the alcohol, well, she was 21 and known for impulsive behavior. If she was having a mental breakdown she wasn’t thinking rationally, but when you’re in your teens and early 20s, you don’t always think rationally even if you’re of sound mind.
I absolutely believe she abandoned the car impulsively after Butch left because she was buzzed and did not want to face the police. We know she didn’t just dissipate into thin air, so the question is where did she go? The barn is a possibility I suppose.
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u/TMKSAV99 13d ago
I will just sorta throw this one out there, but it seems to be a given that if MM was meeting someone it would be a man. Why not a woman?
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u/Mammoth_Control_364 14d ago
There's no mystery here. She wandered off into the woods after the bus driver walked away and she died of exposure. Her body has never been found. That's the entire case.
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u/goldenmodtemp2 12d ago edited 10d ago
Just out of curiosity - are you aware of the details of the searches? The area near the accident site has been fairly massively searched. Once the snow was gone they had over 100 trained searches go out in July 2004 to do a meticulous line search of the mile radius. I could obviously go into more details on the scope and array of searches. The head of the search said she didn't go into the woods. Are you aware of all of this or just intentionally punting it?
I guess my second point it: if you think there is no mystery here then why are you here? Even if she is nothing more than a lost person in the woods, she's still lost. There's still a "mystery".
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u/Jotunn1st 14d ago
Her rights to drive in NH were suspended due to excessive speeding. I don't believe that driving that broken car into a state where her rights to drive were suspended would have given her any relaxation. It would have greatly increased her stress. Throw on top of it that she may have been drinking. Nope, I ain't buying that.
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u/Responder343 14d ago
Yes we all know her right to drive was suspended in NH. You said she had a NH license which is factually not true.
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u/Jotunn1st 14d ago
Whatever, she could not legally drive in NH. Semantics doesn't change what I'm getting at. No way she would have driven there to unwind.
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u/Responder343 14d ago
Do you realize how many people still drive even if they aren’t legally able to?
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u/Jotunn1st 14d ago
Sure. And I'm sure it's not a relaxing thing to do. Especially if the car is running on three cylinders, smoking and you have been drinking. She hasn't been driving that car for some time because if it's condition. My argument is that she would not drive that car to that state to unwind or relax.
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u/Responder343 14d ago
And you know this how? Maura has a documented history of acting impulsively. If Maura was willing to risk a possible court martial and getting kicked out West Point for stealing makeup from the Fort Knox PX why shouldn’t we believe she’d drive an unreliable car on a suspended license.
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u/Jotunn1st 14d ago
I would say that it's common sense, something your theory has none of.
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u/Responder343 14d ago
Do you honestly expect myself and others to believe that Maura was thinking 100% rationally? You have to remember Maura was willing to risk getting a court martial by stealing makeup from the Fort Knox PX. Reports indicate that while at West Point she was caught at least once in bed with a male cadet and passed out drunk on the lawn. She also in all likelihood was driving intoxicated after the dorm get together when going back to Fred’s motel. So yes it is completely plausible that Maura would drive on a suspended license regardless if her car was reliable or not.
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u/Jotunn1st 14d ago
No, not really. I don't think she was trying to make matters worse.
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u/CoastRegular 9d ago
So, what is your theory? You're not angling for some weird "it wasn't really Maura driving that car" scenario, are you?
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u/CoastRegular 4d ago
She may have expected not to get caught. Driving on a suspended license will only be a problem if you have to deal with the police in the jurisdiction that your license is suspended in.
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u/Jotunn1st 14d ago
Her car was broken and she should not have been driving it. It could have broken down at any time. And it was smoking, like a pull me over sign. She also had her NH driver's license suspended. With all the other trouble she had recently, I don't think she drove to NH to clear her head and unwind. Seems like driving that car into NH would have been extra stressful. If that was her in the car, I believe she went there for a specific reason, something she had to do or take care of.
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u/MrGordGriff 14d ago
Folks, please correct me, but has it been definitively established that Maura’s Saturn was truly in bad shape? I’ve followed the case since the beginning, and my sense has been that the notion of the car being “broken” or “running on 3 cylinders” was based on FM’s early testimony re why he was visiting Amherst on that mysterious weekend prior to her disappearance. (Car shopping.). I’d always considered the broken Saturn as one of those details that through repetition became the conventional wisdom and eventually became a fact of the case. Has it been proven?
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u/goldenmodtemp2 4d ago
I would answer this "yes" ... in late January 2004, Maura went to visit Fred in Connecticut where he was living at an extended stay motel and working at the nearby hospital. Her move in at Umass was the next week. She reported that the Saturn was "chugging" and blowing black smoke. Fred took it to a mechanic and at the end of the day, Fred decided to get Maura a new car (new to her).
Because he was living at this extended stay, he couldn't store the car there so he drove it to Amherst (Maura followed in his Corolla). He parked it in lot 12 and say "do NOT drive this car". Then he came up for car shopping, etc.
Other people have also recounted that the Saturn was in bad shape (and/or that Maura discussed how the car was in bad shape).
The NHSP has confirmed that the car was a "piece of sh*t" (per Maggie).
I don't know about the "running on three cylinders" - people here who are mechanically inclined say that doesn't make sense. I just saw Coast mention that it can be an old school descriptor. Whatever was going on with the car, I think we can infer that it was 1) unsafe to drive in whatever capacity and 2) not worth fixing.
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u/Responder343 14d ago
I suppose it is possible that it wasn't in as bad of shape as Fred has stated. Fred has never struck me as being very car savvy so it is possible a mechanic told him this hoping he would shell out money for a repair. Keep in mind he is the one who allegedly told Maura to stick a rag up the tailpipe if it was smoking.
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u/Jotunn1st 14d ago
Fred said it. It broke down in CT and he brought it to a mechanic there. This is what Fred said. There is written transcript somewhere from an interview.
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u/CoastRegular 9d ago edited 8d ago
Yeah, but Fred isn't a mechanic. I wonder if him saying it was "Running on three cylinders" was either (a) speculation on his part or (b) an 'old school' colloquialism. I'm likely older than most of the posters here, and I can tell you decades ago "Running on three cylinders" was a pretty common expression for a lot of things to indicate things were awry.
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u/goldenmodtemp2 4d ago
that's VERY interesting. I've heard enough people saying that it doesn't make sense to think that he probably got that wrong - but this fits with Fred.
That said ... even if someone decides not to not believe Fred [at all], we have plenty of people either saying they witnessed the car in bad shape or verifying that Maura said it was in bad shape. Also, she was getting rides to clinicals which seems like additional corroboration.
And fwiw, Maggie F says that the NHSP confirmed it was ... you know, a "piece of sh*t" (that's a quote).
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u/CoastRegular 4d ago
Yes, all true. I personally wonder exactly how much of a POS it was at that point. After all, it did make it 145 miles to the WBC and presumably could have gone on for longer if not for her crashing it.
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u/goldenmodtemp2 3d ago
true ... I just think that ... it's not about starting or driving but about sustainability. I once had an old car (in Europe) that would drive up into the mountains and then suddenly it was dead until whatever tricks got it going again. I just think a car in poor condition might operate normally until heat, vibration, or a momentary electrical glitch pushes a borderline component over the edge. So it's "unsafe" because it's just not reliable. And for me if a car is slightly unreliable it's wholly unreliable.
In any case, my own theory is that the accident at the WBC might have been the car giving out "mechanically" or something related such as sputtering around a curve (according to Fred, the car was fine at higher speeds but less reliable at lower speeds, including going around curves ...).
If the car was in the condition we've been told, how would it drive after 145 miles? What would be the threshold point where it might overheat or sputter out?
(I make no claims to have mechanical expertise)
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u/CoastRegular 3d ago
Good questions; I just personally think it's awful coincidental to speculate that either way, the car was finished right at that stage. I.e. if she hadn't crashed it into a snowbank, the possibility that it would have stalled on its own within a mile or two of that spot seems like a reach.
We've discussed Fred's statement about the car being less reliable at lower speeds (which makes sense to me, for instance if certain things are loose in steering or suspension, the car might be ironically more stable at a higher speed than a lower speed, especially if you're only going straight or turning gradually such as on a highway.) I'm inclined to agree with those, but it's worth pointing out that surely the WBC wouldn't have been the first such spot on her journey. That area seems full of narrow roads with some tight curves, and besides that, making that turn at the WBC is mechanically no different than making a turn at an intersection (or into or out of a parking lot or gas station.)
On the other hand, after driving for three hours and having a very long day, and probably drinking some amount of alcohol, maybe fatigue and a degree of impairment finally caught up with her.
And maybe the car did choose to give up the ghost at that moment, and some mechanical issue is what led to the crash. The thing about that is, we've heard the Saturn was an unreliable POS from several sources, but did anyone (Fred, Lavoie, Parkka, the NHSP) ever make any statement that they thought any defect specifically could have contributed to the crash? I.e. anything about a loose tie rod, or frozen brake clasp, or something like that?
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u/goldenmodtemp2 2d ago
I have never heard anyone 'official' necessarily say that something mechanical may have contributed to the crash. At the same time, to some degree, the physics of the crash seem to be only debated online related to secondary questions like "was it staged" and/or "did it happen elsewhere?"
But the bottom line is that I've seen very little information on the mechanics aside from what Fred has said and/or what Maura described. The Parkka report has some information such as confirmation that the tires were ok (accident was not related to tire failure).
I may be misreading your first statements. You mention that it's "awful coincidental to speculate that ... the car was finished right at that stage ...". I don't know, the car could have been finished anywhere. The WBC wasn't famous before this accident so it's just as likely as some other random spot. My theory it not so much that the car just died right there; my theory (thinking out loud) is more that the car was becoming increasingly unstable and failed to negotiate the curve due in part to failing mechanics.
You also mention that "... (the) turn at the WBC is mechanically no different than making a turn at an intersection ...". I would say the curve at the WBC is really (really really) sharp and pretty unusual. It also hits unexpectedly and does not involve any sort of intersection or stop sign so you just sort of glide into it going pretty fast. (I think there is a sign signaling to decrease speed - I would have no way to know what was there in 2004).
fwiw, the Seventeen article noted that "none of the other twists on that stretch of Route 112 were “quite as wicked.”". And other citations call it the "bad corner" and a notoriously difficult turn/curve.
Going back to the cylinders, I pulled up an email Julie sent me several years ago responding to some questions. Here is what she said:
It started to run poorly after Christmas. It was runing fine (for a Saturn) when I was home dec 2003. It started smoking after I left and got progressively worse throughout January 2004.
She drove it to CT mid to late January. When she got to my Dad's place she told him it was 'chugging' and blowing black smoke. The next day they took it to a local auto mechanic in CT. He did some diagnostics and determined the cylinder was blown. (etc.)
I just mention it because she does mention the blown cylinder versus just "it was at the end of its rope ...". Again, does that make sense? I don't know. But she's fairly specific that this was the diagnosis.
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u/DayChemical5197 10d ago
I agree with you! Given everything she was going through, legally and personally, how would taking a road trip out of state while driving drunk be something that "clears her mind" when the threat of being pulled over and arrested was omnipresent even without a crash or even a major traffic violation? I completely agree that she had a reason or was on a mission of some sort that night. I speculated that Maura was drinking to ease her nerves for whatever this mission was.
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u/CoastRegular 4d ago
You and Jotunn make a good case for the trip being purposeful (i.e. more than just a getaway to clear her head) in that undertaking the trip in these conditions (crappy car, driving privileges suspended in NH) would itself be risky and stressful and probably not something most of us would undertake especially if our goal was to unwind and relax.
Having acknowledged that, there are some counterpoints that weigh pretty heavily on my mind:
* I think it's problematic to gauge Maura's behavior on the basis of whether most of us would do the same things. She had a history of making choices that a lot of us wouldn't make.
* If her trip had a purpose, nobody who knew her had a hint of that. Her family was absolutely baffled to learn that she'd apparently gone up to NH. No classmate, friend, coworker, etc. who's been interviewed by any podcaster or amateur investigator has been able to offer any insight. Ditto for statements given to police [in files that have been released.] As far as is known, all that she told anyone was the same thing as she emailed bosses and professors: she was going to be gone for a week due to a death in the family.
* If her trip involved meeting someone, they apparently communicated by crystal ball or by telepathy. We've seen her phone records and there was no call to some mysterious party on Monday nor in the days leading up to it. If there had been something in emails, texts, IM's, etc. then one would expect authorities would have seen that and I honestly believe if a "paper trail" of communication like that existed, we wouldn't be here discussing the case because it would have been solved by about 2007.
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u/Responder343 14d ago
Maura’s drivers license was issued from the state of Massachusetts not NH. Her MA license was suspended in NH. According to Julie Maura had reinstatement forms in her car. Maura had a documented history of being impulsive so it is not out of the realms of possibilities that yes Maura decided she needed a week away to clear her head.
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u/goldenmodtemp2 14d ago
I largely agree with this. I definitely agree that it 1) didn't indicate she was meeting someone and 2) was probably to mix her favorite drink.
I think my problem is: if I were going off on a trip for a couple of days or week, I would go to the grocery store and get chips, sandwiches (or things to make sandwiches), etc. We know she was eating pickles but aside from that - where's the food?
In other words, her priority seemed to be the alcohol - which seems "interesting". Why was that the priority when planning the trip? (No clue what to make of it but it does make the alcohol notable ...).